The 2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and Florida Post-Election Jewish Surveys November 2012

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Methodology National survey of 800 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2010; margin of error +/- 3.5 percent Ohio statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent Florida statewide survey of 600 Jewish voters in 2012 election conducted November 6, 2012; margin of error +/- 4 percent National survey administered by invitation to web-based panel of 900,000 Americans; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study Ohio and Florida surveys conducted by landline telephones and cell phones, calling a random sample of registered voters with Jewish names and people who self-identify as Jewish in consumer data that has been appended to the state voter files; respondents re-screened as Jewish at beginning of questionnaire in order to be eligible for the study 1

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Bottom Line Takeaway of 2012 Jewish Vote  In an election where Obama enjoyed a narrow victory with the overall American electorate, he had an overwhelming victory with the Jewish electorate.  The shift in Obama’s Jewish vote from 2008 reflects shifts in other constituencies such as such as college graduates, whites, Independents, voters under 30, and Catholics.  Obama is more trusted than Romney on all issues, ranging from Social Security and Medicare (65-26) and the economy (56-32) to dealing with Iran (58-26) and Israel (53-31).  Ultimately, the Jewish vote was driven by a mixture of strong support for President Obama (67 percent job approval), a growing sense that he is turning things around for the country (55 percent right direction), positive feelings toward the Democratic Party (54 favorable / 33 unfavorable), and intense opposition to Mitt Romney (29 favorable / 62 unfavorable) and the Republican Party (26 favorable / 64 unfavorable). 2

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Key Findings  Nationwide and in two key swing states, overwhelming support for Obama and Democratic candidates among American Jews. Obama receives 70 percent of Jewish votes nationally, 69 percent in Ohio, and 68 percent in Florida Senator Sherrod Brown receives 71 percent in Ohio ;Senator Bill Nelson receives 72 percent in Florida  Economy is top voting issue (53 percent), followed by health care (32 percent), Social Security and Medicare (23 percent), and the deficit and government spending (20 percent). Israel is top issue for 10 percent of Jewish voters and Iran is top issue for 2 percent.  Jews hold progressive views on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. Strong support for U.S. playing an active role to help resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, even if it means publicly stating disagreements with the Israelis and the Arabs (69 percent support) 76 percent support the U.S. putting forth a peace plan that proposes borders and security 72 percent support comprehensive agreement along the lines of the Clinton parameters  Addressing Iranian threat elicits mixed views among Jews– 47 percent want to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work before setting red lines, 35 percent think diplomacy and sanctions have failed and it’s now time to set red lines. 3

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote 2012 Jewish Vote2012 Jewish Vote National, Ohio, and FloridaNational, Ohio, and Florida 4

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote 2012 Presidential Vote 5

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote President and Congress Vote - Nationwide 6

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote 2008 and 2012 Election Results Comparison Between Jewish and Other Constituencies 7 % Democrat / % RepublicanObama Vote Shift to 2012 Total53 / 4650 / 49-3 Jewish74 / 2670 / 30-4 Unmarried women70 / 3067 / 31-3 Hispanics67 / 3171 / 27+4 Voters under 30 years-old66 / 3260 / 37-6 College Graduate53 / 4550 / 48-3 Independents52 / 4445 / 50-7 Whites43 / 5539 / 59-4 No religion75 / 2370 / 26-5 Other religion73 / 2274 / 23+1 Catholics54 / 4550 / 48-4 Protestants45 / 5442 / 57-3 White Evangelicals24 / 7421 / 78-3 Source: Exit poll data

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Historical Perspective: Jewish Vote in Presidential Elections Exit polls have reported that the Democratic presidential candidate has received between 64 and 80 percent of the Jewish vote since 1972, except 1980 Average Democratic vote share: 70 percent Year% of Jewish Vote DemocratRepublicanIndependent Source: Exit poll data

