1 MDG Country Progress Snapshots Yongyi Min United Nations Statistics Division United Nations Statistics Division

2 Outline ● MDG Country Progress Snapshots structure ● Methodology used for the progress assessment ● Outputs and issues

3 Country Progress Snapshots ● Purpose: –MDG Country Progress Snapshots provide a summary overview of the progress achieved since 1990 on the Millennium Development Goals at country level. –It responses requests from the international community and UN system to understand the progress made at country level. ● Hard copy of samples of the Country Progress Snapshots can be found in your folder for this meeting.

4 Country Progress Snapshots Structure ● Country Progress Snapshot evaluates the same targets chosen for the Global Progress Chart. ● It uses a set of 20 indicators to assess 17 targets for the 8 goals. ● Country coverage: all countries or areas in the developing regions (according to the latest MDG regional groupings).

5 Country Progress Snapshots Structure ● Display the first year and latest year values for each indicator. ● Display the latest value for the region to which the country belongs. It allows comparison of the country progress level with the regional average level. ● Determine level and trend for each target ● Use a time series chart to show the progress trend over the years.

6 Country Progress Snapshots Structure ● Example:

7 Methodology Used for the Assessment The snapshot uses similar methodology to assess the progress as the ones used for the Global Progress Chart: ● The methodology used for each target was developed by UNSD in collaboration with the responsible agency

8 Methodology Used for the Assessment Levels of progress (1) ● Levels are based on the latest available data. ● Levels are defined by the responsible agency: (Very low), low, moderate, high, (very high). ● E.g. Target 1. A. Reduce extreme poverty by half (based on “Percentage of population living below a $1 per day”) –Low < 6 –Moderate 6 – 15 –High 15 – 25 –Very high >25

9 Methodology Used for the Assessment Levels of progress (2): Difference from the Global Progress Chart on Target 1. C: Reduce hunger by half (based on indicator “Percentage of undernourished in total population”) Level thresholdsCountry Progress Snapshot Global Progress Chart < 5very low hungerlow hunger [5, 15)moderately low hungermoderate hunger [15, 25)moderately high hungerhigh hunger [25,35)high hunger very high hunger > 35very high hunger

10 Methodology Used for the Assessment Fast progress Medium-slow progress No progress or deterioration Missing or insufficient data Progress trends (1): colours used in the country assessment

11 Methodology Used for the Assessment Progress trends (2): Methodology ● Progress is measured mainly through trends and forecasts for the year ● Linear and exponential models were used as appropriate. ● For most indicators, the models use all available data rather than just the first and last data points. ● Some exceptions apply.

12 Methodology Used for the Assessment Progress trends (3): Exceptions ● Progress on “Productive and decent employment” is assessed by using 4 indicators. However, the data coverage for two indicators is not good. The snapshot only shows the data and charts for the two indicators with good data coverage, but not the progress. ● If country has a marked “V” or “inverted-V” shape, sometimes earlier years data were discarded. ● Progress on “Under-five morality rate” is assessed by calculating an average annual rate of reduction (AARR), based on the assumption of a continuous, exponential reduction between two points in time. It does not take into account the intermediate values in the series. This is to be consistent with UNICEF country assessment.

13 Methodology Used for the Assessment Progress trends (4): Missing or insufficient data ● A country was classified in the grey colour if: –No data available –If there’s only one data point (assessment of progress can not be done) –No data before 2000 or after 2000 (i.e. assessment of progress needed at least one data point before 2000 and one data point after 2000) –Extreme cases, like countries with data only for two consecutive years – 1999 and 2000, were in general also considered grey

14 Methodology Used for the Assessment Progress chart: The chart show the progress trend for each indicator. –Bar chart is used when data are not available for every year and this is to avoid interpolation. –Line chart is used when data are available for all years.

15 Outputs ● The snapshots will be released for all countries or areas in the developing regions. ● The technical notes on the methodology used will be made available soon. ● Separate progress charts for each region will be produced. The regional progress chart will show the number of countries allocated to each colour and each progress level (using pie charts).

16 Issues ● The country snapshot is only to look at contribution by countries to global/regional trends. It mainly serves the requests from the international community and UN system. There might be data discrepancies between national and international sources. ● Since MDGs are not national targets, language of “on track / off track” are not used at country level to describe progress. Fast, Medium-low, and no progress are proposed to be used in the snapshot. ● No numerical target was set for Goal 8. Therefore it is difficult to assess progress achieved for developed countries.