Warm - up Lunch Choices Power point Probably Probability Guided Practice Chance and Probability Independent Practice Activity: Is This Fair? Probability and Statistics

Warm up Lunch Choices Tonya has lots of choices for lunch today. She gets to choose one food from each group: 1.How many different lunch combinations are possible? 2. What are the choices unique to peanut and jelly? Write as a fraction, decimal and percent.

Warm up Lunch Choices Main course 2 xFruit or vegetable 2 Drink 3 x= 12 outcomes Main course Fruit or vegetable Drink Pizza Peanut butter & jelly Low fat milk Chocolate milk Apple juice Carrots & celery Low fat milk Chocolate milk Apple juice Carrots & celery Low fat milk Chocolate milk Apple juice Low fat milk Chocolate milk Apple juice

Warm up Lunch Choices 2. What are the choices unique to peanut and jelly? Write the outcome as a fraction, decimal and percent. Peanut butter & jelly/apple/low fat milk, Peanut butter & jelly/apple/chocolate milk, Peanut butter & jelly/apple/apple juice, Peanut butter & jelly/carrots & celery sticks/low fat milk, Peanut butter & jelly/carrots and celery sticks/chocolate milk, Peanut butter & jelly/carrots and celery sticks/apple juice %

Probably Probability What is probability? Probability is the mathematics of chance. It is the prediction of an outcome over a series of events ( things that happen/occur). They use phrases such as not likely, no way, and probably as in everyday speech. Are these really probability terms? We often hear and use statements of probability in our daily lives. Listen to weather forecasts when they wonder whether a game will be held or that the chance that school is canceled.

We choose an event, then the probability of that event is found by counting the number of times the event is true (favorable) and dividing by the total number of possible and equally likely outcomes. Probabilities are expressed as ratios, fractions, decimals, or percents. They are determined by considering the results of an experiment. Simple probability is when we conduct a one stage or one object experiment. P(event) = number of true outcomes total number of equally likely outcomes Probably Probability

Since it is equally likely get heads or tails, the probability (chance) of flipping a coin and having the outcome a tail is 50%. A Simple Experiment When you flip a coin, how many possible outcomes are there? The experiment The sample space The coin could land showing a head or a tail. The list of all possible outcomes is called the sample space. The sample space in this experiment is heads or tails (H,T). P(event) = number of true outcomes total number of equally likely outcomes 1 2 P (tail) = Probably Probability Chance What are the possible outcomes? 2

A bag contains 6 blue marbles, 6 red marbles, 3 green marbles, and 5 yellow marble. Probably Probability 1. What is the probability of drawing a red marble? 2. What are the chances of not drawing a red? Write the answer as a fraction, decimal, and a percent., This means there is a 70% chance of not drawing a red marble. There are 20 marbles in the bag and 6 out of the 20 are red marbles. P (red) = or 14 out of the 20 marbles are not red = or 0.7 of the marbles are not red. P (not red) = or 7 10, 0.7, 70%

The possibility that an event will happen ranges from impossible to certain on the probability line. If something has the same chance of happening as it has of not happening, it is said to be an equally likely (50 %). Probabilities are always written as fractions, decimals or percentages Probably Probability Chance

Probably Probability Chance Determine where each of the probabilities would appear on the probability line? a. The probability of drawing a red marble from a bag of red marbles? b. The probability of rolling a 5 on one roll of a die. c. The probability of getting both heads or both tails when flipping a coin twice. d. The probability of drawing a white marble from a bag of red marbles. Certain, % Unlikely, Equally likely to happen or not happen, Impossible, 1100% 50% 0% 0

Probably Probability Parker’s teacher uses a spinner to determine the order in which each group will make their math presentation. Use the spinner to find each probability in simplest terms. a. P (group 6) c. P (group 2 or 5) b. P (not group 6) d. P (not group 1, 3, or 4) e. P (group numbered less than 5) f. P (group 8) Discuss with a partner the answers and be prepared to share with the class.

Maybe-Maybe Not 1. The table shows the membership of the student council at Holmes Middle School. Suppose one student is to be selected randomly as the president. Find the probability of each event in simplest form. Guided Practice Girls30 Boys20 8th graders25 7 th graders15 6 th graders10 Student Council P (5 th grader) P (girl) P (boy) P (6 th or 8 th grader) P (not 7 th grader) P (boy or girl)1 0

Maybe-Maybe Not 2. Randomly choose one of the tiles 1-9. Find the favorable outcomes of each event. b. choosing 6 or 9 a. Choosing a number greater than 3c. Choosing not an odd number e. Choosing a odd number less than 5 d. Choosing a number divisible by 3 Guided Practice

Is This Fair? Independent Practice Can you decide if Game A or Game B is fair based on the probability of your game results? What is a fair game?

Is This Fair? Independent Practice Work in pairs or groups of four with two players on a team. Materials – Paper bag – 2 red and 3 blue cubes You will play two games – Game A uses 2 blue and 2 red cubes – Game B uses 3 blue cubes and 1 red cube

Is This Fair? Independent Practice Game Rules – One team is the red team and the other is the blue team – Red and blue cubes are placed in a bag – Teams take turns reaching in without looking, removing one cube, examining and recording its color, and replacing it. – A game will consist of 20 draws – The winner is the team that has drawn the most cubes matching the team color.

Is This Fair? Independent Practice Is Game A fair? Explain using probability. Is Game B fair? Explain using probability.