Welcoming Remarks “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” IGST Meeting Silver Spring, MD June 2, 2008 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director,

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Presentation transcript:

Welcoming Remarks “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” IGST Meeting Silver Spring, MD June 2, 2008 Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

NOAA Ocean Forecast Capabilities Real-Time Ocean Forecast System for North Atlantic basin (RTOFS), run at NCEP, based on HYCOM –1/12° resolution with rotated grid giving 4-5km resolution on US coast –Daily 5 day forecast –Being used to provide for initial/boundary conditions for regional/coastal models (NOS) SST, SSH and profile (Argo) data assimilated into RTOFS –SSH data from JASON-1 now –GFO and ENVISAT (late 2008) GFDL MOM3 used in coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) Ocean Prediction Center – provides forecasts, warnings –A portal for U.S. Navy and NOAA operational oceanography applications

Satellite (AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT) In situ (ARGO, Buoys, Ships) OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION RT-OFS-GODAE NOPP EMC CFS-GODAS NCO/ODA EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO) OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS Climate Forecast SystemReal-Time Ocean Forecast System Data Cutoff CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 2-10 day data cutoff Shared history, coding, and data processing MOM-3  MOM-4  GOLD HYCOM  GOLD NASA-NOAA-DOD JCSDA AMSR, GOES, AIRS, JASON(?), WindSat, MODIS Advanced ODA Techniques Observations CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST

Average Temperature at 200m (degC) 2Feb-1May

Future Plans Implement global 1/12° HYCOM model at NCEP late 2009 –Relies on close collaboration with Navy NRL (ESMF compliant) –Computing capacity for full operational support becoming available in 2011 –NCEP will continue to provide a portal for dissemination of Navy and NOAA “products” from this global system High-resolution global model to support OPC services and coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling at NCEP –Initialization and boundary data for coupled hurricane models. WRF-HYCOM coupled model in parallel testing in –Initialization for global coupled ocean-atmosphere models (near real time up to seasonal) –Work with GFDL on bridging the present modeling gap between near real time and climate ocean modeling. –Expand coastal forecast modeling capabilities (NOS, OAR and regional partners)