FY07 Hydro Group Proposals to AHPS SLF Theme Team Mike Smith October 12, 2006

HSEB HSMB Hydrologic Modeling Group Hydraulic Modeling Group Hydro Ensemble Prediction Group Hydrology Lab Hydro-Met Analysis Group Design Studies Center

Who is in our group? Seann Reed Mike Smith Victor Koren Fekadu Moreda Ziya Zhang Zhengtao Cui Fan Lei (10/31) Eric Anderson (1/4) Mike Seann Ziya Victor Fekadu Zhengtao Fan (Contractor)

New rainfall-runoff Models -DMIP 1,2 Energy Budget Snow Models (SNODAS) Distributed Snow-17 Improved Initial Model Parameters Improved Calibration Science -Multi-objective -Soil moisture + Other obs. Distributed Rainfall/Runoff Models Improved Calibration Tools -CAP -ICP Hydrologic Modeling Group General R&D Topics to Meet NOAA/NWS Goals - Better Forecast Accuracy - More Specific and Timely information on Fast Rising Floods Statistical Distributed Flash flood model Improved Site Specific Model - Prototype Products for Water Resources Program Soil Moisture Soil Tempature Surface Water

SLF Proposed Projects Thursday October 12, Calibration R&D 2. Prototype water resource products

1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks Need –Must deliver calibration tools to keep pace with new science releases, e.g., distributed modeling, ability to compute soil moisture, finer time/space scales etc. –Reduce overall effort to calibrate models (all models need calibration!) –Meet AHPS goals

FY06 AHPS Funding Calibration R&D TaskRequested $KReceived $K Distributed model calibration 300 Evaluate Simplified Line Search with SSURGO parameters 300

1. Calibration R&D FY06 Accomplishments 1.Soil moisture and calibration 2.Submit paper on Simplified Line Search (SLS) to OHD review 3.Presented findings at major int’l. hydrology conference 4.Explored use of X-DMS as a way to look for spatially uniform precip for lumped models. (DMIP 2)

Observed Simulated Soil Moisture 0-25 cm depth Observed Simulated Soil Moisture cm depth Observed Simulated Discharge Objective function: Minimize errors

1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.1 Incorporate soil moisture, temperature into lumped and distributed SAC calibration strategy –Develop ‘proof of concept’ narrative –Explore appropriate weighted objective functions –Explore other search algorithms –Develop appropriate averaging of soil moisture, temperature over desired area Deliverables –Guidelines on how to do it –Prototype calibration tools –Requirements for ICP enhancements

1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.2 Enhance Existing Statistics Program: STAT-Q What is STAT-Q? -Analyzes two time series for run-period and event statistics; prototype sent to all RFC’s several years ago, sub-daily time steps -Complements NWSRFS STAT-QME operation (limited to daily flows) Tasks –Add ability to analyze multiple time series (more than current two) –Add ability to output to Excel, ‘R’ etc for easy plotting –Create HOSIP documents for AWIPS Deliverables –Updated prototype tool and documentation –HOSIP documents for AWIPS delivery

1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.3 Auto-calibration of lumped and distributed models Proposed Approach: Auto calb. algorithm & a priori parameters Tasks - Modify distributed model to efficiently link to auto-calb procedures (current approach: manual scaling of parameters) –Explore appropriate multi-time scale objective functions –Determine appropriate search algorithms for this approach –Develop requirements to add new algorithms and new obj. functions to AWIPS NWSRFS OPT3 program Deliverables –Prototype distributed, lumped calibration tools –Requirements for ICP enhancements for lumped tools –Requirements for modifying NWSRFS OPT3 to include new items K= hours, days, months,… Minimize

1. Calibration R&D Cost Estimates TaskCost ($K) 1.1 Soil Moisture, etc. into calb process Enhance statistics program Auto Calibration: Lumped and Distributed models 96 Total144 Total with 25% overhead180

2. Prototype Water Resource Products - Motivation PrioritiesProductsPartners Water Information Services New hydrologic forecasting information services for drought and water management. Observations expanded to regional watersheds, covering coasts, rivers, and upland areas New analytical tools and predictive capabilities that link forecast models of water resources, hydrology, weather events, climate, and oceans USGS, EPA, state and local water resource managers 1. FY07 Hydrology Program Annual Guidance Memorandum Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services Produce water resource information fields from distributed models to support water resource management and environmental stewardship 2. NOAA AGM , page 8

‘We are also interested in the modified SAC model, particularly since we are somewhat “on the hook” to try to develop a soil moisture product (graphic) which conveys the current model states. This has been a recurring request (several years) which we have delayed, but was recently placed on a list in Central Region which specifies that we begin attempts to address this.” John Halquist, March 18, Prototype Water Resource Products - Motivation, cont’d 3. Existing RFC needs:

Observe Monitor & Predict Analyze Inform Mitigating Action Education Planning Physical Science Research Risk Reduction Research Physical Sciences Socioeconomic Sciences Watershed and soil condition forecasts for hazard resilient communities – Run-off or River flow – Soil moisture – Soil temperature – Precipitation – Snowpack – Surface storage – Ground water – Water temperature – Water quality Short- to long-term water risk information to support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship Water Resource Services Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006

High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL- RDHM and compare with other models Implementation of HL-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model uses: –Hillslope routing within each model cell –Cell-to-cell channel routing –Uncalibrated, a-priori parameters for Sacramento (SAC-SMA) and channel routing models Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006

HL-Distributed Model MOSAIC NCEP NLDAS Lower 30cmUpper 10cm Use of Soil Moisture to Evaluate Distributed Models HL model Higher Correlation 12 Initial test results: October 1998 – September 1999; 75 basins within the Oklahoma Mesonet Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006; Moreda et al., 2005

FY07 Tasks Continued evaluation of prototype products –Illinois (other) soil moisture data –Soil temperature data –Formal analysis of results from New Mexico rangeland study. Contribute to and leverage related projects –NLDAS: NCEP sponsored CONUS scale runs of several models –Leverage independent analyses of models and data –Compare NLDAS coarse scale to OHD fine-scale products Analyze surface water storage as new product

2. Prototype WR Products Cost Estimates TaskCost ($K) 2.1 Evaluate current prototype products with additional data Leverage related projects Analyze potential new product 12 Total72 Total with 25% overhead90

2. Prototype WR Products: Deliverables TaskDeliverable 2.1 Evaluate current prototype products with additional data Report on accuracy of products in various geographic regions 2.2 Leverage related projects Projects guided to meet NWS needs 2.3 Analyze potential new product Report on utility of surface water storage