G4: Dr. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. Raqubul Hasib, IWM, Bangladesh.

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Presentation transcript:

G4: Dr. Saiful Islam, IWFM, BUET, Bangladesh Md. Raqubul Hasib, IWM, Bangladesh

Shatkhira Khulna Patuakhali Polder Polder-3 Polder 30 Polder 43/2F

 Climate projections are performing on the basis of three extreme emission scenarios  A2 scenarios - High  A1B scenarios – Moderate  B2 scenarios – Low (on going)  Two GCMs are-  HadCM3, CGCM3

Applicable to: Sub-grid scales (small islands, point processes) Complex/ heterogeneous environments Extreme events

 Predictands (to predict)  1. Maximum air temperature. 2. Minimum air temperature. 3. Precipitation  Predictors (26 variables such as-MSL, RH, WIND, HEGIHT, TEMPERATURE  at different atmospheric levels Tools used for statistical downscaling

Following procedure are performed during downscaling:  Check Quality of the data ◦ Screening of predictor variable ◦ Screening of predictor variable.  Calibration and validation of GCM with station data  Synthesis of observed data using weather generator  Generation of Climate change scenario using calibration parameters

PredictorsPartial r Specific Humidity RH0.496 RH at 850 hpa0.212 RH at 500 hpa0.200 Mean E%27.70 Mean SE1.849

PredictorsPartial r Wind Direction at 500hpa RH at 500hpa0.153 Mean E% Mean SE20.035

Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios Maximum Increase in monsoon period Maximum Increase in pre monsoon period

Temperature Change :  Temperature will increase gradually in the future period.  Rate of Temperature change is greater for A2 than A1B.

Precipitation change:  For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in overall period of the year. Consecutive dry day will increase in monsoon and pre monsoon period, that denotes that rainfall intensity or rainfall duration may increase for that period.  For A1B scenario mean precipitation will increase in monsoon and pre-monsoon period.

Maximum Increase of in monsoon period Maximum Increase in Pre monsoon period Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios

Precipitation Projections considering HadCM3 A2 Scenarios

Precipitation Projections considering A1B Scenarios

Precipitation Change :  For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in pre-monsoon, post monsoon and monsoon period.  For the case of A1B scenario it is observed that mean precipitation will increase in pre-monsoon, post monsoon and monsoon period. Precipitation of the year will be delayed about one month during monsoon

Maximum Temperature Projections considering A2 and A1B Scenarios

Precipitation Projections considering HadCM3 A2 Scenarios

Precipitation Projections considering CGCM3 A1B Scenarios

Precipitation change:  For A2 scenario mean precipitation will increase in monsoon period consecutive wet day will decrease that denotes rainfall intensity will increase. Decrease of precipitation in post monsoon season.  In A1B scenario mean precipitation will decrease in pre monsoon and monsoon period.

 Conduct Climate Extreme analysis using Indices.  Complete Analysis of B2 scenarios  Generate Climate Projections for the Ganges Basin.