Polar Weather Prediction Research Gilbert Brunet WWRP/JSC Chair CAS MG meeting, November 2011 Madrid, Spain

High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System at Environment Canada GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) model, limited area model (LAM) configuration; 1 LAM grid,  x = 2.5 km; hour predictions, 2-4 runs per day; Full data assimilation system of atmospheric measurements; Land data assimilation system (250 m) for detailed initial conditions of surface fields; Associated ensemble prediction system to provide forecast uncertainties.  By 2015, Environment Canada will have complete coverage over Canada by an unprecedented convection permitting and non- hydrostatic high-resolution numerical weather prediction system

The Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) Coupled Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean Forecasting System -5°C -15°C -25°C A dynamic representation of sea surface conditions improves the meteorological forecast locally; Time-evolving ice cover in coupled model allows vast stretches of ice-free water to open up, buffering atmospheric temperatures; Use of coupled model results in significantly improved forecasts all around the GSL; Demonstrates importance of air- sea-ice coupling even for short- range weather forecasts; Next step: implementation in the Canadian Arctic (METAREA).

Low Visibility and Precipitation in the Arctic Goals: Using NWP models, surface observations, and satellites to better detect and predict low visibility conditions associated with ice fog, freezing fog, and precipitation Impacts: Aviation, weather, marine and land transport, and climate. Ice fog in Yellowknife, NWT, FRAM project Icing, turbulence, radiation sensors POSS prec. sensorFrost on particle sensor due to ice fog, Barrow AL Ice crystals during a light snow in Yellowknife (taken by Canon camera) Ice fog from PMWR at -35C in Yellowknife Ice fog from MODIS satellite in Yellowknife GCIP ice particle spectra GCIP ice sensor YK FRAM instrument set for fog, precip, radiation, turbulence, vis etc. MRR radar FD12P Vis

World Meteorological Congress WWRP World Meteorological Organization 2011 Congress Polar Prediction project – “Congress acknowledged the success of the ten projects of the International Polar Year THORPEX cluster, and supported the CAS recommendation that, as a legacy of the IPY, a THORPEX Polar Research project be established to improve the understanding of the impact of high impact weather over Polar Regions. Congress also emphasized the need to have an adequate observational and telecommunication network for the Polar Regions in order to provide the relevant high impact weather services for the region. “ “Congress strongly urged all those concerned to ensure that such a Polar Prediction Research project is established in support of, inter alia, the Global Framework for Climate Services. Furthermore, the EC-PORS, at its Second Session in Hobart in October 2010, agreed to the concept of a major decadal initiative to develop a Polar Prediction System (Global Integrated Polar Prediction System - GIPPS). Congress recognized the importance of effective coordination between these various initiatives, and invited Members to contribute as appropriate. “ Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction – “Congress noted that the JSCs of the WWRP and the JSC for WCRP and WWRP/THORPEX ICSC set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out and international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. This initiative should be closely coordinated with the CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting and with the future developments of climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services. “ “Congress was pleased to note that the WWRP-THORPEX / WCRP workshop on “Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction” (Exeter, December 2010) had recommended the establishment of a Panel/Project for Sub-seasonal Prediction Research and Applications - Panel members being drawn from WWRP- THORPEX, WCRP, CBS, CCl, JCOMM, CHy, CAS and CAgM and their relevant programme bodies. “

Polar Prediction Project The Report from the Workshop on “Improvement of Weather and Environmental Prediction in Polar Regions” (Met No Oslo, 6 to 8 October 2010) has been published to the web Meeting_Outcomes_FINAL.pdfhttp:// Meeting_Outcomes_FINAL.pdf; The outcome of this workshop was the establishment of a basis for an IPY legacy project which is intended to provide a framework for cooperative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate, and environment; Three forecast prediction ranges are of interest: – short-term regional forecasts (one hour to 48 hours); – medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks); – sub-seasonal to one season forecasts.  12

Polar Prediction Contd., It was clear from the workshop discussions on “gaps” that many of the problems are common to all prediction systems (including climate) whatever the range – notably, problems with the parameterization of atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface physical processes; Such a legacy project would aid the coordination of current and future polar prediction activities and increase awareness of the need for new resources for polar prediction research; It should be based on a few NWP internationally coordinated polar initiatives (new or existing); Based on the outcome of the Oslo workshop and the feedback from EC- PORS and potential partners, a Polar Prediction Project, similar to the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project, supported by WWRP and THORPEX and well coordinated with the Polar Project in WCRP, should be established.  13

Polar Prediction Contd., This project will require a Steering Group (consisting of members with scientific and operational expertise and representatives of the user community). The first task for the Steering Group (supported by a WMO consultant) will be the preparation of an Implementation Plan, which includes estimates of resources and a strategy for the coordination of polar prediction research; Thomas Jung is a Chair of the Steering Group and should be approved in this meeting; If the plan is well received by the community, and if the YOTC model is followed, a Project Office should be established at an institution with a major interest in polar prediction; WWRP POLAR PREDICTION PROJECT, STEERING GROUP KICKOFF MEETING, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND, 30 NOVEMBER – 1 DECEMBER  14

Polar Prediction Initiative Steering Committee Membership 1.Thomas Jung (Chair, AWI, Germany) 2.Peter Bauer (ECMWF) 3.David Bromwich (Byrd Polar Research Centre, USA) 4.Trond Iversen (Norwegian Met Service, Norway) 5.Greg Smith (Environment Canada, Canada) 6.Pertti Nurmi (Finish Meteorological Institute, Finland) 7.Ian Renfew (University of East Anglia, UK) 8.Chris Fairall (NOAA/ESRL, USA) 9.SERA Expert (TBD) 10.Mikhail Tolstykh (HRC, Russia) 11. Data Assimilation Expert (TBD) Secretary Neil Gordon (Secretary, National Weather Service, New Zealand)

Thank you! Merci!