1. 1 Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM May 29, 2008 NUOPC

2. 2 Purpose Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals Status Next Steps

3. 3 NUOPC Background 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC –Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007 –Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84) 2008 – Appointed Project Manager –Executing NUOPC Phase I –ESG approved interim committee chairmen –Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008

4. 4 NUOPC Vision (2015) Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) Managed operational ensemble diversity Joint ensemble –Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather –Mission Specific ensemble products National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

5. 5 NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II FOC Beta Test Phase III STAFFING CODE CONV. MGMT REPORTG MOA INIT.STANDARDSSOFTWARE CONVERSION OPERATIONS OUTREACH MAINTAIN Full Staff Common Rqmts, Rsch AgendaDTC/VTC ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALSEXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP FOC Quarterly Updates to Principals STANDARDS PARTICIPATION TT PM, TEMPS IOC-2 IOC-1 PROTOTYPE OPS

6. 6 Status PM appointed Rest of staff being acquired – DPM, etc. IOC-1 Redefined –Delivering NAEFS w/FNMOC Participation –Pursuing funding for three stretch goals Definition of NUOPC –Three interim committees being formed –Chairmen of committees approved –Membership being fleshed out Meeting with committee chairs today

7. 7 Info & Outreach Briefings COPC (November 15, 2007) AMS (Jan 22, 2008, New Orleans) NOAA/NCEP (March 13, 2008) Navy/FNMOC (April 2, 2008) Stakeholders - R&D Community (29 April 2008, ONR) –NASA –FAA –OFCM –NOAA/OAR/NCEP/EMC/NODC –ONR/NRL –NCAR –DoD

8. 8 Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher Executive Steering Group NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD LtCol Bruce Lambert Brian Moore LtCol Bruce Lambert Brian Moore Kim Curry Steve Payne Kim Curry Steve Payne Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Technology Transition Technology Transition Agency Liaisons Agency Liaisons Interim Committees Interim Committees Common Model Architecture Common Model Architecture Unified Ensemble Operations Unified Ensemble Operations NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley NUOPC Management Structure

9. 9 Interim Committee Process Common Model Architecture –to facilitate accelerated transition and sharing of technological advances Technology Transition Process –Common process and DTC to accelerate transition of internal and external research –Coordinated research investment to address common operational needs Unified Ensemble Operations –Shared processing burden, coordinated schedules, coordinated post-processing

10. 10 Committee Goals Minimize operational center disruption Achieve common architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway Achieve full stakeholder support Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

11. 11 IOC-1 Status NAEFS Implementation on Track –FNMOC ensembles flowing to NCEP since 1 April –Represents base IOC-1 IOC-1 Stretch Goals Defined –Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Product –Joint Wind-Seas Product –TC Track Uncertainty Guidance –6 to14 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance Seeking funding for stretch goals

12. 12 Next Steps Meet with Committee Chairs today Identify committee members ESG approve membership Initiate committee meetings Pursue funding for stretch goals Establish forum for community awareness and input Initiate one-on-one outreach meetings to primary R&D providers

13. 13 Questions & Comments

14. 14 The NUOPC Partnership Coordinated technology development for future systems Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC) Prioritization of common operational needs Aligned transition processes Joint ensemble system with managed diversity –Share operational computing costs –Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications –Significant acceleration in operational performance Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)

15. 15 NUOPC Description The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri- Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization NUOPC is not: –An R&D or acquisition project –A unified management system for operations or acquisition –A unification of agency missions

16. 16 Expectations NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational production facilities to improve efficiency through collaboration. Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway. The secondary objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

17. 17 Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09 Phase I Tasks Begin Phase II Implementation IOC-1 Committees/Panels work tasks PM & Staff Review Interagency Review & Coord Committee Tasks Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approve Standards Draft Standards Reports Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS PM & Staff integrate Committee task results PM & Staff review committees’ progress Coord Appoint Agencies Appoint Committee Reps Follow up Jan 08 Jan 09 May 09 Sep 09 Committee Reports to PM & Staff Apr 08Jul 08Oct 08Jan 09Apr 08 ESG Approve & Hire PM Select Jan 08