PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Global Causes and Midwest Consequences Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Faculty Director, University Honors Program Iowa State University Ames, Iowa st Annual Environmental Conference and Expo Iowa-Illinois Safety Council 27 September 2007
Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Four components for addressing climate change Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest: adaptation strategy Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,
CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
IPCC Third Assessment Report
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change Mitigation policies: –Example: reduction in GHG emissions Adaptation (long-term): –Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage Adaptation (short-term): –Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: –Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire EST personal view
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) Longer frost-free period (high) Higher average winter temperatures (high) Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) More (~10%) precipitation (medium) More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium) Higher absolute humidity (high) Stronger storm systems (medium) Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive
“Warming Hole” T max (JJA) ˚C
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: Contact me directly: Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: Or just Google Eugene Takle