1. Quality Information. Informed Choices. The Northwest Economy … Breaking out of Recession? Oregon City County Managers’ Association Graham Slater March 17, 2004

2. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Key Facts … NW states are growing … Natural resources and manufacturing are still important to these states … Employment declines appear to be over. Employment gains are happening only slowly. Rural areas often struggle economically.

3. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Recession and Recovery in Oregon Comparing with Washington Looking to Future Workforce Needs Note: Many Oregon comments apply very similarly to Washington.

4. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Oregon’s unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in February -- the lowest level in two and a half years.

5. Quality Information. Informed Choices. And the labor force is picking up again – the second highest level on record.

6. Quality Information. Informed Choices. The number of unemployed has fallen by 30,000 … but remains 50,000 above pre-recession levels.

7. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Oregon’s January rate was back to being the nation’s highest … –Oregon's Jan 2004 rate = 7.7%. Ranks 1st nationwide. –Rates ranged from 2.9% to 7.7%. The average was 5.1%; the midpoint of all 50 states was 5.0%. –Highest rates: Oregon (7.7%), Alaska (7.3%), and Michigan (6.6%). –Lowest rates: South Dakota (2.9%), North Dakota (3.0%), Delaware (3.4%).

8. Quality Information. Informed Choices. For a variety of reasons, we’re consistently above the U.S. average.

9. Quality Information. Informed Choices. High and low unemployment rates were distributed in an unusual fashion in 2003.

10. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Portland’s unemployment rate has been hugely impacted by the recession.

11. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Employment has been generally increasing since bottoming out in June 2003.

12. Quality Information. Informed Choices. For only the second time in almost three years, employment is above year-ago levels. Employment now 3,800 above year-ago.

13. Quality Information. Informed Choices. … but we’re 40,000 down from three- year-ago levels.

14. Quality Information. Informed Choices. It’s really starting to look like maybe we’ve seen the worst of this recession.

15. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Most industry groups have shown growth since employment bottomed out in June.

16. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Construction ended the year with strength.

17. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Manufacturing – growing six of the seven last months.

18. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Professional and business services is looking stable.

19. Quality Information. Informed Choices. The private sector has added 10,000 jobs since bottoming out.

20. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Government employment has stabilized, following job losses in 2003.

21. Quality Information. Informed Choices. The slowdown in computer-related manufacturing employment seems to have leveled off.

22. Quality Information. Informed Choices. After declining in 2001, average wages picked up slightly in 2002.

23. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Recession and Recovery in Oregon Comparing with Washington Looking to Future Workforce Needs

24. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Washington’s Economy: Historically, Washington’s economy has been known for its agriculture and forest products industry. Washington is still the number one apple producing state in the union. Since World War II, when the federal government established defense industries in Washington, manufacturing has grown quickly to become a leading industry in Washington. By the 1990s Washington’s economy had become quite diverse with growth in tourism related industries as well as computer and software industries.

25. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Washington’s nonfarm employment is prone to some downturns from time to time, similar to other northwest states and the nation.

26. Quality Information. Informed Choices. After a prosperous decade in the 1990s, Washington’s employment took a downturn during the recent recession.

27. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Washington’s manufacturing sector struggled this past year, but growth in other sectors was enough to make total nonfarm employment growth positive.

28. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Similar to other northwest states, Washington’s unemployment rate is high during national recessions.

29. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Recession and Recovery in Oregon Comparing with Washington Looking to Future Workforce Needs

30. Quality Information. Informed Choices. According to forecasts, Oregon has hit bottom … but we don’t regain all the jobs until 2Q05.

31. Quality Information. Informed Choices. How does Washington’s economic future look? Despite recent losses in the manufacturing sector, manufacturing will maintain its vital presence in Washington over the long run. Washington’s “high-tech” manufacturing sector will continue to prosper. Some of the more mature natural resource based manufacturing sectors, such as lumber and aluminum, will continue to decline over time due to escalating production costs and national and international competition.

32. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Washington’s employment will continue to grow. However, it will be slower than past growth. Growth will be slower than the historic trend.

33. Quality Information. Informed Choices. In Oregon, services industries are expected to have the most rapid job growth in the next ten years.

34. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Health services tops the list of industries adding jobs.

35. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Health services is also the most rapidly growing industry.

36. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Some traditional industries are losing jobs.

37. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Looking out ten years, all occupational groups in Oregon are expected to show growth.

38. Quality Information. Informed Choices. Employers will fill more positions with workers leaving the occupation than from new positions created.

39. Quality Information. Informed Choices. For more information: Graham Slater –(503) 947-1212 –Graham.J.Slater@state.or.us Visit our web site at: www.QualityInfo.org Contact the “labor market information” staff in your state. (E-mail me … I’ll put you in touch!)