EPIC Use of Agriculture Data Aaron Reeves, MS PhD Quantitative Epidemiologist Epidemiology Research Unit SRUC

About EPIC EPIC is the Scottish Government’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks Our aims: To provide an evidence base and scientifically informed advice to support Scottish Government policy regarding exotic diseases of livestock and poultry To best prepare Scotland for the next major disease incursion

Collaborating institutions

Module 1 Coordination, contingency and communication Module 1 Coordination, contingency and communication Module 2 Animal movements and risk Module 2 Animal movements and risk Module 3 Disease control options Module 3 Disease control options Module 4 Forecasting and horizon scanning Module 4 Forecasting and horizon scanning Module 5 Knowledge exchange Module 5 Knowledge exchange Director and Administration Steering Group Knowledge Exchange Committee

EPIC outputs High quality applied research Policy briefs Qualitative risk assessments Quantitative analyses – In particular, simulation modelling of the spread and control of disease Cost-benefit analyses and other economic assessments

Information regarding the population at risk and key risk factors underlies all epidemiologic investigations

The scale of data used by EPIC

Demographic and disease data currently held by EPIC Annual agricultural censuses for Scotland Annual agricultural censuses for England and Wales Cattle population data for ScotlandRegistered pig keepers in Great Britain Annual sheep and goat inventory Commercial poultry registry Recorded movements of cattle for all of Great Britain (Cattle Tracing System) Recorded movements of sheep and pigs in Scotland (ScotEID) Recorded movements of sheep and pigs in England and Wales (AMLS) Bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) testing data for Scottish farms List of linked holdings for purposes of cattle movement reporting PRIMO-approved pig pyramid premisesRed Tractor quality assurance scheme members Information on agricultural holdings from the Scottish Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS) (forthcoming)

Environmental and wildlife risk factors Land cover types Elevation Precipitation Temperature maps Soil characteristics Topographic shelter Distribution and abundance of red deer Abundance distribution for midges and mosquitoes

Using EPIC data: Modelling FMD

How likely is FMD to spread, depending on where the incursion occurs? Porphyre et al., 2013, PLoS ONE 8(10): e77616

Vaccination for FMD: How beneficial is it, given the site of initial incursion? Porphyre et al., 2013, PLoS ONE 8(10): e77616

Impact of vaccination on FMD epidemic severity Porphyre et al., 2013, PLoS ONE 8(10): e77616 Incursions in southern Scotland: Incursions in northern Scotland:

Bluetongue virus in Scotland Bluetongue affects cattle and sheep The bluetongue virus is transmitted by midges Climatic conditions influence the vector population, thus affecting spread of disease

Conditions appropriate for the spread of Bluetongue virus via midge activity Bessell et al., 2015, ISVEE Proceedings

Data sought for the next EPIC programme Records of individual sheep movements in Scotland (ScotEID) Records of individual sheep movements in England and Wales (Defra) Frequent, timely updates of cattle movement information (ScotEID)

Conditions governing use of agricultural data by EPIC Use of these data by EPIC is governed by (at present) nearly two dozen distinct contracts with data providers  It is not unusual for months/years to be needed to 1) secure contracts and/or 2) receive data Key terms:  Data are to be handled securely at all times  Data can be used only for projects funded via EPIC More specific terms may further restrict use within EPIC to particular projects or analyses  Details that could permit the identification of any individual person, farm, or business may not be published  Data providers will have the right to review reports, papers, etc. prior to publication Breaching the terms of these agreements would jeopardise continued use of these data sets

Contributors to the EPIC data repository Matthew Vernon Julie Stirling Andrew Duncan Sibylle Mohr Ian Hutchinson Carla Gomes Thibaud Porphyre Sema Nickbakhsh Jim McLeod Iain McKendrick George Gunn Scottish Government Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) ScotEID Red Tractor farm assurance scheme Met Office Centre for Ecology and Hydrology James Hutton Institute EPIC personnelData providers

Thank you to Thibaud Porphyre and Paul Bessell for their contributions