Carl Hershner Climate change impacts in Virginia.

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Presentation transcript:

Carl Hershner Climate change impacts in Virginia

Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C –longer growing season Storm frequency may increase –greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation –increase in fall, winter –decrease in summer CO 2 increase – plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft –salt water intrusion

marsh migration into upland

Pamunkey River

Hill Marsh

high marsh community in tidal freshwater

low marsh community in tidal freshwater

low marsh community in tidal freshwater

Sea level changes in Virginia

Relative sea level rise in Virginia Global sea level rise (1.7 – 3.6 mm/yr) – Melting ice caps – Warming (expanding) ocean water (0.4 – 1.6 mm/yr) Land sinking (1.1 – 4.8 mm/yr) – Isostatic glacial rebound (1mm/yr) – Local subsidence Ground water withdraw Meteor crater sediment compaction (0mm/yr) Ocean circulation (0.5 – 2 mm/yr)

seasonal ice melting in Greenland 1992 and 2002 areas of ice sheet melting in Antarctica melting ice caps

World ocean heat content - top 700 meters warming ocean water

glacier 100,000 yrs ago 20,000 yrs ago today isostatic glacial rebound

land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawals after Pope and Burbey, 2004

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Gulf Stream North Atlantic Current North Atlantic Deep Water

ft ft

Currently anticipated changes by 2100 Temperature +2 o C to +5 o C –longer growing season Storm frequency may increase –greater soil erosion, nutrient loss potential Precipitation –increase in fall, winter –decrease in summer CO 2 increase – plant growth effects Sea level +3 to +5 ft –salt water intrusion

24 Source: Change in Precipitation Patterns Intense precipitation events (the heaviest 1%) in the continental U.S. increased by 20% over the past century while total precipitation increased by 7%. FLOODS 24

Projected Change in Precipitation Source: USGCRP Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States DROUGHT 25

Carl Hershner Virginia Institute of Marine Science College of William and Mary

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