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Impact of the Jewish Vote 9 Source: 2012 exit polls Jewish Population % 2012 Vote Results Among all Voters (Obama/Romney) New York6 62 / 36 Florida5 50 / 49 Pennsylvania4 52 / 47 New Jersey3 58 / 41 Nevada3 52 / 46 Ohio1 50 / 48

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Presidential and Senate Vote Ohio / Florida 10 Obama Romney Sherrod Brown Josh Mandel Obama Romney Bill Nelson Connie Mack

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Very Few Romney Voters Considered Obama (ROMNEY VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Barack Obama for President? How seriously did you think about voting for Barack Obama -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 11

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Sizable Number of Obama Voters Considered Romney (OBAMA VOTERS) Think back in time for a minute. Did you, at any point in this campaign, think about voting for Mitt Romney for President? (IF YES) How seriously did you think about voting for Mitt Romney -- very seriously, somewhat seriously, or only a little seriously? 12

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Presidential Financial Contributions – 2008 and 2012 In the 2008 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of John McCain? In the 2012 Presidential election, did you make a financial contribution to the campaign of Barack Obama or the campaign of Mitt Romney? 13

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Driving Factors Behind the Jewish VoteDriving Factors Behind the Jewish Vote 14

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Country Direction Growing Sense that US is Headed in Right Direction 15

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Top TWO Issues in Deciding 2012 Presidential Vote 16 NationalOhioFlorida The economy Health care Social Security and Medicare The deficit and government spending Taxes1275 Abortion1015 Israel10914 Terrorism and national security10 9 Education91413 The environment564 Iran224 Energy423 Illegal immigration422

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Obama and Congress Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama/Congress is doing? 17 Strongly disapprove Strongly approve Total approve Total disapprove Strongly disapprove Strongly approve Total approve Total disapprove 31

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National Now, something different. Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict 18

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Obama Handling of Arab-Israeli Conflict National, Ohio, Florida Which of the following statements best describes how you view President Obama’s handling of the Arab-Israeli conflict? 19

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Favorability Ratings - National 20 Bill Clinton Barack Obama Benjamin Netanyahu The Democratic Party Joe Biden

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Favorability – National, Ohio, and Florida NationalOhioFlorida Fav / Unfav Barack Obama61 / 3168 / 2766 / 29 Mitt Romney29 / 6230 / 60 The Democratic Party54 / 3361 / 2659 / 28 The Republican Party26 / 6424 / 6424 / 63 Sherrod Brown--62 / 25-- Josh Mandel--22 / 68-- Bill Nelson-- 53 / 23 Connie Mack-- 14 / 59 Debbie Wasserman Schultz-- 46 / 28 21

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country National Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? 22 Obama total better Romney much better Obama much better Romney total better

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Brown vs. Mandel on Issues Facing Our Country Ohio Do you think Democrat Sherrod Brown or Republican Josh Mandel would do a better job on this issue? 23 Brown much better jobMandel much better job Brown total better jobMandel total better job 23

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Do you think Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney would do a better job on this issue? Obama vs. Romney on Issues Facing Our Country Florida 24 Obama much better jobRomney much better job Obama total better job Romney total better job 30 34

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Impact of Attacks on Obama and DemocratsImpact of Attacks on Obama and Democrats 25

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Awareness of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements or receive any mail pieces criticizing President Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel? 26

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Impact of Ads Criticizing Obama on Israel National / Ohio Did any of these television advertisements or mail pieces criticizing Obama for his positions or actions toward Israel make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 27 Much more likely ObamaMuch more likely Romney No difference Total Obama Total Romney

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Awareness of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Now, I’d like to ask you something different. During the presidential election, did you see any television advertisements with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking about Iran? 28

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Impact of Netanyahu Advertisements Florida Did any of these television advertisements with Prime Minister Netanyahu make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who saw an ad or received mail) 29 Much more likely ObamaMuch more likely Romney Somewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Netanyahu Involvement with Presidential Campaign National Based on your own observation of the 2012 Presidential election, do you think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took steps to try and help one of the candidates running for U.S. President? 30

