The European Environment State and Outlook 2015 The EEA is mandated in its governing regulation to publish a State of the Environment Report (SOER) every five years, to assess the European environment’s state, trends and prospects. The latest edition was published on 4 March 2015. It was titled: The European environment: state and outlook 2015, here referred to as ‘SOER 2015’.

SOER has a long history at the EEA 1995 - report (151 pp) + summary SOER 1995 - addresses 5 EAP targets - focus on sectoral integration 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 - big report (446 pp) + summary SOER 1999 - addresses environmental trends - focus on DPSIR, link between issues 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 - bigger report (569 pp, Part A, B & C) SOER 2005 - addresses air, water, land - focus on DPSIR, core set of indicators 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - several reports (Parts A, B, C + Synthesis) SOER 2010 - addresses 6EAP priority areas - focus on systemic challenges 2011 2012 2013 ... 3

A multi-annual project drawing on a wide range of inputs and involving diverse stakeholders Input from a broad range of stakeholders including 39 Eionet countries, Commission Services and a cross-sectoral stakeholder group for the SOER 2015 Synthesis report Publication 2015 2010 2011 - Reflecting 2012 - Planning 2013 - Preparing 2014 - Producing 2015 Two phases of peer review Over 1,500 comments recieved on the Synthesis report alone Extensive country engagement across the SOER Input from EEA Management Board and Scientific Committee 4

SOER 2015 A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends 11 briefings Global megatrends 25 briefings European briefings 9 briefings Cross-country comparisons 39+3 briefings Countries and regions

The policy context Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’ Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

Key messages from SOER 2015 Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation I just want to show you where I’m going to end up with the main messages…. I’m going to go into each of these messages in a bit more detail in the coming slides. Bullet 1: this is the message that emerges from integration. Bullet 2: we face systemic challenges > what we mean by this is… Bullet 3: © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

Eco-industries have prospered despite the recession in Europe Eco-industry value added Eco-industry employment Total EU GDP Total EU employment I just want to show you where I’m going to end up with the main messages…. I’m going to go into each of these messages in a bit more detail in the coming slides. Bullet 1: this is the message that emerges from integration. Bullet 2: we face systemic challenges > what we mean by this is… Bullet 3: © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Source: Eurostat, 2014.

Assessing past trends and future outlooks The Synthesis report addresses the three thematic priority objectives of the 7th EAP: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Two overall patterns emerge: Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not translated into increased ecosystem and social resilience The long-term outlook is often less positive than recent trends © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity  Land use and soil functions No target  Ecological status of freshwater bodies  Water quality and nutrient loading    Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts Marine and coastal biodiversity Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target 20+ years outlook Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Material resource efficiency and material use No target Waste management  Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation  /  Energy consumption and fossil fuel use     Transport demand and related environmental impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Water use and water quantity stress  20+ years outlook   Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Progress to policy targets Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health   Past (5–10 year) trends Progress to policy targets Water pollution and related environmental health risks  /  Air pollution and related environmental health risks  Noise pollution (especially in urban areas) Urban systems and grey infrastructure    No target  Climate change and related environmental health risks Chemicals and related environmental health risks  /  20+ years outlook   /     Largely on track Partially on track Largely not on track    Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Past (5–10) year trends   20+ years outlook   / Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Understanding past trends and future outlooks Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects: The changing global context Competition for resources Pressures from outside Europe Planetary boundaries Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges Complexity Uncertainty Environmental, social and economic interdependencies © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA

There are multiple implications of global megatrends for Europe Europe is bound to the rest of the world through multiple systems, enabling two-way flows of materials, financial resources, innovations and ideas. Europe’s societal resilience is expected to be significantly affected in coming decades by a variety of global megatrends: large-scale, high impact and often interdependent social, technological, economic, environmental or political changes.

Looking ahead: Systemic challenges require systemic solutions Not just incremental efficiency gains Source: Tesla but fundamental transitions in food, energy, urban, mobility, finance and fiscal systems through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

Looking ahead: Building on 40 years of European and national policies Reducing environmental pressures or offsetting harmful effects Precautionary principle: avoid potential harm (or counter-productive actions) in highly complex and uncertain situations Remediating environmental degradation (where possible) or other costs imposed on society Some environmental change inevitable: anticipate adverse effects of specific environmental changes Source: EEA.

Looking ahead: Innovation Economic, technological and social innovations can support long-term transitions to a green economy This requires upscaling niche innovations such as collaborative consumption and prosumerism Publicly funded research has fostered many of the most important and commercially successful innovations Essential to consider what type of innovation Europe wants – the four environment principles of the EU Treaty can be a guide Collaborative consumption focuses on the ways that consumers can obtain products or services more effectively and resource-efficiently. Prosumerism reduces the distinction between the producer and consumer and is occurring through distributed energy production systems. Social innovation is a problem-solving approach that entails developing new concepts, strategies and organisational forms to better meet societal needs. Eco-innovation and eco-design go further than technological innovation and incorporate environmental considerations into product design, production and life cycle. © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Innovation in urban systems: green infrastructure Air trees, Madrid Urban forest, Milano Collaborative consumption focuses on the ways that consumers can obtain products or services more effectively and resource-efficiently. Prosumerism reduces the distinction between the producer and consumer and is occurring through distributed energy production systems. Social innovation is a problem-solving approach that entails developing new concepts, strategies and organisational forms to better meet societal needs. Eco-innovation and eco-design go further than technological innovation and incorporate environmental considerations into product design, production and life cycle. © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: Investing today for the long term European investment needs are huge and today’s choices will determine our future pathways of development The EU has committed to spend at least 20% of the 2014- 2020 budget on transforming Europe into a clean and competitive low-carbon economy Need to avoid investments that lock in existing patterns and limit options Shifting taxation and phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies can stimulate investment and innovation in this direction © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Fiscal policy signals have decoupled in wrong direction from GDP (EU27) Late 1990s similar growth rates of GDP and tax revenues Since 2003 energy and environment tax revenues growth flat Large differences between Member States – see EEA paper I just want to show you where I’m going to end up with the main messages…. I’m going to go into each of these messages in a bit more detail in the coming slides. Bullet 1: this is the message that emerges from integration. Bullet 2: we face systemic challenges > what we mean by this is… Bullet 3: © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Source: EEA, 2015, based on Eurostat data.

Looking ahead: Expanding the knowledge base SOER 2015 knowledge base will not be fit for SOER 2020 Need for improved knowledge on environment-economy interactions and long-term systemic perspectives Environmental knowledge community (EKC) and key Knowledge Innovation Projects (KIP) Shift from problem to solution focused knowledge base © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: SOER 2015 as a resource © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: SOER 2015 as a resource © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: SOER 2015 as a resource © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: SOER 2015 as a resource © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead: Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050 Achieving the 2050 vision is possible but it depends on our actions and investments today. Systemic change must deliver decent employment, opportunities and fairness, as well as respecting environmental limits. SOER 2015 illustrates the success of European policy. We should be confident in entering a new stage of environmental governance.  - although full implementation of existing policies will be essential, neither the environmental policies currently in place nor economic and technology-driven efficiency gains will be sufficient to achieve Europe’s 2050 vision. Europe needs more coherent and ambitious policies, alongside better knowledge and smarter investments aimed at transforming key systems such as food, energy, housing, transport, finance, health and education. In setting out the challenge and identifying potential respnoses, SOER 2015 expands the knowledge base for effective decision-making. © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA

Explore SOER 2015 online: eea.europa.eu/soer

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