1. Climate Change, Energy & Biofuels October 28, 2011

2. 2 Presentation outline Motivation Energy use trends Renewable options Lignocellulosic biofuels Environmental, societal and economic issues

3. 3 Motivation Dealing with issues of the next several decades −Worldwide population increase −Increase in energy use −Climate change issues

4. 4 Presentation outline Motivation Energy use trends Renewable options Lignocellulosic biofuels Environmental, societal and economic issues

5. Climate change and CO 2 emissions CO 2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use 586266707478828690949802 Year 310 325 350 375 CO2 Concentration (PPM) Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii Monthly Average CO2 Concentration The global temperature is increasing Although the scientific case is complicated, there is a very real connection What are the options to reduce CO 2 ?

6. 6 Source: IEA WEO Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030) Energy Demand (bnboe) Rapid demand growth across all sectors Key:- industry- transport- power- buildings Energy demand more than doubles in our lifetime

7. Mean Global Energy Consumption (Total 13 TW) GasHydroRenew 4.52 2.7 2.96 0.286 1.21 0.286 0.828 0 1 2 3 4 5 TerraWatts OilCoalBiomassNuclear Source: Nate Lewis, Caltech

8. * - excludes traditional biomass Source: IEA 2002 2030 Current and predicted energy use Key: - oil- coal - gas- nuclear- hydro - modern renewables Global Primary Energy Supply by Fuel*:

9. 9 Global fossil resources R/P Ratio 41 yrs. R/P Ratio 67 yrs. R/P Ratio 164 yrs. Proven Yet to Find Source: World Energy Assessment, BP Stat Review Unconventional Reserves & Resources (bnboe)

10. 10 Fossil fuel supply and demand Source: BP Statistical Review 78% 10% 61% 15% 88% 65% 22% 90% 39% 85% 12% 35% DemandSupply OilNatural GasCoal 3 Largest Energy Markets (N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific) Rest of World DemandSupplyDemandSupply

11. Global energy sources and uses Source: IEA WEO nuclear 14Mboe/d wind, solar 5Mboe/d biomass 23Mboe/d coal 43Mboe/d gas 38Mboe/d oil 63Mboe/d power generation 76Mboe/d industry 33Mboe/d buildings 40Mboe/d transportation 37Mboe/d Total = 186Mboe/d

12. 12 Global energy sources and uses Source: IEA WEO 2004 Not all energy is the same nuclear 14Mboe/d renewables 5Mboe/d biomass 23Mboe/d coal 43Mboe/d gas 38Mboe/d oil 63Mboe/d power generation 76Mboe/d industry 33Mboe/d buildings 40Mboe/d transportation 37Mboe/d

13. Essential Energy: Can we really keep doing this? USA 308M China 1.3B India 1.15B Other OECD Source: Author estimates from IEA and World Bank data. Bubble diameter is proportional to population Energy and Income, by Country, Income, and Population (2005) Japan 128M Courtesy of D. Roland-Holst

14. 14 Presentation outline Motivation Energy use trends Renewable options Lignocellulosic biofuels Environmental, societal and economic issues

15. Potential of carbon neutral energy sources Hydro Tides & currents WindGeothermalSolarCurrent use 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 TW ? Nuclear Source: Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization, DOE

16. Global energy sources and uses Source: IEA WEO Not all energy is the same nuclear 14Mboe/d wind, solar 5Mboe/d biomass 23Mboe/d coal 43Mboe/d gas 38Mboe/d oil 63Mboe/d power generation 76Mboe/d industry 33Mboe/d buildings 40Mboe/d transportation 37Mboe/d

17. 17 Transportation accounts for slightly less than 20% of energy demand Oil accounts for roughly 98% of energy demand for transport Significant quantities of oil in short to medium term Liquid hydrocarbons contain relatively high quantities of energy for their volume and weight Key challenges −Climate change −Security of supply −Meeting future demand Transportation sector

18. 18 It’s really hard to beat liquid hydrocarbons Liquid H 2 Gasoline 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0 0 10 20 30 “Weight” Gravimetric Energy Density MJ/g “Volume” Volumetric Energy Density MJ/L Source: Argonne National Labs Li-ion Batteries

19. 19 Concern relating to Threat of Climate Change Concern related to Security of Supply High Low Adv. Biofuels Carbon Free H 2 for Transport CTLGTL Heavy Oil Enhanced Recovery Ultra Deep Water Arctic Capture & Storage CNG Hybrids C&S - supply side options - demand side options Key: Vehicle Efficiency (e.g. light weighting) Two key energy considerations for transport – security and climate

20. We need fuels for transportation that are cleaner and renewable Options for transportation fuels? Need to look at options in biorenewables

21. ~90,000 TW of energy arrives on the earth’s surface from the sun 5% of land or 650 MHa Land 29.1% Water 70.9% Amount of land needed for 13 TW at 1% efficiency

22. Biomass and carbon neutral fuels CO 2 Plants Photosynthesis Sunlight CO 2 Ag practices Land conversion Fertilizer use Transportation Processing But it depends on how the plants are grown and processed CO 2

23. Renewable Fuel Standard (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 Year Biofuel Volume (billion gallons) Biodiesel General Advanced Cellulosic Advanced Conventional Previous RFS Advanced

24. 24 Presentation outline Motivation Energy use trends Renewable options Lignocellulosic biofuels Environmental, societal and economic issues

25. 25 Environmental, social and economic dimensions Environmental −GHGs, water use, indirect land use Societal −Food vs. fuel competition Economics −Micro: farmers and biorefineries (markets and networks, investments) −Macro: national and international levels (trade) Law and Policy −Agricultural regulations, subsidies, taxes

26. Choose the right plants in the right places Campbell et al., Env. Sci. Technol. (2008) The United States has 38 million acres of non-cultivated cropland Total US land2.3 billion acres (2,300,000,000) Total cropland406,424,909 acres (17.6% of total US land) Harvested cropland (07)309,607,601 acres (13.5% of total US land) The world has a total of 1 billion acres of abandoned agricultural land

27. Ag biotechnology is essential Source: USDA The only way forward: Agricultural productivity growth Courtesy of D. Roland-Holst

28. 28 High yield decreases transportation and land costs Richard Hamilton, Ceres 500,000 gal/day scenario

29. Potential for Biomass The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established a 36-billion-gallon mandate for biofuels by 2022 Using lignocellulosic methods on Miscanthus giganteus would require 18 million acres, or 5.8% of harvested cropland Current ethanol production methods would require over 70 million acres, or 25% of harvested cropland Sources: S. Long, UIUC, and Increasing Feedstock Production for Biofuels, BR&Di, 2007 Campbell et al., Env. Sci. Technol. (2008) ASAP Article, 10.1021/es800052w

30. Thank you energybiosciencesinstitute.org

31. Overview of Brazilian sugarcane 2007-08 harvest 528 MMT ~8 M Ha planted by 2008 ~20 B liters ethanol, 2007 ~80-120 T/Ha ~6400 L ethanol/Ha ~333 mills, 200 planned Positive for GHG aspect