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Impact of Netanyahu Involvement Did Prime Minister Netanyahu’s efforts to help make you more likely to support Barack Obama, more likely to support Mitt Romney, or make no difference? (among voters who felt that Netanyahu tried to help a candidate) 31 Much more likely Obama Much more likely Romney Somewhat more likely Obama Somewhat more likely Romney

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict 32

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United States Role in Resolving Arab-Israeli Conflict 33

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Support for Bill Clinton as Middle East Envoy Imagine for a minute that the winning U.S. Presidential candidate appoints former President Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy with the responsibility of bringing Israelis and Palestinians together to negotiate a final status agreement. Regardless of who you voted for in this year’s Presidential election, would you support or oppose the appointment of Bill Clinton to serve as a special Middle East Peace Envoy? 34 Strongly oppose Strongly support Total support Total oppose

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Majority Support Comprehensive Peace Agreement As you may know, on a few occasions during the past 10 years, Israeli, Palestinian, and American negotiators came close to reaching a final status peace agreement but ultimately fell short. The details of that agreement include: 35 A demilitarized Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Internationally recognized borders based on the borders that existed in 1967, with mutually agreed land swaps that allow for most Jewish settlers in the West Bank to be inside Israel while the Palestinians get comparable land areas in return Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem become part of the new Palestinian state while Israel retains control of Jewish neighborhoods and the Western Wall in Jerusalem International forces to monitor the new Palestinian state and border crossings Financial compensation for Palestinian refugees while allowing some refugees to return to Israel if they meet specific family reunification criteria and the Israeli government approves

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Peace is Core US Interest and US Should Use Assertive Diplomacy Instead of Leaving it to Israelis and Palestinians Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 36

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote U.S. Negotiation Role Fair and Impartial Broker vs. Siding with Israel Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right 37

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote American Jews Support Public Debate Over Israel Policy 1 st Statement: It bothers me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy nd Statement: It does not bother me when American Jews disagree publicly with Israeli government policy. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 2 nd Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Total2 nd Statement Total

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Iranian Sanctions Need More Time vs. Failed 1st Statement: Before setting red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, the United States needs to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to work. 39 2nd Statement: Diplomacy and sanctions have failed to stop Iran from continuing its efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and it is now time for the United States to set red lines that, if crossed, will trigger an American military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Below are some pairs of statements. After reading each pair, please mark whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. 2 nd Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Strongly 1 st Statement Total2 nd Statement Total

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote U.S. Focus in the Middle East Iran and Israel-Palestinian Conflict Warrant Same Attention Which of the following statements best describes how you feel about how the U.S. should focus its attention in the Middle East? 40

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United Nations Relationship with Israel Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? 41

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United Nations Relationship with Israel by Age Thinking about Israel and the United Nations, overall do you think the United Nations treats Israel fairly or unfairly? 42 Not at all fairlyVery fairly Total fair Total unfair Very fairly Total fair Not at all fairly Total unfair

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – 43

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote United States Vote to Grant Non-Member Observer Palestinian State Status by Age As you may know, Palestinian leaders are planning to ask the United Nations General Assembly to grant non-member observer state status to an independent Palestinian state. If such a vote takes place, do you think the United States should vote – 44

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Support for Two–State Solution 45

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Support for a Two-State Solution (SPLIT A) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. 46

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Support for a Two-State Solution with East Jerusalem as Capital of Palestinian State (SPLIT B) I support a two-state solution that declares an end to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, resulting in all Arab countries establishing full diplomatic ties with Israel and creating an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, with its capital in East Jerusalem. 47

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Two-State Solution Necessary for Israel’s Security and Jewish Democratic Character A two-state solution is necessary to strengthen Israeli security and ensure Israel’s Jewish democratic character 48

Figure GBA Strategies – 2012 Jewish Vote Two-State Solution Important for American Security A two-state solution is an important national security interest for the United States. 49

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