1. Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC

2. Global and Regional Climate Change: The Future of Planet Earth
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Director, Climate Science Initiative
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
Chemical Engineering 302
Iowa State University
18 September 2008

3. Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing
Simulations of global climate and future climate change
Climate change for the US Midwest
Climate change and global food production
Impacts of climate change
Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,

5. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203,
Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles

6. IPCC Third Assessment Report

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2008
384 ppm

8. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050
550 ppm

9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm

10. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm ?

12. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

13. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

15. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

16. At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

22. Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models
2005
2008
2007
Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771

24. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

26. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

27. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles

28. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Not Natural

29. Highly Likely Not Natural
Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural

30. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
From Jerry Meehl
This slide shows the time evolution of globally averaged surface air
temperature from multiple ensemble simulations of 20th century climate
from the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM) compared to observations.
The simulations start in the late 19th century, and continue to the year
The temperature scale at left is in degrees Centigrade, and
temperature anomalies are calculated relative to a reference period
averaged from 1890 to The black line shows the observed data, or
the actual, recorded
globally averaged surface air temperatures from the past century. The
blue and red lines are the average of four simulations each from the
computer model. The pink and light blue shaded areas depict the range
of the four simulations for each experiment, giving an idea of the
uncertainty of a given realization of 20th century climate from the
climate model. The blue line shows the average from the four member
ensemble of the simulated time evolution of globally average surface air
temperature when only "natural" influences (solar variability and
volcanic eruptions) are included in the model. Therefore, the blue
line represents what the model says global average temperatures would
have been if there had been no human influences. The red line shows the
average of the four member ensemble experiment when natural forcings AND
anthropogenic influences (greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide,
sulfate aerosols from air pollution, and ozone changes) are included in
the model. Note that this model can reproduce the actual, observed data
very well only if the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic
factors are included. The conclusion that can be drawn is that
naturally occuring influences on climate contributed to most of the
warming that occurred before WWII, but that the large observed
temperature increases since the 1970s can only be simulated in the model
if anthropogenic factors are included.
This confirms the conclusion of the IPCC Third Assessment Report that
most of the warming we have observed in the latter part of the 20th
century has been due to human influences.
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

31. Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

32. Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption
The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

33. Energy intensive Energy conserving Mitigation Possible Adaptation
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Possible
Mitigation
Necessary
Adaptation
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

36. Projected changes in precipitation between and for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007

37. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,
2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol no. 5828, pp

38. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US
(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)
R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol no. 5828, pp

39. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature
Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More freeze-thaw cycles (high)
Increased temperature variability (high)
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive
*Estimated from IPCC reports

40. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation
More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)
Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)
More water-logging of soils (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)
Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium)
*Estimated from IPCC reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

41. Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other
Reduced wind speeds (high)
Reduced solar radiation (medium)
Increased tropospheric ozone (high)
Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)
Phenological stages are shortened high)
Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)
Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)
Plants have increased water used efficiency (high)
*Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

47. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007

48. Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture
IPCC 2007

49. Projected changes in precipitation between and for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC 2007

50. US Corn Yields (Bushels/Acre)

52. Grain and oilseed consumption
has exceeded production 7 of last 8 years
Tostle, Ronald, 2008: Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent
Increase in Food Commodity Prices WRS-0801 May USDA/ERS

54. A Few Areas Impacted by Climate Change
Crop & horticulture production
Soil erosion
Conservation practices
Water supplies
Stream flow
Water quality
Beef and pork daily gains
Livestock breeding success
Milk and egg production
Crop and livestock pests and pathogens
Biofuel production projection
Power demand for heating & cooling
Planning for droughts & floods
Agricultural tile drainage systems
Natural ecosystem species distributions
Human health (heat waves, influenza)
Building designs
Recreation opportunities
River navigation
Pavement performance (roads)
Corrosion rates (bridges)
Carbon sequestration/loss by soil
Forest productivity
Shipping limitations (Great Lakes)
Wind power resources
Winter maintenance costs (roads & bridges

55. Summary
Global temperature change of the last 30 years cannot be explained on the basis of natural radiative forcing alone. Only when anthropogenic effects are considered can we explain recent temperature trends
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century
Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years
Climate change will impact essentially every phase of your life

56. For More Information Or just Google Eugene Takle
For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:
Contact me directly:
Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:
Or just Google Eugene Takle