Dark Conclusions John Peacock Dark Energy X 10 STScI, May
Outline Confessions of a dark skeptic What should we try to measure? How should we go about it? What do we really expect to find? And what would it mean?
History: the CDM argument for Why wasn’t this correct argument immediately accepted?
1996 Leiden School
1996: The CMBFAST revolution Flat m = 0.3 (vacuum dominated) Open m = 0.3 (no vacuum)
Dark Energy: observables Want to know if DE density is independent of time –is dw/da a sensible thing to focus on? –why not (a) in bins? Want to know if DE is homogeneous –is there a speed of sound in DE? Generalization to testing GR via growth important and healthy development Other methods (variable etc.) –More scope for improving limits?
Studying dark energy – why?
Dark Energy: the enemy of astronomy? A fair point if your experiment uses a lot of telescope time and only measures w But well known to workers in the field In fact, DE is good for astronomy: N 1/2 arguments lead to surveying the entire universe in a general way
10 8 All-sky galaxies: SuperCOSMOS UKST + POSS2
2MASS XSC: BRJHK photoz map
Foreground cosmology Predicted Compton signal in CMB (Francis et al. 2008)
Observing dark energy – how?
Figure of merit for Nobel Prize: minimal transverse size? Lensing SNe BAO Avoiding the JDEM hole
But even getting near the hole is hard
Measuring the vacuum Vacuum affects H(z): H 2 (z) = H 2 0 [ M (1+z) 3 + R (1+z) 4 + V (1+z) 3 (1+w) ] matter radiation vacuum Alters D(z) via r = s c dz/H And growth via 2H d /dt in growth equation Both effects are (1)Small (need D to 1% for w to § 0.05) (2)Degenerate with changes in m Lensing more like a rule of 10 Rule of 5 distance growth
The vacuum: present knowledge Combined: Future probes need to achieve <1% accuracy in D(z)
Issues Need to understand photo-z systematics at << 1% Need to calibrate photo-z’s: >10 5 spectroscopic z’s over different sky regions, with extremely high success rate and confidence.
Set 1: CDFS, UBVRIzJHK+IRAC
Set 2: CDFS, minus z, other templates
Comparison of 2 sets; objects with spec z
Comparison of 2 sets; all objects
What will we find? w =
Proving with help from Bayes Trotta: decide if you need a new parameter, p, based on Evidence ratio: E = LR X ( / p) where is your accuracy and p is the prior range So an accurate but inconclusive experiment can say ‘enough is enough’ Maybe (w)=0.01 is just enough
Cosmic puzzles if it isn’t Dark aether: w not -1 defines a preferred frame Dynamical DE still has to solve the classical problem
Two cosmic puzzles if it is The Scale Problem: Surely E max is > 100 GeV, not 2.4 meV? The why now problem time density matter vacuum now future is vacuum dominated Zeldovich 1967
The answer to ‘why now’ must be anthropic One-universe anthropic –Life (structure) only after matter-radiation equality –Not controversial –k-essence would do –But need to solve classical =0 problem Many-universe anthropic –Predates landscape, but requires new physics for variable –Can we ‘detect’ the ensemble? –Sound logic (exoplanets)
Weinberg’s prediction
Conclusions Huge progress in efficiency of surveying universe: QDOT: 10 scientists for 2163 z’s 2dFGRS: 33 scientists for 220k z’s Pan-STARRS: 160 scientists for 1 billion (photo)z’s ) 500 scientists for all universe in 2020 Which will either rule out or demonstrate w = -1 to 1%, and will test GR up to 100 Mpc Either way, need a solution to the classical problem, or will have to accept an ensemble picture