Framework for setting goals and actions to reach goals Seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in Africa Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11 to 15 April 2011 Herman Smith UNSD/DESA

 Introduction  Strategic planning framework  Vision document Outline of presentation

 Development of an economic statistics programme for compiling the required scope and detail of the National Accounts to inform policy makers ◦ National policy development plans, NSDS, etc ◦ Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building (RRSF, ASCC, AStCom, AchartStats, SHaSA ) Statement of strategy

 Mandate, ◦ Underpinned by  Legal mandate (Statistical act)  International standards  Mission  Values  High-level goals  Specific goals  Required activities Typical strategic planning framework

 Mandate, underpinned by ◦ Legal mandate (Statistical act) ◦ International standards  UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics  2008 SNA  BPM6  GFSM  ISIC rev4  Mission ◦ Compile national accounts according to milestone two of the SNA implementation, comprising the minimum required data set Strategic planning frame work

 Values ◦ Statistical professionalism ◦ Independence and integrity ◦ Excellent service to our customers ◦ Respect and understanding for our data suppliers ◦ Value for money  High level goals – Strategic lines  Specific goals – Strategic objectives/actions  Required activities Strategic planning frame work

1: Equipping African countries with an SNA that is appropriate to their socio-economic realities Develop a description of the sources and methods based on the 2008 SNA that are relevant for the country 2: Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of national accounts Develop sources and methods that are relevant for the ICP programme High level goals – Strategic lines

3: Preparing an optimal and efficient operational system of production and diffusion of national accounts Timeliness, Periodicity, Revision cycle Scope Detail 4: Building capacity and sustainability of national accounts production and analysis National accounts production and training capacity building High level goals – Strategic lines

5: Increasing the availability and improving the quality of the basic data required for the compilation of national accounts, based on the National Strategy for the development of statistics (NSDS) Development of source data – Business registers and frames Surveys Administrative data International statistical standards (BPM6, ISICr4, GFS etc.) 6: Increasing human, material and financial resources Institutional capacity building High level goals – Strategic lines

7: Undertake advocacy at all decision making levels Communicate the use of national accounts in policy making Monitoring and Reporting  Communication and dissemination of the national accounts to users High level goals – Strategic lines

 Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts compilation - Where are we now ◦ Using the Diagnostic tool  Develop a vision for improving the availability and quality of the economic statistics required for the compilation of national accounts Developing specific goals

 Discuss vision preferably in a national seminar with all stakeholders, such as: ◦ policy planners; ◦ users including the academia; and ◦ business community. Vision document cont

 Such a discussion is expected to help the NSO to: ◦ prioritize actions to mitigate the problem areas ◦ write a plan for the improvement of the supporting statistics for the compilation of the national accounts ◦ develops an information structure for planning, monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the SNA; and ◦ builds on the joint efforts of the ISWGNA and AGNA to establish an information structure for managing technical assistance operations Vision document cont

 Scope and detail of the national accounts  Frequency of aggregates – nominal and volumes  2008 SNA compliance  ISIC ref 4 compliance  Requirements from the African strategy  Required data sources – Needs  Current data sources and compilation methods – What you have Setting of goals - Where we want to be

 Inventory of sources of information and questionnaires (collection tools) required by the 2008 – Diagnostic tool  Integration of the GDP breakdown (for ICP) into the 2008 SNA national accounts routine work – ICP  3.1: Preparing national accounts in accordance with an timeline that respects the national, sub regional and international requirements – MRDS (timeliness and periodicity)  Establishing tables to be elaborated and published by group of countries – MRDS (scope and detail) Objectives and actions of the African strategy that are of particular importance at the national level

 Utilization of modern and country adapted IT tools  Evaluation of data sources required for the elaboration of the 2008 System of national accounts – Diagnostic tool  Development of statistical surveys required for improvement of national accounts – determined by Diagnostic tool  Making an inventory of administrative data sources required for national accounts compilation – Diagnostic tool  5.3: Implementing international statistical systems (balance of payments, budget statistics, financial statistics, etc) for the improvement of national accounts – BPM6, GFSM IRIS, IRDTS  5.4: Adapting international classifications to African socio- economic realities – ISIC rev 4 Links to the African strategy cont

