Assessment of Dissemination Practice for Economic and Financial Statistics United Nations Statistics Division/Department of Economic and Social Affairs International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends, May, Ottawa, Canada

Consultations on the Financial and Economic Crisis High Level Forum the Long-term Development the SNA, Washington D.C., NovemberHigh Level Forum the Long-term Development the SNA, Washington D.C., November Official Statistics and the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, New York, 22 FebruaryOfficial Statistics and the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis, New York, 22 February High Level Forum on Globalization and Global Crisis: the role of Official Statistics, New York, 23 FebruaryHigh Level Forum on Globalization and Global Crisis: the role of Official Statistics, New York, 23 February 40th Session of the Statistical Commission40th Session of the Statistical Commission

Findings from consultations Dissemination of high frequency statisticsDissemination of high frequency statistics availability, timeliness and comparabilityavailability, timeliness and comparability Communication (integrating analytical, policy and statistical frameworks –statistics and commentaries)Communication (integrating analytical, policy and statistical frameworks –statistics and commentaries) Institutional environmentInstitutional environment user consultation (policy departments, academia, corporate sector)user consultation (policy departments, academia, corporate sector) collaboration between Statistical Offices and Central Banks, Ministry of Finance, etc.collaboration between Statistical Offices and Central Banks, Ministry of Finance, etc.

Stylized Facts of the Financial and Economic Crisis Size (global – affecting developed, emerging and developing countries)Size (global – affecting developed, emerging and developing countries) common data template of core set of high frequency statistics based on inventory of available high frequency statisticscommon data template of core set of high frequency statistics based on inventory of available high frequency statistics Speed (one year cycle, )Speed (one year cycle, ) accelerated dissemination where possibleaccelerated dissemination where possible Transmission mechanism (through products, new units, etc.)Transmission mechanism (through products, new units, etc.) closing data gaps – Sectoral and cross border exposures to risk and contagionclosing data gaps – Sectoral and cross border exposures to risk and contagion

Scope of data template for economic and financial statistics High frequency statistics and their accelerated first estimatesHigh frequency statistics and their accelerated first estimates Accelerated production and release of a high frequency statistics as a first estimate early after the end of the reference periodAccelerated production and release of a high frequency statistics as a first estimate early after the end of the reference period Theoretical sound, based on normative standardsTheoretical sound, based on normative standards Time series availableTime series available Direct observations (no forecasting)Direct observations (no forecasting) Predictive power to detect turning pointsPredictive power to detect turning points Signal vulnerabilities and exposuresSignal vulnerabilities and exposures Link between the real and financial economyLink between the real and financial economy

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness Macroeconomic growth and stabilityMacroeconomic growth and stability Sectoral vulnerabilities and developmentsSectoral vulnerabilities and developments Market conditionsMarket conditions

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) – Annex I Availability by 12 Data CategoriesAvailability by 12 Data Categories Macroeconomic growth and stability (4)Macroeconomic growth and stability (4) National accounts,National accounts, Production and turnoverProduction and turnover PricesPrices LaborLabor

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments (5)Sectoral vulnerabilities and developments (5) External sectorExternal sector Financial sectorFinancial sector Government sectorGovernment sector Household sectorHousehold sector Non-financial sector Non-financial sector

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) Market conditions (2)Market conditions (2) Financial marketFinancial market Real estate marketReal estate market Economic Sentiments (1)Economic Sentiments (1) Consumer and business confidence, composite business cycle indicators (LCI, CCI, LCI)Consumer and business confidence, composite business cycle indicators (LCI, CCI, LCI)

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) Set 1: Quarterly National Accounts Quarterly National Accounts: First GDP estimate Quarterly National Accounts: GDP release with more breakdowns (as relevant by expenditures, production by economic activities and income components Quarterly National Accounts: Sector accounts (as relevant, household, corporations, general government sectors)

Assessment of Availability and Timeliness (cont) For each of the 12 data categories Core set of high frequency statisticsCore set of high frequency statistics Supplementary set of high frequency statistics, if anySupplementary set of high frequency statistics, if any Periodicity and timeliness (recommended/ encouraged)Periodicity and timeliness (recommended/ encouraged)

Elements of assessment of the dissemination dimensions 1. Availability (since when: month/year)1. Availability (since when: month/year) 2. Periodicity (monthly, quarterly)2. Periodicity (monthly, quarterly) 3. Timeliness (T + days, number of days after the reference period T)3. Timeliness (T + days, number of days after the reference period T) 4. Coverage (% of total)4. Coverage (% of total) 5. Target audience (general public, experimental (for research only), internal administrative use only, international (rating) agencies only5. Target audience (general public, experimental (for research only), internal administrative use only, international (rating) agencies only

Elements of assessment of the dissemination dimensions (cont.) 6. Advance release calendar (available, not available)6. Advance release calendar (available, not available) 7. Meta data (available, not available)7. Meta data (available, not available) 8. Adjustments (seasonal adjustment, calendar-day adjustment)8. Adjustments (seasonal adjustment, calendar-day adjustment) 9. Compiling agency (national statistical institute, central bank, ministry of finance, other)9. Compiling agency (national statistical institute, central bank, ministry of finance, other) 10. Improvements (improved business register and/or sample design new basic statistics, new extrapolation and related techniques, integration of high frequency statistics, IT innovations, institutional collaboration, other)10. Improvements (improved business register and/or sample design new basic statistics, new extrapolation and related techniques, integration of high frequency statistics, IT innovations, institutional collaboration, other)

Expected outcome from break-out sessions Data template of core (and supplementary) set of high frequency statistics by 12 data categories based on the assessment of:Data template of core (and supplementary) set of high frequency statistics by 12 data categories based on the assessment of: a current inventory of country dissemination practices of high frequency statistics and their first estimates a current inventory of country dissemination practices of high frequency statistics and their first estimates identification of data gapsidentification of data gaps agreed elements of assessmentagreed elements of assessment

Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) Proposal for actions and initiatives in the near term:Proposal for actions and initiatives in the near term: Follow-up seminar based on agreed data template of core set of high frequency statistics and the accelerated first estimatesFollow-up seminar based on agreed data template of core set of high frequency statistics and the accelerated first estimates ComparabilityComparability Policy and analytical application of data templatePolicy and analytical application of data template CommunicationCommunication

Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) Proposal for actions and initiatives in the short termProposal for actions and initiatives in the short term at national level - introducing a common national dissemination platform, harmonizing the meta data descriptions, aligning the release calendars and revision practices, sharing IT software tools, etc.; andat national level - introducing a common national dissemination platform, harmonizing the meta data descriptions, aligning the release calendars and revision practices, sharing IT software tools, etc.; and at international level - undertaking a global assessment on high frequency statistics based on agreed data template, tracking dissemination practices, etc.)at international level - undertaking a global assessment on high frequency statistics based on agreed data template, tracking dissemination practices, etc.)

Expected outcome from breakout session (cont) Proposals for actions and initiatives in the medium termProposals for actions and initiatives in the medium term at national level - a coordinated implementation program based on analysis of strengths and weaknesses.at national level - a coordinated implementation program based on analysis of strengths and weaknesses. at international level – a coordinated implementation program and common research agendaat international level – a coordinated implementation program and common research agenda