Vicky Pryce Chief Economic Adviser and DG, Economics DTI Economics Teachers’ National Conference An Ever Changing Business World: Globalisation & the UK Government Policy Response

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Global growth Source: Consensus Economics and IMF % forecast World Growth UK US Asia Pacific Japan China (IMF) India (IMF) Euro Zone Germany France

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference World trade growth set to continue Source: IMF

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Global economic rebalancing Source: FCO Global Growth Model

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Globalisation not new…

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Globalisation now: what’s different? Highly populated emerging economies, esp. China and India – Developing countries’ share of world trade in goods up from 27% in 1990 to 35% in ICT revolution – Between 1970 and 1999, the cost of 1 Mhz of processing power fell from $7601 to 17 cents. Size and speed of capital markets – More than a $1 trillion traded daily on forex mkts Intra-industry trade – OECD: intra-industry trade estimated to account for 60%-70% of trade in sophisticated manufactured products. Growing services FDI – By 2002 service share of world FDI was 66%, up from 42% in 1988

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Structural shift in UK economy

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Shares of world exports of services

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Knowledge intensive services increase export share

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Foreign Ownership in the UK UK policy of opening UK markets to foreign business, and seeking to open international markets to UK firms Foreign owned businesses account for: –20% of UK jobs in production sectors and 9% of service sector jobs (excluding financial services) – 24% of UK value added, over the period 1990 to –40% of business R&D undertaken in the UK in 2004 Evidence suggests inward FDI can boost UK productivity

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Investment Stock abroad and in UK

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference FDI position in UK

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Industrial Policy Generally non discrimination between UK and foreign owned business Generally generic forms of support to all business irrespective of sector or ownership But presumption that inward investment can bring with it superior technology, management practice, of wider benefit Like all generalisations occasionally exceptions in practice

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Improving productivity is the key to improving competitiveness Source: ONS

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference UK performance on competitiveness The OECD ranks the UK 2nd on their product market regulation indicators (first in the G7); The World Bank currently ranks the UK 6th in terms of ease of doing business (and highest in Europe); The World Economic Forum and the Institute of Management Directors produce overall assessments of competitiveness, ranking the UK 10th and 20th respectively. UK competition authorities are highly regarded.

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference UK policy response CSR – globalisation as driver Recognition that needs cross government action- Permanent Secretaries work on globalisation Work streams include: climate change & energy; education & skills; science & innovation; migration; business; regulation; and health Many necessary policies already being pursued but more effort needed International Futures Project (IFP)

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Independent Reviews Independent reviews commissioned in line with work- streams identified by Perm Secs, including: – Leitch Review - identifies UK’s optimal skills mix in 2020 necessary to maximise economic growth, productivity and social justice in a globalised economy. –Gowers Review - UK’s intellectual property framework –Eddington Review - ‘Transport’s role in sustaining the UK’s productivity and competitiveness’ –Stern Review - Economics of Climate Change

Vicky Pryce Economics Teachers’ National Conference Priorities for the UK Competitiveness –Raise productivity – science & technology, innovation, skills, enterprise –Need to convince EU of need for adjustment. International architecture matters –Practical, enforceable market rules & regulation Adjustment not protectionism –Some people will be disadvantaged and will need assistance to adjust Responding to pressure on services