Setting of goals - Where we want to be Vision document Data item Frequency2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods MQA NVNVNV Nominal Volu mes Nomi nal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators Blue – Goals Green – needs Red – current status

Setting of goals - Where we want to be Vision document Data item Frequency2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods MQA NVNVNV Nominal Volu mes Nomi nal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators

Data item 2008 SNARequired sources NominalVolumes Final consumption expenditure Household final consumption expenditure FISIM allocated to users, Imputed rents Goods that are produced by households for own final consumption Household income and expenditure surveys, retail trade sales by type of expenditure items Housing stock Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items

Data item 2008 SNARequired sources NominalVolumes General government final consumption expenditure Government final consumption expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption GFS data by level of government Consumption of fixed capital of government fixed assets Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items Individual consumption expenditure Collective consumption expenditure The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF FISIM allocated to users

Gross fixed capital format ion The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF Consumption of fixed capital measured on all government fixed assets (airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of construction structures) including military weapon systems The expenditure on Research and Development included in GCF Purchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year included in GCF Expenditure on software development on own account expected to be used for more than a year and for sale included in GCF The expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year, whether purchased on the market or developed in- house, included in the GCF Expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF Information by type of asset from: Household income and expenditure surveys capturing own construction expenditure Economic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics) GFS data by level of government Price indices or volume series by type of asset

Setting of goals - Where we want to be Vision document Data item Frequency2008 SNA Required sources Principal data sources and compilation methods MQA NVNVNV Nominal Volu mes Nomi nal Volumes National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDS Set of short term indicators

SectorSubsectorAnnual estimatesQuarterly estimates Constant- price estimates Final consumption expenditure by households By purpose and Durable, semi-durable and non- durable goods: and services Food beverages and tobacco: All component s Benchmark year: Estimated by the five- yearly survey of income and expenditure of households, survey of retail sales, verified by the supply and use framework. Estimates include farm produce consumed by farmers for own account. Other years: Estimated according to monthly surveys of retail trade sales by Stats SA. Information obtained from the National Department of Agriculture, retail trade sales by Stats SA and relevant sources. Nominal expenditure is divided by relevant components of the CPI.

SectorSubse ctor Annual estimatesQuarterly estimates Constant-price estimates Manufactu ring Benchmark year: Periodic large sample surveys and AFSs of manufacturing conducted by Stats SA. Other years: AFSs and monthly data on production and sales, and quarterly surveys of financial and labour statistics conducted by Stats SA, supplemented by sample surveys conducted by the SARB. Same as for annual estimates for other years. Base-year estimates are extrapolated using appropriate indices of output quantities based on manufacturing sales at constant prices for the various subsectors of manufacturing.

Required activities  Coordination of NSS  2008 SNA compliance  ISIC rev 4 compliance  Monthly Price statistics  Monthly and quarterly production and turnover surveys  Business registers  Economic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics)  Household income and expenditure surveys  Informal sector surveys  etc.

 Diagnostic tool reveals data gaps  Vision document specify the goals and needs  Action plan indicates the required actions with a time table to mitigate data gaps  This action plan represents an implementation programme for strengthening the economic statistics for the compilation of the required scope and detail of the national accounts Action plan – How to get there

Development of economic statistics for national accounts Vision Setting of goals Where we want to be Assessment Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts compilation Where are we now Action Plan Actions to reach goals How to get there Implementation How to stay there COUNTRY OWNERSHIP Political Commitment Statistical capacity National policy development plans, NSDS, etc. Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building RRSF, ASCC, AStCom, AchartStats, SHaSA Support from the regional and global SNA implementation programme National statement of strategy Decide on the scope and detail of national accounts compilation

Thank You