Quarterly and monthly establishment surveys International Workshop on Industrial Statistics Beijing, China, 8-10 July 2013

Considerations for Annual and Quarterly Surveys Annual surveys based on larger sample to cover more activity groups for national accounts Annual surveys based on larger sample to cover more activity groups for national accounts Quarterly surveys can be based on subsample of annual survey or cut- off sample to measure quarterly trends in production and revenue over time, such as index of industrial production Quarterly surveys can be based on subsample of annual survey or cut- off sample to measure quarterly trends in production and revenue over time, such as index of industrial production

Defining objectives of quarterly and monthly surveys Sample design depends on specific objectives of survey Sample design depends on specific objectives of survey If quarterly national accounts are produced, specify groups of activities to be covered If quarterly national accounts are produced, specify groups of activities to be covered Level of precision Level of precision Cut-off sampling used for measuring short-term trends, especially for monthly surveys Cut-off sampling used for measuring short-term trends, especially for monthly surveys

Quarterly establishment surveys Largest establishments included in sample with certainty for each survey, ensuring overlap for this stratum Largest establishments included in sample with certainty for each survey, ensuring overlap for this stratum If sample of smaller establishments included in quarterly survey, there can be overlapping sample used each quarter, with partial rotation over time If sample of smaller establishments included in quarterly survey, there can be overlapping sample used each quarter, with partial rotation over time

Quarterly and monthly surveys Some countries use quarterly establishment surveys as source for quarterly national accounts Some countries use quarterly establishment surveys as source for quarterly national accounts Manufacturing sector treated as one domain for quarterly national accounts, but index of industrial production covers various subsectors, requiring a larger sample Manufacturing sector treated as one domain for quarterly national accounts, but index of industrial production covers various subsectors, requiring a larger sample Monthly surveys based on small subsample of quarterly survey or cut-off sample for measuring indices of short- term trends Monthly surveys based on small subsample of quarterly survey or cut-off sample for measuring indices of short- term trends

Cut-off sampling technique for monthly production survey 70/70/70 rule 70/70/70 rule Select largest activities within each sub- sector(at 4-digit ISIC level) accounting for at least 70% of value added Select largest activities within each sub- sector(at 4-digit ISIC level) accounting for at least 70% of value added Within each activity, select largest enterprises that account for at least 70% of value added Within each activity, select largest enterprises that account for at least 70% of value added Select product lines that account for 70% of production Select product lines that account for 70% of production

70/70/70 rule (continued) In first two steps, size measured by value added In first two steps, size measured by value added In third step, output values used to measure size In third step, output values used to measure size At each step, sort units by value in descending order, cumulate sizes to determine 70% cut-off At each step, sort units by value in descending order, cumulate sizes to determine 70% cut-off

Example of index for measuring trends Index of Industrial Production Index of Industrial Production Y = output I p = price index I q = volume index t = current period t-1 = previous period

Establish procedures for replacing sample firms and products over time Problem – some sample firms may close, or product lines may be discontinued Problem – some sample firms may close, or product lines may be discontinued Important to establish procedures for periodically updating sample of firms and products for industrial production index Important to establish procedures for periodically updating sample of firms and products for industrial production index