Chapter 10 VOTING AND ELECTIONS Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005

Bush Wins the 2004 Presidential Election ● After a long, bitter, and closely contested campaign, Bush won both the electoral and the popular vote ● The campaign was especially long because both candidates were known early ● Both campaigns launched full-scale attacks, using the massive amounts of money collected by official campaign organizations, state and national party organizations, and associated advocacy groups ► McCain-Feingold law ► 527 advocacy organizations ► Fierce partisanship ● 60% voting turnout, the highest since 1968 ● Continued importance of, and focus on, the electoral college

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Elections and Democracy  Elections are essential for democratic politics.  Elections are the principal means by which popular sovereignty and majority rule are supposed to work.  Can elections ensure that governments will do what the people want?

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Theories of democratic two-party control of government  Prospective (or Responsible party) voting model  Theory: Voters decide what government will do in the near future by choosing one or another responsible party (a party that takes a clear stand on the issues and enacts them as policy).  Problems:  American parties may not behave as “responsible parties.”  Voters may actually be choosing the “less unpopular” stand rather than the one that they prefer (as the public does not choose the party platforms).  As the Republican and Democratic parties become more ideologically distinct, political conflict becomes more intense.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005  Electoral Competition Voting Model  Theory: parties seeking votes move toward the median voter or the center of the political spectrum  Problems: voters must consider nothing but the issues and must know exactly where the parties stand  Still, electoral competition is probably one of the main reasons that government policy is significantly influenced by public opinion.

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 Retrospective (or Reward and Punishment) Voting Model  Theory: Voters look back at the performance of a party in power and cast ballots on the basis of how well it did in office.  Problems:  often, an incumbent’s record is mixed  no guarantee that future leaders will be better

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Imperfect Electoral Democracy  Each of these three processes of democratic control works to some extent.  None of them works well enough to guarantee perfectly democratic outcomes.  Each requires more unified political parties than we have.  Money givers, activists, and leaders of organized groups have more influence than do ordinary citizens.  As shown in the 2000 presidential election, not all ballots cast by voters are actually counted.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 American Elections in Comparative Perspective ßThe U.S. has more elections than any other democratic nation. ßElections in the U.S. are separate and independent from one another. ßElections fill government positions that have fixed terms of office. ßNational (and state-wide) elections are held on a fixed date. ßElections in the U.S. are almost always based on “first past the post.”

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Political Participation  Political participation refers to political activity by individual citizens.  Unconventional participation — includes activities such as demonstrations and boycotts  Conventional participation — includes activities such as voting, writing letters, contacting officials, giving money

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Expansion of the franchise  The franchise was quite restricted in the early years of the United States.  Restrictions based on property, tax-paying, and religion mostly disappeared by  Restrictions based on race, gender, and age ended only after difficult and painful struggles.  However, the proportion of the voting-age population that is eligible to vote has dropped in recent years  large influx of immigrants who are not citizens  denial of the right to vote for former felons

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Direct Partisan Elections ßOld indirect methods of electing officials have been replaced by more direct methods. ßEven with the electoral college, the election of the president has become more directly democratic. ßWith primary elections, voters directly choose candidates for election. ßIn 1913, the Senate became directly elected rather than being chosen by state legislatures.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Low Voting Turnout  During the first century of American history, suffrage expanded to more groups, and larger and larger proportions voted.  Since then, voting rates have declined dramatically.  The ideal of political equality is violated by low rates of voter turnout.

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Causes of Low Voter Turnout  Barriers to voting  Registration  Non-holiday election day  Lack of attractive choices  Too much complexity  Alienation  Lack of general voter mobilization by political parties

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Campaigning Involvement  Despite low voter turnout levels, Americans are more likely than people in other countries to participate actively in campaigns.  Areas of involvement  Contact officials  Give money  Attend meetings  Attend political rallies  Work actively in a campaign organization

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Who Participates?  Income  Education  Race and ethnicity  Age  Gender

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Does It Matter Who Votes?  Some argue that the rate of participation is unimportant because the preferences of those who vote are similar to those who do not vote.  However, nonvoters are clearly different from voters.  Broader participation would increase popular sovereignty and political equality.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Campaigning for Office  Contending for a presidential nomination  Characteristics of nominees — who has a chance?  Getting started  Primaries and caucuses  National conventions

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Nomination Politics and Democracy  Crucial role of party activists and money givers  Incumbents

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005  The fall campaign traditionally began on Labor Day, but now tends to start right after the conventions or earlier.  Campaign organizations set up in each state  Intense money raising, combined with a new round of public financing  Media blitz  Focus groups  Voter registration and voter turnout campaigns  Informing voters  issues  past performance  personal characteristics The Autumn Campaign

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Money and Elections  Presidential campaigns cost enormous amounts of money.  The cost has increased rapidly over time.  Campaign spending may not look so big when compared with corporate advertising.

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005  The source of campaign money is far more problematic for democracy than the cost of presidential elections.  Where does the money come from?  Government subsidies  PACs  Individuals  Does money talk?  Role in nomination process  Role in policy formation  Special interests of money givers  Result: political inequality

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 How Voters Decide  Parties, candidates, and issues all have substantial effects on how people vote.  Social characteristics  Party loyalties  Candidates  Issues  retrospective voting  the economy  foreign policy  new issues

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The Impact of Campaigns ßMany factors that determine how voters decide are relatively fixed. ßBut research indicates that campaigns affect, on average, about 4% of the national vote. ßThis is quite important, given that the average margin of victory in presidential elections has been only about 5%

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 The Electoral College  When voting for president, American voters are actually voting for a slate of electors who have promised to support the candidate.  Almost all states now have winner-take-all systems.  The “college” of electors from the different states never meets; instead the winning slates are sent to D.C.  Consequences of the electoral college system  magnifies the popular support of the winner  may let the less popular candidate win (1876, 1888, 2000)  discourages third parties

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Voting, Elections, and Democracy  U.S. elections help make the public’s voice heard, but political equality is damaged by providing more political influence to some types of people than to others.