Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Frank Marks NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory & Cochair, Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research

2 Background Plan Overview Key Findings and Recommendations Summary / Next Step Overview

Background Impetus for this plan –Principal action item, agreed upon by the participants in the 58th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (March 2004) To develop comprehensive strategy for tropical cyclone research and development to guide interagency efforts over the next decade –Meeting of Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (ICMSSR) (November 2004) Strongly supported action (action item ) –Meeting of the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR) (December 2004) The senior interagency policy decision body advising OFCM, the IHC, and ICMSSR Actions discussed and supported Federal Coordinator formed Joint Action Group for Tropical Cyclone Research (JAG/TCR) (February 2005)

4 Background 48-hour forecasts since 1985 –Track:improved 3.5% per year on average –Intensity:improved 0.8% per year on average Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) (Atlantic Basin) Why More Improvements?

U.S. population: 53% live within 50 miles of coast –High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions Background Why More Improvements? Hurricane Rita Official Forecast Advisory #15 (maximum sustained winds: 120 mph) Hurricane Rita: 72 hrs to landfall Hurricane Rita Houston Evacuates 3 Million

6 Plan Overview Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers –Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center (TPC / NHC) –Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) –Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories –Track –Intensity –Structure –Sea state –Storm surge –Precipitation –Observations

7 Key Findings & Recommendations Tropical cyclone research –Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities –Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability) –Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences JAG/TCR recommends: –Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5 –Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program

8 Key Findings & Recommendations Significant gaps in meeting observation requirements; JAG/TCR advocates supporting / developing / acquiring capabilities in following areas: –Hurricane core observations from airborne Doppler radar –Tropospheric winds Ocean surface vector winds—for use by tropical cyclone forecasters and in tropical cyclone NWP systems (i.e., QuickSCAT replacement) Accurately measure the 3-D global wind field to optimally specify global initial conditions for NWP forecasts and much improved tropical cyclone track forecasts –Satellite altimetry NPOESS ALT instrument cancelled Above capabilities essential for meeting operational needs of the tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers

9 Key Findings & Recommendations Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling (i.e., computer models) and data assimilation –Increased skill in forecasting intensity and structure, sea state and storm surge, and precipitation is now on the horizon, much as improving track forecast skill was two decades or so ago –To meet operational needs, the Nation must be committed to supporting the key following areas: Advanced observations and observing strategies Advanced data assimilation technologies Advanced NWP models Investment in human and infrastructure resources –Development of next-generation operational hurricane forecast systems should be a National priority NOAA: NCEP GFS & HWRF Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System U.S. Navy: NOGAPS & COAMPS Tropical Cyclone System

10 Key Findings & Recommendations NWP modeling and data assimilation (continued) –Development efforts of next-generation hurricane forecast systems Should form basis for projects supporting hurricane research and collaboration among experts from: –Academia –International researchers –Private sector –Other Federal agencies –Sufficient human / infrastructure resources should be provided for: Development of advanced data assimilation & NWP modeling systems Operational NWP computing

11 JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions) Key Findings & Recommendations Rec. No. Recommendation Summary a Development of advanced data assimilation and NWP modeling systems; Transition of research to operations a Atmospheric- and ocean-related research, including analyses of field experiment data sets b Operational NWP computing (NCEP and FNMOC) 30 2aSocial science research TOTAL Fiscal Year Development of Advanced DA and NWP Models: (Chapter 4 & Appendices I-M) Improvements to global atmospheric models (GFS & NOGAPS) and high- resolution, regional models (HWRF & COAMPS); improvements in atmospheric and ocean data assimilation; implementing Earth System Modeling Framework (increase model component interoperability); improvements to ocean models (e.g., HYCOM; NCOM); implement / improve multi-grid WAVEWATCH III (MWW3) (movable/nested); dynamic storm surge model coupling to regional, high-resolution TC models; coupling of the Land Surface Model with regional, high resolution TC models; evaluate/verify wind and precipitation output. Transition of Research to Operations: Increased funding for: computing power for parallel model systems (test and evaluate) and testbeds (Joint Hurricane Testbed, Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, and Developmental Testbed Center)

Form new OFCM Working Group to: –Develop 10-year, multi-agency tropical cyclone research implementation plan, outlining specific actions / strategies to address research priorities –Draft NWP model development improvement plan that: Includes procedures to enhance the flow of relevant research focused on improvements to the operational NWP systems Enhances the conduit by which the academic community could be involved (e.g., through Joint Hurricane Testbed, Developmental Testbed Center) Accounts for having sufficient human and infrastructure resources for development work and transition of research to operations activities –Develop tropical cyclone observation improvement plan (e.g., observations from manned / unmanned aircraft, satellites, in-situ) Recommendation to ICMSSR

