WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Advancing Climate Prediction Science – Decadal Prediction Mojib Latif Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel University,

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Presentation transcript:

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Advancing Climate Prediction Science – Decadal Prediction Mojib Latif Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel University, Germany

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Outline Why decadal prediction Mechanisms of decadal variability What is the decadal predictability potential Challenges

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 “Climate surprises” cooling

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Decadal variations in Sahel rainfall ?

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Decadal variations in Atlantic hurricane activity

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Decadal variability in sea level Kwajalein (8°44’N, 167°44’E) Linear trend

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Global change prediction is a joint initial/boundary value problem IPCC 2007 Projections were not initialized in IPCC-AR4

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 The uncertainty in climate projections for the 21 st century internal variability scenario model bias Hawkins and Sutton 2009 unpredictable external influences

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Outline Why decadal prediction Mechanisms of decadal variability What is the decadal predictability potential Challenges

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Internal vs. external influences How much did internal decadal variability contribute to the warming during the recent decades?

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation How much of the decadal NAO variability is forced by changes in the boundary conditions?

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 North Atlantic SST (70 o W - 0, o N) Decadal North Atlantic sea surface temperature variations Changes in hurricane activity and Sahel rain, for instance, can be traced back to variations in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST)

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Outline Why decadal prediction Mechanisms of decadal variability What is the decadal predictability potential Challenges

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Potential predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) Boer 2004 Derived from control integrations with climate models North Atlantic SST Knight et al The North Atlantic Sector appears to be one of the promising regions

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Predictability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) Hurrell et al The MOC is predicable at a lead of one to two decades in perfect model studies

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Strong volcanic eruptions, for instance, can cause global cooling of about 0,2°C for a few years and persist even longer in the ocean heat content. If they happen, we can exploit their long-lasting climatic effects. Solar constant Unpredictable external influences ?

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Large spread for the next decade „MOC“ 3 climate model hind/forecasts Hurrell et al observations

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Outline Why decadal prediction Mechanisms of decadal variability What is the decadal predictability potential Challenges

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Climate observing system We need climate observations to initialize the models to forecast variations up to decadal time scales Example: ocean observing system Multi-national Argo fleet

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Model biases are large IPCC 2007 ensemble mean error Typical bias in surface air temperature (SAT) Errors of several degrees C in some regions

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Gulfstream SST front Represention of small-scale processes

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Resolution matters The AGCM has T239 horizontal resolution (~50 km) and 48 levels Minobe et al Compared to the smoothed SST run, rain-bearing low pressure systems tend to develop along the Gulf Stream front in the control simulation

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Where are we today? A decadal predictability potential for a number of societal relevant quantities is well established. We need a better understanding of the mechanisms of decadal variability We need a suitable climate observing system (ocean, land surface, sea ice...) We need „good“ models! We know from NWP that reduction of systematic bias helps. Biases in climate models are still large

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 To realize the full decadal predictability potential we need a coordinated scientific programme under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Thank you for your attention

WCC-3, Geneva, 31 Aug-4 Sep 2009 Decadal variability in sea level Topex/Poseidon