Conflict Prevention: policy objectives in development and aid agendas? Sakiko Fukuda-Parr CRISE 10 July, 2007

Conflict prevention as policy objective of aid Consensus policy objective is to reduce poverty and achieve MDGs through economic growth. Reflected in literature on aid effectiveness Reflected in allocation priorities Reflected in evaluation criteria Conflict prevention as a policy objective of aid As a means to achieving the MDGs As an end in itself/for human security

MDGs: 65 worst performing countries are vulnerable to conflict

Main points Not all development is good for preventing conflict Aid has important influence on policies that shape development patterns and on parties who shape conflict dynamics Social policies, economic policies and governance reforms can address socio-economic risk factors Review of PRSPs shows lack of attention to risk factors Adopting conflict prevention as aid policy objective would lead to different aid policies – allocation criteria, evaluation criteria, etc.

Development is not always good for peace and security Development can raise risks of conflict when it worsens: Horizontal inequalitites Environmental stress Overdependence on mineral resources Youth bulge, unemployment and exclusion Neighbourhood spillover state legitimacy Links: Economic policies, social policies, governance reforms

Development policy priorities: Nepal, Liberia, Guatemala Review of national poverty reduction strategies in 3 countries Dec 06 – March 07 Characteristics -unequal development and ethnic exclusion -Overdependence on natural resources (Liberia) -Environmental pressure/disputes over land and food insecurity -Weak state capacity and high degree of distrust of the state

State – citizen relations: common features in 3 countries from UN special rapporteurs High levels of impunity State security forces involved in crime. History of state sponsored violence Violence against women High levels of food insecurity Discrimination against indigenous and ethnic groups Low intensity conflicts, land disputes Lack of human rights protection and gross violations eg human trafficking for prostitution and body organs

Development policy: Nepal PRSP Nepal PRSP/5 year plan: -inadequate attention to employment creating growth -poverty reduction due to remittances not domestic growth -political restructuring emphasizes political representation of ‘excluded groups’ but not more equitable economic and social policies

Development policy: Liberia PRSP Liberia interim PRS (Jan 2007) -priority to restoring traditional sectors (rubber, timber, minerals) as engines of growth -inadequate attention to agriculture and rural livelihoods -lack of attention to distributional impacts of social infrastructure development -relief efforts concentrated in Monrovia

Development policy Guatemala 1996 Peace accord committments: budget analysis lowest expenditures for education & health in Central America lowest tax revenues in central America (9.5% GDP) social allocation ratio 6.1% Guatemala; 18.1% Costa Rica

Donor policies ‘Part of the problem’? – Nepal, Liberia Donors and government in denial of risks, ‘turn a blind eye’ Reactive rather than preventive DAC principles: Reactive not proactive – emphasize ‘Do no harm’ Disparate definitions of fragile states Fragile state category based on development outcomes not underlying conditions