1. Innovative and effective approaches to climate change: Experiences from the Global Climate Change Alliance Brussels 12 th -14 th September 2012 Mainstreaming climate change into national development planning Session 9, Day 1, 12 th September 2012

2. 拚 冒險 Thomas E Downing Global Climate Adaptation Partnership

3. Jackson Pollock’s Convergence, an example of an artistic tradition of filling the canvass. Is this what you are looking for in mapping the adaptation space?

4. NO SINGLE DEFINITION Adaptation involves changes in social-ecological systems in response to actual and expected impacts of climate change in the context of interacting nonclimatic changes. Adaptation strategies and actions can range from short-term coping to longer-term, deeper trans- formations, aim to meet more than climate change goals alone, and may or may not succeed in moderating harm or exploiting beneficial opportunities. Moser & Ekstrom, 2010. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation

5. Actors are organised in networks of formal relationships, information flows, finance, influence and shared purposes Source: GCAP & GeoSAS, net-map protocol GCCA mainstreaming actions, in 17 countries and 4 regions, are the focus of over half of the GCCA interventions

6. CONTESTED ACTOR-NETWORKS There are many entry points, conventionally organised according to: Awareness, knowledge and information Policy and vision Strategic planning and procedures Operational implementation

7. Adaptation strategies reflect theories of change Source: John Colvin, from Oxfam (Green, 2011)

8. NO SINGLE THEORY OF CHANGE Mainstreaming has multiple faces: Polly promotes complex vulnerability models as a means to raise awareness, build technical capacity and ensure that the potential range of risks is considered in development planning. Vikrom is developing a leadership programme to mentor and stimulate elites in linking their understanding of the science-policy interface to action in their own domains. Carmen seeks to bring ecosystem-based adaptation into the thinking and planning frames of small enterprises by linking current climate risks to their business models.

9. Adaptation covers a spectrum of strategies and activities Source: GCAP, based on various publications Good development Reduced current vulnerability Adaptive capacity and planning Climate resilience Targeted climate change actions Over 80% of the GCCA mainstreaming actions focus on good development and poverty reduction

10. A CONTINUUM OF ACTION Modes of adaptation reflect… Particular stakeholder visions, framing and decision spaces Timelines, pathways and progressions toward ‘attributable’ climate impacts

11. Transformation in the decision space occurs at nodes that define strategies, baseline investment and finance. Vulnerability baseline Socio-economic status Historical exposure Trends in risk Early branch Reduce current vulnerability Increase adaptive capacity Rule out worst-case scenarios Major options Robust against a range of future Increased options Scaling up solutions Range of future outcomes Socio-economic vulnerability Climate conditions & risks Ability to meet development targets Adaptation is a socio-institutional process with path-dependency Source: GCAP

12. WAY-FINDING BEYOND MILESTONES Are we now able to identify measures of an adaptation pathway… Conversion of data into information, knowledge and wisdom Transformation of institutions as change-makers Transparency, accountability and effective finance

13. If we can’t predict the future, can we act today? … the journey continues TDowning@ClimateAdaptation.cc