How long will it take for Red Delicious to start making money? David Allan and David Marshall January 11, 2001.

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Presentation transcript:

How long will it take for Red Delicious to start making money? David Allan and David Marshall January 11, 2001

Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers Alternate bearing since 1994, but production appears to be trending downward in deference to other varieties. When will it level off?

Source: Growers Clearing House

Can advertising affect this declining demand line?

Assuming a reduction of 2.5 million boxes each year, we will reach economic viability around ’03/05. Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

If Red Growers react slower, and production drops by 1.5 million boxes each year, we wouldn’t get down to profitable levels until 2005 / Later -- if demand is still dropping. Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

Source: Growers Clearing House

Old Red Crop Shipments Crop Crop Total Shipments 52,22241,397 Shipped After Sep 1 of New 1, % 2, % Source: Yakima Valley Growers & Shippers

Source: Growers Clearing House

Source: US Apple, 1998

Source: US Apple, 2000

Source: Pure Speculation WHAT IF WE REMOVED… 36% of the Red Production 20% of the Gold production 50% of the Rome and McIntosh, 50% of the 'other' varieties, especially those grown for processing. ????? WHAT WILL FILL THE HOLE?

Contact Info: David Allan 3630 Lateral B Wapato, WA David Marshall 408 North First Street Yakima, WA Copies of this material are available upon request. This Power Point presentation can be downloaded at: