1 The Economic Outlook for Connecticut Rae D. Rosen Senior Economist and Public Information Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York January 21, 2004

2 Key Points: Connecticut’s economy appears to be turning. The negligible rate of job growth in Q is projected to rise to around 1 percent in The fiscal picture is improving but will remain difficult well into 2005.

3 U.S. Average $43,057 Alaska New Jersey Maryland Connecticut Massachusetts New York Source : U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey. National Ranking Median Household Income 2002 New Hampshire

4 Consumer Price Index Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. United States New York and Northeastern New Jersey United States - Services United States - Durable Goods

5 Second District Unemployment Rates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

6 CT Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Seasonally Adjusted Claims Source: Connecticut Department of Labor Claims

7 Percent United States Percent Wages and Salaries Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut

8 Percent United States Percent Wages and Salaries Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut November Avg, Weekly Wages rose 3.6% November Avg, Weekly Wages rose 3.6%

9 Personal Income Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent United States New York Percent Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut

10 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Month over Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Connecticut United States

11 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Month over Month % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Connecticut United States

12 Connecticut Net Migration Returns Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income

13 Connecticut Migration Returns Connecticut In Connecticut Out Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income

14 Net Domestic and International Migration April 1990 to July 1999 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

15 Net Domestic and International Migration April 2000 to July 2002 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

16 New York ConnecticutNew Jersey Massachusetts CT to NJ 3,000 NJ to CT 3,200 Percent of Workers That Commute from Outside Area of Residence Source: U.S. Census Bureau CT to MA 14,000 MA to CT 27,000 NJ to NY 335,000 NY to NJ 126,000 CT to NY 60,000 NY to CT 41,000 MA to NY 5,000 NY to MA 6,000

17 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut

18 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut Hartford

19 Recent Trends in Regional Employment Percent change from 12 months earlier Percent United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBNY calculations. Connecticut Stamford Hartford

20 Growth in Service Jobs % change from November 2002 to November 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. **Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social

21 Growth in Service Jobs % change from November 2002 to November 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. **Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social

22 Growth in Service Jobs % change from November 2002 to November 2003 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Connecticut Department of Labor, FRBNY Calculations. *Data for Eating & Drinking and Accommodation are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Accommodation. **Data for Social and Health are combined at a higher NAICS level and reported as Social

23 Office Vacancy Rates Quarterly Percent Source: Coldwell Banker. United States- Metropolitan Note: Q Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield. Metropolitan NYC

24 Office Vacancy Rates Quarterly Percent Source: Coldwell Banker. United States- Metropolitan Metropolitan Stamford Note: Q Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield. Metropolitan NYC

25 Office Vacancy Rates Quarterly Percent Source: Coldwell Banker. United States- Metropolitan Metropolitan Stamford Note: Q Overall Office Vacancy rate for Hartford was 21.8%. Source: Cushman and Wakefield. Metropolitan NYC Hartford

26 Home Prices Percent change from 4 quarters earlier Percent Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. United States New York Connecticut

27 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans with Installments 90 Days Past Due Percent Source: Mortgage Bankers Association New York Connecticut United States

28 Percent of Residential Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure Started During the Quarter Percent Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Connecticut New York United States

29 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Highest Degree Obtained Percent of population 25 years old and older

30 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Highest Degree Obtained Percent of population 25 years old and older

31 Fairfield County Hartford County New York City (five boroughs) Median Household Income and Higher Education Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Note: Data are for counties, except where noted Percent of Population Age 25 and above with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher Westchester County Kings County (Brooklyn) Bronx County Suffolk County (Boston) Hartford City New Haven County Stamford City

32 Connecticut Immigrant and U.S Born Population by Educational Level 25 Years Old and Older (Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau

33 Earnings in Connecticut * Median Earnings 1999 for Connecticut population 25 and older with any income Source: U.S. Census Bureau