1 National Weather Service: Collaborating on Climate Services Jack Hayes Director, National Weather Service

Overview Goals/Objectives Major Activities: Climate Monitoring – Models – Field/delivery of services Issue: Where does CPC fit? Ongoing interactions with CS/CPO 2

Goals/Objective Support CS vision/mission Key challenges:  Climate/Weather linkage for short term predictions  Production of climate information to meet national, regional and local needs  User engagement User requirements and service delivery Preparedness vs Adaptation  Training/education of workforce 3

Major Activities Climate Monitoring  Climate Monitoring Summit (CPC led), including report, inventory and definition  Enhance Climate Portal Models  Upgrade of real-time CFS v2  Joining EUROSIP (ECMWF, UKMet, Meteo France) Field/Delivery of Climate Services  RCSDs facilitate user engagement in partnership with the NWS field structure  Team approach for decision support at national, regional and local levels  Training for WFO/RFC personnel 4

Issue: Where does CPC fit? Today 90% of CPC products are focused on the NWS preparedness and response mission Large number of CPC employees on record to join CS  “we believe there is a funding issue from within the NWS”  “we believe the NWS is deterministic and the CS is probabilistic” Working with CS/CPO and CPC employees to insure CPC contributes to CS 5

Ongoing Interactions with CS/CPO Discussing support for  R2O (Climate Test Bed)  Operations  Training  User engagement Establish a Service Level Agreement between CS and NWS 6

Backup 7

Climate Responsibilities of NWS and CS Societal Action DominatesPersonal Action Dominates Low Freq of Information Long Lifetime of Product High Freq of Information Short Lifetime of Product NWS Climate Responsibilities Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products and services to support response and preparedness, including related applied research and modeling to improve capabilities Understand and predict the influences of climate on weather events to deliver seamless prediction Mission: More short-term response and preparedness (i.e. non permanent actions to respond to and prepare for infrequent threats such as, floods, hurricanes, El Niño). Early warning; more accurate information; less uncertainty Shared Strategic Challenges Improved understanding and ability to simulate and predict the relationship between climate variation and extreme events NWS monitoring and assessment of variability will provide information to CS assessments of decadal climate change CS assessments of climate change forcing of variability will provide information to NWS predictions CS Provide assessment services and projections, and research to improve predictions and projections Mission: More long term adaptation and mitigation related (e.g. Are floods affecting a community more frequently? Are they more intense? What actions can be taken?) CS also addresses mitigation of climate change, a distinct difference between NCS and NWS

9 Definitions and Priorities PriorityActivityDefinition [examples] 1Sustained operations (O) Maintain current product quality [modeling and data assimilation systems (global ocean/land), operational climate forecast products, NWS Climate Services] 2Complete initiated improvements (T2O) Operationalize existing experimental capabilities and improvements [CFS V.2 (reanalysis and forecast), EUROSIP] 3Test and evaluate potential new improvements (T2O) Distinctive, demonstrated, new capability with potential for operations [Regional Climate Modeling, US MME, improved shallow convection, regional climate products] 4Initiate new capability (R) or support NCS Research on unique, new capability [build new ocean model]