NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable.

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Presentation transcript:

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and US Power Sectors Eduardo Ibanez, Ph.D. Owen Zinaman Energy Policy Research Conference September 10-11, 2015 Denver, Colorado

2 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute ReEDS Model Designed to explore potential electric-sector growth scenarios in the U.S. out to 2050 under different economic, technology, and policy assumptions. This presentation summarizes the effort to include the Canadian footprint (Regional Energy Deployment System Model) Zinaman, O., Ibanez, Eduardo, Heimiller, Donna, Eurek, Kelly, & Mai, Trieu. (2015). Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and U.S. Power Sectors with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS).

3 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Data Sources (Primarily) United States: Energy Information Administration’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2014” Canada: National Energy Board’s “Canada’s Energy Future 2013” ABB’s Velocity Suite for capacity and retirements

4 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Data Sources (Renewables) Solar irradiation from NREL databases Wind: Environment Canada data harmonized with DOE’s Wind Vision Study input data

5 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute International REC Trading Rules in ReEDS Renewable Electricity Certificates tied to power delivery

6 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Scenario matrix Scenario Name Scenario DescriptionSensitivity Group BaseCaseReference— HiGas High Natural Gas Price (AEO 2014 Low Oil &Gas Resource Case) Natural gas LoGas Low Natural Gas Price (AEO 2014 High Oil & Gas Resource Case) SeparateRESeparate U.S. and Canada RE requirement 60% energy by 2036 High RE JointREJoint U.S. and Canada RE requirement 60% energy by 2036 HiCanHydroCanadian hydro capacity increases 15 GW by 2035 Canadian hydropower

7 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Reference scenario (I)

8 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Reference scenario (II)

9 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Reference scenario (III)

10 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Sensitivities: Capacity

11 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Sensitivities: Transmission and Imports

12 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Sensitivities: CO 2 emissions

13 Informative Only – Please Do Not Cite or Distribute Conclusions U.S. and Canada are already tightly integrated electrically Expansion models should reflect it Dynamic behavior of ReEDS implementation allows for the interchange of power, reserves and firmed capacity Significant capacity across the border, driven by regional stories Additional work is necessary to harmonize input datasets

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and US Power Sectors Eduardo Ibanez, Ph.D. Owen Zinaman Energy Policy Research Conference September 10-11, 2015 Denver, Colorado