I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Headquarters U.S. Air Force As of:1 Col Harold A. Elkins Chief, Weather Plans Division NSWP Assessment OFCM Silver Spring, MD 7 Jul 05 XOO-W NSWP Assessment

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:2 AFW/AFSWP Links AFW Contributing Efforts AFW Future Capability Way Ahead Summary Overview

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:3 AFW Linkages to NSWP Goals National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, 2nd Edition, July 2000 <= Collection <= Analysis <= Forecasting <= Tailoring, Dissemination, & Integration

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:4 AFW Contributing Efforts Cumulative 21% of AFW resources since 1998 dedicated to space weather Observation:  Global space weather data collection network--5 solar radio and optical observatories: Italy, Sagamore Hill, Holloman, Hawaii, Australia  Ionospheric sounding network on four continents  Energetic particle data from military satellites  Global network directly measures ionospheric scintillation

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:5 AFW Contributing Efforts Data Processing and Analysis:  Ionospheric data available to DoD and DoC  “Official” 3-hour (a p ) averaged geomagnetic index  Auroral boundary and radar clutter  HF point-to-point and global propagation  Radar correction factors  UHF SATCOM scintillation/point-to-point SATCOM link analysis  Single-frequency GPS error estimates  Hourly ionospheric activity indexes  Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:6 AFW Contributing Efforts Forecasting:  “Official” 3-hour averaged (a p ) geomagnetic index  24-hour HF point-to-point and 6-hour global HF propagation  1-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast; 6-hour scintillation outlook  24-hour UHF SATCOM scintillation point-to-point outlook  1-hour Single-frequency GPS error estimates Space weather products and services:  Ionospheric Effects Characterization (IEC) Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)  Web accessible index, analysis and forecast products  User-specific tailored products  Advisory, watch and warning notification tied into users’ operation centers  Established ingest, dissemination and communication architectures  Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:7 AFW Contributing Efforts Numerical Modeling:  AFWA Space Weather Operations Center (Space WOC) runs the following models: Technology Transition:  AFWA established dedicated space weather technology transition cell; permits streamlined conduit to transition high priority technology into AFW operations  Transitioning GAIM—IOC FY07  UPOS improved geomagnetic activity index (K p ) algorithm successfully transitioned IACTNPRISMWBMODPPSPIM CRRESELECRRESPROCRRESRADVOACAP MSM

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:8 Overall Current Capability Assessment Domains CAFTDMT2 Solar/ Interplanetary GYY/RRG R MagnetosphereY/R RRG R IonosphereYYRYGY/RG Neutral Atmosphere YYRRYRY C = CollectA = AnalyzeF = ForecastT = Tailor D = DisseminateM = ModelingT2 = Tech Transition

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:9 AFW Future Capability Observation:  Civil-Military Enterprise: global network of ionospheric collectors  More numerous energetic particle data from military satellites (CEASE)  Global network and satellite beacon (C/NOFS) directly measure ionospheric scintillation

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:10 AFW Future Capability Data Processing and Analysis:  Ionospheric data assimilation of many sources  Improved a p accuracy (UPOS K p algorithm)  Auroral boundary and radar clutter  HF point-to-point and global propagation  Radar correction factors  UHF SATCOM scintillation  Single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates  Hourly ionospheric activity indexes  Environmental assessment of satellite anomalies

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:11 Civil-Military Enterprise From this: 34 Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations To this: Civil-Military Enterprise of Several hundred Scintillation, TEC and EDP stations

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:12 AFW Future Capability Forecasting:  Improved a p geomagnetic index  Physics-based 24-hour HF point-to-point and HF propagation forecasts  Physics-based UHF SATCOM scintillation forecast  Physics-based single- and dual-frequency GPS error estimates  Magnetospheric/radiation belt forecasting  Geosynchronous energetic electron forecasts Space weather products and services:  Tailored, specific space weather information integrated directly into operators’ Command and Control and Situational Awareness systems  Integrated, net-centric dissemination and communication architectures  Web-based user feedback mechanisms via AFWA web pages

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:13 AFW Future Capability Numerical Modeling:  GAIM IOC FY07  Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM)  Relativistic Electron Forecast Model (REFM) Technology Transition  AFWA transition of MSFM and REFM underway

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:14 Overall Future Capability Projection Domains CAFTDMT2 Solar/ Interplanetary R/GR/Y RG R MagnetosphereY/R YRGYG IonosphereGGYYGYG Neutral Atmosphere YYRRYY/RR C = CollectA = AnalyzeF = ForecastT = Tailor D = DisseminateM = ModelingT2 = Tech Transition

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:15 Way Ahead Follow IEC ICD through the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS) process Work the Civil-Military Enterprise with NOAA to expand access to ground-based ionospheric sensor data Integrate space weather into war fighter command and control, and situational awareness architectures Operationalize current research (i.e. CISM, CCMC, UPOS, etc.) as it matures, and as resources allow, to improve capability Continue partnerships with other government agencies to advance NSWP goals and enhance national space weather capability

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:16 Summary AFW: a significant contributor to NSWP goals Activities underway continue to progress NSWP goals Identified all-service ionospheric requirements to DoD through JCIDS process Goal: secure funding/resources to improve space weather Multi-agency partnerships crucial to continued advancement of space weather capabilities

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of:17 Questions?