Brian Guyer Forecaster WFO Albuquerque Terra Satellite.

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Presentation transcript:

Brian Guyer Forecaster WFO Albuquerque Terra Satellite

KFMN KGUP KABQ KSAF KLVS KTCC KROW 5502’ 6472’ 6234’ 5355’ 6877’ 4065’ 3666’

KFMN 5502’

KLVS 6877’

KGUP 6472’

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 308 PM MST MON JAN DISCUSSION…THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND BLENDED PWAT PRODUCTS SHOW A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE SOCA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER THAN 200 PCT OF NORMAL MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 312 PM MST TUE JAN DISCUSSION…SAT/COMP RADAR/ SFC OBS SHOW PRECIP IN ASSCN WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CRASHING INTO SOCA SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AZ. MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES TODAY WILL ALLOW RA/SN TO DEVELOP OVER NM AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES CLOSER TO THE STATE. A LARGE AREA OF GREATER THAN 200 PCT OF NORMAL PWAT VALUES OVER NORTHERN NM WILL TRANSLATE INTO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TPW % of Normal

NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/18/10 NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/24/10 MODIS 1km False Color 01/24/10

NOHRSC SWE 01/30/10 NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH 01/30/10 MODIS 1km False Color 01/30/10

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD AVIATION CONCERNS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. THE LATEST 0715Z NASA SPORT FOG DEPTH AND 09Z LOW CLOUD BASE PRODUCTS INDICATE MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NM UNDER IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND KSAF. LOCALES SUCH AS KFMN AND KGUP CURRENTLY UNDER MVFR CIGS AROUND 025 MAY HOLD AT THOSE VALUES AS PRODUCT LOOPING DOES NOT SHOW A TREND TOWARD LOWER CIGS IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

01/30/ Z OVC036 OVC023 OVC001 VV001 OVC037 01/07/ Z Radiative RegimeUpslope/Advective Regime

923 PM MST SAT JAN …Freezing Fog Advisory in Effect Until 11 AM MST Sunday… 459 AM MST SUN JAN …Freezing Fog Advisory is Cancelled…

TAF KGUP Z 3100/ KT P6SM FEW030 BKN200 FM VRB05KT P6SM FEW010 BKN025 FM KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 SCT200= TAF KGUP Z 3106/0106 VRB05KT P6SM SCT040 BKN200 TEMPO 3110/3114 BKN025 FM KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 SCT200 FM VRB03KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN060= TAF KGUP Z 3112/0112 VRB05KT P6SM BKN028 FM VRB05KT P6SM SCT035= TAF KGUP Z 3118/0118 VRB06KT P6SM BKN035 BKN120 FM VRB05KT P6SM SCT035 BKN120 FM VRB05KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN080 OVC120= KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR M06/M07 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM SCT026 M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN028 M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM BKN030 M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT030 M07/M08 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM BKN028 M07/M09 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM SCT028 M07/M09 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM FEW028 M08/M09 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC037 M07/M09 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 8SM OVC033 M06/M07 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM OVC033 M05/M07 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC033 M03/M04 KGUP Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC037 M02/M04

MODIS 1km False Color 01/18/ Z MODIS 1km LST 01/18/ Z Max Temperature Obs Grid 01/18/10 Max Temperature Forecast 01/19/10

= LMA

Northwest Plateau San Francisco Valley Tularosa/Lower Rio Grande Upper Rio Grande

 Decision support aid  PWAT departures raise confidence on level of impacts expected  Anticipation of low clouds/ fog at TAF sites  Snow cover and temperature profiles  Anticipating LMA to complement radar coverage