Gridded WAFS Icing Verification System Matt Strahan WAFC Washintgon.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC CAT verification Objective verification of GRIB CAT forecasts Dr Philip G Gill, WAFC Science Meeting, Washington, 20.

Advertisements

© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC turbulence and Cb hazard verification Recent results and future plans Dr Philip G Gill WAFSOPSG 7/14, 30 th April 2013.

Slide 1ECMWF forecast products users meeting – Reading, June 2005 Verification of weather parameters Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.

History of IATA requirements for gridded ICE, TURB and CB Cloud Products.

© Crown copyright Met Office Verification of forecasts of Cbs Bob Lunnon, Aviation Outcomes Manager, Met Office WAFS Science meeting, Washington, April.

1 00/XXXX © Crown copyright Use of radar data in modelling at the Met Office (UK) Bruce Macpherson Mesoscale Assimilation, NWP Met Office EWGLAM / COST-717.

Institute of Meteorology and Climatology University of HannoverEGS Nice, April 2003 Christoph Leifeld ADWICE Advanced Diagnosis and Warning system for.

Paul Fajman NOAA/NWS/MDL September 7,  NDFD ugly string  NDFD Forecasts and encoding  Observations  Assumptions  Output, Scores and Display.

Rapid Update Cycle Model William Sachman and Steven Earle ESC452 - Spring 2006.

Forecasting convective initiation over Alpine terrain by means of automatic nowcasting and a high-resolution NWP model Georg Pistotnik, Thomas Haiden,

Univ of AZ WRF Model Verification. Method NCEP Stage IV data used for precipitation verification – Stage IV is composite of rain fall observations and.

Roll or Arcus Cloud Squall Lines.

Robert LaPlante NOAA/NWS Cleveland, OH David Schwab Jia Wang NOAA/GLERL Ann Arbor, MI 22 March 2011.

Verification of WAFS Global Icing Products Jennifer Mahoney 1 and Sean Madine 1,2 1 NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory 2 Cooperative Institute for Research.

Hongli Jiang, Yuanfu Xie, Steve Albers, Zoltan Toth

Aviation Decision Support InFlight and Ground Icing: what do I need to know? Marcia Politovich, NCAR Flight Planning: –Where is it? Along my planned route.

Verification has been undertaken for the 3 month Summer period (30/05/12 – 06/09/12) using forecasts and observations at all 205 UK civil and defence aerodromes.

NCAR Activities Using TAMDAR Icing Data

1 GOES-R AWG Hydrology Algorithm Team: Rainfall Probability June 14, 2011 Presented By: Bob Kuligowski NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

February 6, 2012 Verification Western California Dan Tomaso, Tyler Roys, & Brian Clavier.

Verification Summit AMB verification: rapid feedback to guide model development decisions Patrick Hofmann, Bill Moninger, Steve Weygandt, Curtis Alexander,

Real-Time Estimation of Volcanic Ash/SO2 Cloud Height from Combined UV/IR Satellite Observations and Numerical Modeling Gilberto A. Vicente NOAA National.

1 GOES-R AWG Hydrology Algorithm Team: Rainfall Potential June 14, 2011 Presented By: Bob Kuligowski NOAA/NESDIS/STAR.

The NWS/NCAR “Forecaster Over the Loop” Fort Worth Operational Demonstration Human Enhancement of a Thunderstorm Nowcasting System Eric Nelson, Rita Roberts,

VERIFICATION OF NDFD GRIDDED FORECASTS IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES John Horel 1, David Myrick 1, Bradley Colman 2, Mark Jackson 3 1 NOAA Cooperative Institute.

LAPS __________________________________________ Analysis and nowcasting system for Finland/Scandinavia Finnish Meteorological Institute Erik Gregow.

Update on NCAR Auto-Nowcaster Juneau, AK. The Auto-Nowcaster System An expert system which produces short-term (0-1 hr) forecasts of thunderstorm initiation,

NCAR Auto-Nowcaster Convective Weather Group NCAR/RAL.

Julie Haggerty National Center for Atmospheric Research Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather October July 2014.

AMB Verification and Quality Control monitoring Efforts involving RAOB, Profiler, Mesonets, Aircraft Bill Moninger, Xue Wei, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison.

Requirements from KENDA on the verification NetCDF feedback files: -produced by analysis system (LETKF) and ‘stat’ utility ((to.

© Crown copyright Met Office Probabilistic turbulence forecasts from ensemble models and verification Philip Gill and Piers Buchanan NCAR Aviation Turbulence.

P1.85 DEVELOPMENT OF SIMULATED GOES PRODUCTS FOR GFS AND NAM Hui-Ya Chuang and Brad Ferrier Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP, Washington DC Introduction.

The Benefit of Improved GOES Products in the NWS Forecast Offices Greg Mandt National Weather Service Director of the Office of Climate, Water, and Weather.

Hurricane Microphysics: Ice vs Water A presenation of papers by Willoughby et al. (1984) and Heymsfield et al. (2005) Derek Ortt April 17, 2007.

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011.

HEMS Weather Summit – 21 March The Outlook for National-Scale Ceiling and Visibility Products Paul Herzegh Lead, FAA/AWRP National C&V Team.

2006(-07)TAMDAR aircraft impact experiments for RUC humidity, temperature and wind forecasts Stan Benjamin, Bill Moninger, Tracy Lorraine Smith, Brian.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Air Force Weather Agency Probabilistic Lightning Forecasts Using Deterministic Data Evan Kuchera.

The Rapid Developing Thunderstorm (RDT) product CDOP to CDOP2

Mesoscale Simulation of a Convective Frontal Passage Travis Swaggerty, Dorothea Ivanova and Melanie Wetzel Department of Applied Aviation Sciences Embry-Riddle.

