“The Perfect Demographic Storm” College Board National Forum October, 2005 Andre Bell Vice President College & University Enrollment Services.

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Presentation transcript:

“The Perfect Demographic Storm” College Board National Forum October, 2005 Andre Bell Vice President College & University Enrollment Services

Andre Bell Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks in 2009 and doesn’t recover until 2018… Source: WICHE/The College Board

Andre Bell Number of High School Graduates, : United States Source: WICHE/The College Board

Andre Bell Number of High School Graduates, : Southern, Southwestern, & Western Regions Source: WICHE/The College Board South Southwest West

Andre Bell Number of High School Graduates, : Middle States, Midwestern & New England Regions Source: WICHE/The College Board Middle States Midwest New England

Andre Bell Number of High School Graduates, : By CB Regional Totals Source: WICHE/The College Board

Andre Bell National Tuition and Fee History and 10 Year Growth Projection

Andre Bell Tuition & Fees and Median Incomes Ages

Andre Bell Tuition and Fees/ Median Income Ages

Andre Bell Pell Grants: Total Pell Expenditures, Maximum Pell Grant, and Average Pell Grant in Constant (2003) Dollars, to

Andre Bell State Grants: Total Need-Based and Non-Need-Based State Grant Aid in Constant (2003) Dollars, 1982 to 2002

Andre Bell Percent of Total Undergraduate State Aid Not Based on Need, 1982 to 2002

Andre Bell Historic HS Graduates and College Participation Rates HS Completion Is the Challenge What if there is a 7% increase?

Andre Bell Minority Enrollment by Type

Andre Bell Minority Group Enrollment by Institution Type

Andre Bell Distribution by Type and Control: A Disproportionate Picture…

Andre Bell Data Sources Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) / The College Board Trends in Student Aid, The College Board 2004 U.S. Census Bureau, Historical Income Tables P series for subgroups by age : 2003 Minorities in Higher Education: Annual Status Report, American Council on Education 2003, data source US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports School enrollment and economic characteristics of students, U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NECS) The Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac Issues