Summary / Next Step Interagency plan: –Presents comprehensive roadmap of activities to further improve the effectiveness of the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning service during the next decade and beyond –Resounding consensus from approximately 200 participants at recent Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (March 5-9, 2007) Plan is complemented by and consistent in many aspects with other concurrent hurricane research reports/plans –NOAA’s Science Advisory Board (SAB) Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group (HIRWG) –National Science Board’s Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering (HSE) Next Step: Form new OFCM Working Group –Seeking ICMSSR support

14 QUESTIONS?

15 Backup slides

U.S. population: 53% live within 50 miles of coast –High population density: local officials need ~72 hrs to implement evacuation actions Background Why More Improvements? Hurricane Rita “Best Track” Positions Hurricane Rita Houston Evacuates 3 Million

17 Background 48-hour forecasts since 1985 –Track:improved 3.5% per year on average –Intensity:improved 0.8% per year on average Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) Why More Improvements?

18 Background Complexity: Track vs. Intensity Hurricane track is influenced primarily by large-scale (> 1000 km) processes Hurricane intensity is influenced primarily by small-scale (< 10 km) processes, such as air-sea interaction Hurricane intensity is a difficult observational, scientific, computer modeling, and forecasting challenge Solution: –High-resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave model Inherent higher costs to solve intensity challenge –Making progress For the first time, the dynamical intensity guidance for the Atlantic basin in 2006 was better to the statistical guidance on average

19 Background 48-hour forecasts since 1985 –Track:improved 3.5% per year on average –Intensity:improved 0.8% per year on average Track Guidance Errors (n mi) (1985 – 2006) Intensity Guidance Errors (kt) (1985 – 2006) Why More Improvements?

20 Dr. Frank Marks OAR (NOAA/DOC) Ms. Robbie Hood MSFC (NASA) Dr. James Goerss NRL (Navy/DOD) Dr. Naomi Surgi NWS (NOAA/DOC) Colonel Mike Babcock HQ AF (AF/DOD) Dr. Ramesh Kakar Science Msn Directorate (NASA) Dr. Stephan Nelson Physical & Dynamic Met. (NSF) Mr. John Gambel Mitigation Division (FEMA/DHS) Dr. Jack Davis U.S. Army COE (Army/DOD) Dr. Chris Landsea NWS (NOAA/DOC) Mr. Jeffrey Hawkins NRL (Navy/DOD) Dr. Mark DeMaria NESDIS (NOAA/DOC) JAG/TCR Background

21 Dr. Ronald Ferek ONR (Navy/DOD) Lt Col Bob Falvey Director, JTWC Dr. James McFadden OMAO/AOC (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Scott Braun GSFC (NASA) Dr. Daniel Melendez NWS (NOAA/DOC) Mr. Scott Kiser NWS (NOAA/DOC) Mr. Mark Welshinger OFCM (NOAA/DOC) Dr. Russ Elsberry NPS (Navy/DOD) (SME) Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow (SME) JAG/TCR Background

22 Structure of the Strategic Research Plan Chapter 1 –Makes case for additional improvements –Introduces: Operational community to include: –Three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC –Operational NWP modeling centers: NCEP/EMC and Navy NRL/FNMOC R&D community Chapter 2 –Provides more in-depth review of tropical cyclone community –Reviews major previous work from which to build on Tropical Cyclone Community of Practice

23 Chapter 3 –Examines current capability and limitations of Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast and warning system End-to-end review of “system” –Includes data collection, data assimilation and NWP modeling, forecasting and warning, transition of research to operations, end user education, training, and outreach) Chapter 4 –Summarizes the operational needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers: TPC/NHC, CPHC, JTWC Table 4-1 –Presents planned capabilities to meet the operational needs End-to-end review Structure of the Strategic Research Plan

24 Chapter 5 –Presents research priorities to aid in meeting the needs of the operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers Chapter 6 –Key findings –Recommendations Structure of the Strategic Research Plan

25 JAG/TCR Estimated Additional Funding ($ Millions) Key Findings & Recommendations Rec. No. Recommendation Summary a Development of advanced data assimilation and NWP modeling systems; Transition of research to operations a Atmospheric- and ocean-related research, including analyses of field experiment data sets b Operational NWP computing (NCEP and FNMOC) 30 2aSocial science research TOTAL Fiscal Year