© Crown copyright Met Office WAFC CAT verification Objective verification of GRIB CAT forecasts Dr Philip G Gill, WAFS Workshop on the use and visualisation.

5.32 Estimating regions of tropopause folding and clear-air turbulence with the GOES water vapor channel Tony Wimmers, Wayne Feltz Cooperative Institute.

GOES-R Aviation Weather Applications Frederick R. Mosher NWS/NCEP Aviation Weather Center.

ASAP In-Flight Icing Research at NCAR J. Haggerty, F. McDonough, J. Black, S. Landolt, C. Wolff, and S. Mueller In collaboration with: P. Minnis and W.

MeteoExpert workstation.Visualization of new gridded forecasts MeteoExpert workstation. Visualization of new gridded forecasts.

1 Validation for CRR (PGE05) NWC SAF PAR Workshop October 2005 Madrid, Spain A. Rodríguez.

Assimilation of Lightning Data Using a Newtonian Nudging Method Involving Low-Level Warming Max R. Marchand Henry E. Fuelberg Florida State University.

Verification of ensemble precipitation forecasts using the TIGGE dataset Laurence J. Wilson Environment Canada Anna Ghelli ECMWF GIFS-TIGGE Meeting, Feb.

 Federal Aviation Administration’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on certification of aircraft for operation in supercooled large drop (SLD) icing conditions.

Satellites and NWS Aviation Activities Mark Andrews NWS Headquarters OCWWS/Meteorological Services Div. Aviation Weather Services Branch Frederick R. Mosher.

In-Flight Icing Products for Helicopters Ben C. Bernstein National Center for Atmospheric Research In-flight Icing Product Development Team FAA – Aviation.

2004 Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC Stan Benjamin Steve Weygandt NOAA / Forecast Systems Lab NY Courtesy:

Global vs mesoscale ATOVS assimilation at the Met Office Global Large obs error (4 K) NESDIS 1B radiances NOAA-15 & 16 HIRS and AMSU thinned to 154 km.

1 Recent AMDAR (MDCRS/ACARS) Activities at GSD New AMDAR-RUC database that helps evaluate AMDAR data quality Optimization study that suggests data can.

SIGMA: Diagnosis and Nowcasting of In-flight Icing – Improving Aircrew Awareness Through FLYSAFE Christine Le Bot Agathe Drouin Christian Pagé.

RUC Convective Probability Forecasts using Ensembles and Hourly Assimilation Steve Weygandt Stan Benjamin Forecast Systems Laboratory NOAA.

11 Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang, Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding.

UERRA User Workshop Toulouse, 4 th Feb 2016 Questions to the users.

Investigations of Using TAMDAR Soundings in the NCAR Auto-Nowcaster H. Cai, C. Mueller, E. Nelson, and N. Rehak NCAR/RAL.

New developments in the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) product

Better Forecasting Bureau

Tony Wimmers, Wayne Feltz

Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC

Naval Research Laboratory

Turbulence-Related Products Robert Sharman NCAR/RAP

Quantitative verification of cloud fraction forecasts

New Developments in Aviation Forecast Guidance from the RUC

Can we distinguish wet years from dry years?

Presentation transcript:

Gridded WAFS Icing Verification System Matt Strahan WAFC Washintgon

What to Verify? WAFS grids are to be used during flight planning. WAFS icing grids are to be used to plan fuel loads needed to avoid potential icing if aircraft were to be forced to descend to icing levels. It follows that the requirement is to verify skill at detecting areas of potential icing. Limited direct observations of icing are available. Current Icing Product (CIP) product developed to observe areas of potential icing.

Explanation of Current Icing Product (CIP) Areas of potential identified via a combination of satellite and initial analysis of temperature, vertical velocity and relative humidity to identify potential areas of icing. This answers the questions: 1.Is there a cloud? 2.Is there potential for supercooled water? 3.Is there large scale vertical motion?

Further Refinement of Potential PIREPS – increase/decrease potential Radar – large droplet detection METAR – rule out areas with frozen precip, increase potential in areas of freezing precip. Lightning – increase potential in Cbs

Example of 20km CIP with all necessary inputs. It resolves severity and probability. Valid 29 April, 2013, 18 UTC. Highest value in column from 1000ft to FL300. Vertical resolution is 1000m. Does not match next slide, which is only for 600mb (FL140). Calibrated against automated TAMDAR observations.

24HR WAFS 600mb Max Icing Fcst Valid 29 Apr, 2013, 18 UTC General areas of icing in agreement with CIP on previous slide. Note: Visual comparison is difficult. Previous slide in 20km resolution and shows vertical max. WAFS Grids in 139km resolution. Also, WAFS Grid is just potential, whereas previous slide is in severity.

Using CIP as Observational Analysis Field Facilitates Grid to Grid Verification A hit is when the analysis potential is equal or higher than the forecast potential. A false alarm is when the analysis potential is less than the forecast potential. Using a sequential series of potentials, a ROC curve can be generated that plots Hit Rate against False Alarm Rate.

ROC Curve for Nov 2012 thru April 2013.

WAFS Icing Verification Demonstration Web Site URL is subject to change after final development is finished. Currently only covers the Continental U.S. (CONUS). Global coverage is expected soon. DB_verif_demo/aviation.cgi DB_verif_demo/aviation.cgi

Expansion to Global Coverage Studies show that Satellite and Initial Analysis are most important inputs. These are all that are used for WAFS verification. Global satellite data in correct IR bandwidth to be available for use soon. Plan to allow user to select from pre-defined regions. ICAO Regions?