Single Outcome Agreements and Purpose Targets: measuring progress Euan Carmichael Office of the Chief Economic Adviser 20 th March 2009

The Government Economic Strategy “to focus the Government and public services on creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth ”

Government Economic Strategy Increase productivity and competitiveness Stimulate economic participation Stimulate population growth Increased GDP growth Ensure that growth is shared and sustainable Solidarity: reduce inequalities across all individuals Cohesion: reduce the disparity between the regions of Scotland Sustainability: enhance the environment and reduce emissions

The Purpose targets 1. Economic Growth: by 2011, raise our GDP growth rate to the UK level by 2017, match rate of small independent EU countries 2. Productivity: by 2017, rank in the top quartile of OECD countries 3. Participation: by 2017, maintain position as the top performing UK nation for labour market participation, and close gap with top 5 OECD countries 4. Population: by 2017, match average EU-15 population growth, and increase healthy life expectancy 5. Solidarity: by 2017, increase overall income and the share of income earned by the lowest 30% as a group 6. Cohesion: by 2017, narrow the gap in participation between our best/worst performing regions 7. Sustainability: by 2011, reduce emissions by 2050, reduce emissions by 80%

The National Performance Framework

How does the Purpose link to SOAs? Delivery of the Purpose targets will reflect the aggregation of performance across local authorities Improved performance will therefore be determined, to an extent, by the strategic policy focus at the local level However, data used to measure performance nationally is not always available at the local authority level?

Measuring Progress? Where is the data used to measure progress nationally available at the local authority level? –Population growth –Participation and Cohesion (employment rates) –Sustainability (emissions?) Where is data not availability at the local authority level? –GDP growth –Productivity –Solidarity –Healthy Life Expectancy (not regularly available)

Proxy indicators for Productivity? What changes would we expect to see in an area that was becoming more productive and growing more rapidly (GDP growth increasing)? Higher skilled workers? –Increase in the percentage of graduates in workforce –Decrease in the proportion of workers with no qualifications –Proportion of the workforce undertaking training? Increasing average wages? –Can be measured through the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) Higher number of business start-ups? –VAT Registrations –Local information from Scottish Enterprise

Setting targets? Current trend performance? Projections of future change? What is required at the national level (to achieve each Purpose target)? Divergence from the national average? –Is the focus on maintaining current position, or closing the gap? What is realistic given current economic conditions?