Finding CLEWs Modelling the interrelated effects of Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water (CLEW) A joint approach with FAO, IAEA, IIASA, KTH, SEI-US, and UN-DESA

Develop clear indicators and quantify physical interrelations between CLEW resources Develop tools to assist decision makers to verify the effects on other CLEW resources Test the tools and calibrate them to different environments / situations / setups through data collection and Case Studies CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 2/21 Aim of the CLEW approach Quantifying Indicators Modelling Relations Help Decisionmakers C E L W C LW E C,L,E,W C,L,E,W Decision

Mauritius – pioneer for testing of CLEW modelling tool Small island with clear boundaries Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80 % cultivated land area) Dependent on fuel imports for its energy requirement Highly vulnerable to climate change Data availability  Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission … CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 3/21

Aim of the case study The CLEW modelling framework was used to assess the energy, water and land-use system in the context of different scenarios in Mauritius: 1.Reduce gasoline imports by producing ethanol, displacing sugar exports 2. Considering different energy system alternatives and land use options (e.g. different crops) under uncertain future dryer climatic conditions (lower rainfall ) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 4/21

Methodology Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data ( ) -WEAP - water -LEAP - energy -AEZ - land production planning Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: -What are the changes in total costs? -What are the influences to the local water balance? -How changes the local energy balance? -What are local and externally induced GHG emissions? CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 5/21

Modeling Tools Used EnergyWaterLand Use Model MESSAGE (IAEA,IIASA) LEAP (SEI) OSeMOSYS (KTH) WEAP (SEI) AEZ (IIASA) „Scale of Operation“ From small island systems to large country analysis Local water systems based on geographical data Small scale to country analysis (flexible grid cells sizes) Input Demand (current / future, load curves), Existing + planned Power plants, Imports and exports, and resource availability, GHG emission factors Climatic data, Land cover data, Soil data and water avail., Water consumption, Desalination and hydropower Climatic data (plus projections), Land cover data, Soil data, Output & Results Future optimal energy mix under different conditions, Future GHG emissions Costs Water availability under different scenarios (CC and/or w. demand change) for ALL points in a modelled system Crop Map (most suitable crops per area) Crop Calendar Future water demand Fertilizer demand CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 6/21

Definition of all Catchement areas (60) Real Climatic Data (1996 – 2005):Rainfall, min & max temperature, humidity.... All main rivers & reservoirs plus stream flow data and reservoirs levels Modelling of existing canals / distribution systems Using GIS: land cover classes to calculate evapotranspiration Water Demand data (urban and agricultural) according to national statistics and population density Result: Water availabilty for each point in the system CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 7/21

Results – Scenario B (40% rainfall reduction): Reservoir levels CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 8/21

Input Data Supply: -All existing and planned power plants (capacities and plant factors) -Hydropower Plants and monthly production -Potential renewable energy targets -Energy production from bagasse -Oil and Coal imports -In the Scenarios: 1st & 2nd generation from biomass plus bioethanol production Demand: -from national statistics and official projections, assumptions for pumping water and desalination -Demand for ethanol production from sugar cane (1st and 2nd gen.) -Energy needs for fertilzer production CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 9/21

CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 10/21

AEZ - The Land-Use Model... Input: -Climatic Data -Detailed soil map and data from soil profils -Slopes and marginal land -GIS data for landcover -Irrigated areas Output: -Grid map of Mauritius show optimal crops, potential water use, and potential yield -Crop calendar CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 11/21

Maps used for AEZ...

Modeling Tools Used EnergyWaterLand Use AEZ Water availabilty for each point in the system (on the island) under different conditions / szenarios Grid map of Mauritius showing optimal crops, potential water use, and potential yield including a „Crop calendar“ CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 13/21

Diagram of CLEW interconnections …

Case Study Mauritius – Model Interconnections: CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 15/21

MODELLING RESULTS WHEN CHANGING THE LOCAL SUGAR PRODUCTION TO ETHANOL TO BE USED IN THE LOCAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM … Less Resource ImportsLess local GHG emission Potentially increased Income Gasoline imports are reduced as ethanol replaces gasoline for the transport fleet. Small increases in coal and oil imports occur as previously available bagasse for electricity generation is now used for ethanol production. GHGs are saved through ethanol powered local transport – slightly more emissions are produced through increased electricity production with fossil fuels. Reduced gasoline imports are illustrated here as negative costs. These reduced costs are higher then the lost revenue through ”lost” sugar export. Baseline [1000 GJ] [ton CO 2 eq] [1000 US$ REAL 2005 ] OIL COAL GASOLINE external OIL+COAL external ELECTR. GENERATION TRANS- PORT emissions ”lost” SUGAR EXPORT Reduced GASOLINE IMPORTS

Case Study Mauritius – Results: Questions:  How changes the local energy balance in case local biofuel production under different price and technology scenarios?  What are local and externally induced GHG emissions (taking into account fossil fuel savings and land use changes)?  What are the changes in total costs?  What are the influences to the local water balance? Some Findings:  Increasing water intensity in the agriculture will result in substantially increased energy demand (pumping).  Current trends of decreased rainfall may make other crops interesting for the island.  Induced external land use changes somewhere else have the largest effect on the overall GHG balance (substitution of sugar cane) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 17/21

Futur Work and Potential Applications A)Further development of the CLEW approach: Developing a simple „user interface“ and defining data requirements and capabilities for the tool. (Further Case Studies, with a potentially excellent applicability in SIDS) B)Further development of OSeMOSYS: Designing a tool which is open source, transparent and applicable for developing countries Include CLEW (or multi resource assessment) options into OSeMOSYS Improve Modelling of intermittencies and fluctuating RE energy sources (for RE based island systems) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 18/21

Local Energy use (e.g. energy for farming, production of local biofuels or hydropower) Foreign induced energy use (imports and exports, fossil fuel extraction) Crop yields and related energy balance Carbon content and storage in plants and soil Input of water, fertilizer, energy during growth period and harvesting Water for irrigation Water for hydropower Water for cooling powerplants Water used for biofuel production Water use during resource extraction Local GHG emissions (incl. fossil fuels, farming, fertilizer use or use of biofuels) Foreign induced GHG emissions (especially: induced land-use changes) Energy Climate The CLEW and its Partners LandUse Water CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 19/21

Thank You Mark Howells Sebastian Hermann Manuel Welsch Royal Institute of Technology – Stockholm – Sweden CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling 20/21