State of Tsunami Science and Early Warnings Dr. François Schindelé, CEA-DASE Chairman of the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System.

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Presentation transcript:

State of Tsunami Science and Early Warnings Dr. François Schindelé, CEA-DASE Chairman of the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific ICG/ITSU

State of Tsunami Science

TSUNAMIS M 8.7

TSUNAMIS 1946 Tsunami Destruction in Hilo, Hawaii

TSUNAMIS April 1, 1946 Tsunami at Hilo, Hawaii

Arica, Chile PERU TSUNAMI 23 JUN UTC 16.2S 73.4W Mw=8.4 SERIES (4-5 large) of OCEAN WAVES MOST generated by EARTHQUAKES 4 to 60 MINUTES between WAVE CRESTS AMPLITUDE : A few cm to 20 m SPEED depends on WATER DEPTH : arround 800 km/h in deep ocean, 40 km/h close to the coast What is a Tsunami ?

COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 1. ASSESSMENT Historical Studies Historical Data Base Field Surveys Inundation Maps Numerical Simul Hazard Assessment

Run-up Map - Aleutians 1946 Tsunami Observation Directivity

Tsunami Generation

Tsunami generated by Earthquake 1 Generation ParametersInitiation Length Width Dislocation Strike Slope North Dip Numerical Modeling

2 Propagation x h= h(x,y)  =  (x,y) Sea bottom z v=[u(x,y);v(x,y);0)] y tsunami Numerical Modeling

3 Numerical Mareograms - Inundation Each bay Données : Grids bathymetry and topography Numerical Modeling

Tsunami generated by landslide Generation Propagation Inundation Numerical Modeling

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Aftershocs Rupture zone Main shoc

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Initiation

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height (in deep ocean)

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Maximum Tsunami height Directivity due to the focal mechanism  Amplitud very different at the same distance ratio >10 Less damage on the coast at > 500 km than in front at 4000 km 0.1 m 1 m

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Travel Time 1h 2h 3h 1h 2h

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 26 December 2004 Tsunami Sri Lanka Colombo Sea-level data Arrival time : 2h40 after EQ Amplitude > 2m

State of Early Warnings

1Detection of Large Earthquakes (M > 7.0) Seismic Network 1Real Time Data 2Broad Band or long period seismometers 2Tsunami Detection Sea level Network 1Near Real Time Data 2Tide gage, pressure gage, DART boye

COMPONENTTECHNOLOGY PRODUCT 3. WARNING Measurement Early Detection GUIDANCE Telecomm Real-Time Data Numerical Simul Wave Forecast Warning Dissem “to the last km” Rat Island, 17 Nov 2003 DART Hazard Reduction Strategy: Warning Guidance

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : COLLECTION of SEISMIC DATA (Real Time) PTWC ACTIVITIES

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 1 RAPID INITIAL WARNING : Automatic ANALYSIS of SEISMIC DATA Detection, location, magnitude estimation Manual verification (geophysicist) If Epicenter located under the ocean or on the coast The focal depth < 60 km And the Magnitude > 7.8 A tsunami can be generated PTWC ACTIVITIES

EARLY WARNING TREMORS SYSTEM

TREMORS Sismometers

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : COLLECTION and ANALYSIS of WATER LEVEL DATA PTWC ACTIVITIES

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES 2 CONFIRM AND MONITOR THE TSUNAMI : Tsunami warning is confirmed if the tsunami amplitude is greater than 50cm - 1 m in the gages Tsunami warning is canceled in the other cases PTWC ACTIVITIES

PTWC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES CPPT

Mitigation Warning Guidance Hazard Assessment Hazard Reduction Strategy: Assessment, Preparedness, Warning

Indian Ocean IOTWS Sea Level Network Subduction zone 1 Indian Ocean Warning Center National Warning Centers