SponsorProblem AssessRisk SolutionStrategy Measures of Merit (MoM) Human & OrganisationalIssues Scenarios Methods & Tools Data Products ProblemFormulation Prepare for Success NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP) for C2 Assessment Risk and Uncertainty Chapter 10 David S. Alberts Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NI2)

C O B P 2 Risk and Uncertainty Sponsor Problem Assess Risk Problem Formulation Solution Strategy Measures of Merit ( MoM ) ) Human & Organizational Issues Scenarios Models Methods & Tools Data Products Prepare for Success

C O B P 3 Agenda Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty Types of Risks and Uncertainties Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

C O B P 4 Definitions Risk –Possibility of suffering a loss -Actual -Opportunity Uncertainty –Inability to determine -Value of a variable -A future state -Probability –Unknowns All risks involve uncertainties

C O B P 5 Types of Risks and Uncertainties Assessment –Related to the conduct of the assessment Decision or Operational – Related to taking decision(s) or action(s) that the assessment is meant to inform Not all risks and/or uncertainties can be eliminated

C O B P 6 Examples of Uncertainties in C2 Assessments The “right” question Assumptions Appropriate set of scenarios Sources of data Correctness of data Limits of models and simulations Appropriate solution approaches Stakeholder perceptions and predispositions Schedule and cost And lots more………………..

C O B P 7 C2 and Decisionmaking Decisionmaking is at the heart of C2 –Individual, team, organizational, adversarial, etc. We lack an adequate understanding of decisionmaking and related processes –Perceptions –Styles –Cultural influences –Relationships to information quality and misinformation These factors are inadequately represented in M&S tools Ignoring these only increases risks and/or uncertainties

C O B P 8 Assessment Risks and Uncertainties Assessments should be judged by their ability to inform: that is by reduction in risk and uncertainty –Identifying key considerations –Fact finding –Analysis Hence, the major assessment risk is failing to do so: a failure to inform –Failure to deliver the assessment in a timely manner –Missing key considerations –Inadequate fact finding –Poor or incomplete analysis –Failure to properly communicate findings and conclusions

C O B P 9 Decision/Action Risks and Uncertainties Decision/Actions are attended by risks associated with –Fog and friction of war (and operations other than war) –Adversary actions or reactions –Environment (including other parties) –Unintended consequences Hence, major decision/action risk include –Misunderstanding of situation (including command intent) –Failure to consider full range of options –Failure to understand the full range of (cascading) effects associated with various options –Failure to make a decision / take an action at the appropriate time

C O B P 10 Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties Reducing Uncertainties –Identify and treat uncertainties explicitly –Focus on the most consequential of the uncertainties –Seek to be informed from multiple sources –Perform sensitivity analyses Mitigating Risks –Identify and treat risks explicitly –Scrub assumptions –Following the COBP will help reduce risks Risk analyses Risk register –Develop contingencies –Develop agility –Contingency planning Communicating risks and uncertainties is essential