Mechanisms and Predictability of Decadal Fluctuations in Atlantic-European Climate An R&D project funded by the European Union under Framework 5 Rowan Sutton Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling University of Reading

Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Thanks to: Martin Visbeck & Heidi Cullen

Economic Impacts of Climate Variability

Climate Risk and Strategic Planning  Much of the work on climate change scenarios has focused on timescales of years.  But for many businesses the longest timescales considered in strategic planning are much shorter: 1-30 years.  There is thus a clear need for the best possible information about potential climate scenarios, and their relative probabilities, for these decadal time horizons. This is the need that the PREDICATE project is addressing

Northern European temperatures observations forecasts Uncertainty on decadal timescales in current climate forecasts

 Changing external forcings, e.g.:  Rising levels of greenhouse gases  Variations in solar output  Internal variability of the climate system  In the atmosphere alone  In the atmosphere-ocean system  In other components of the climate system, e.g. the biosphere. The Causes of Decadal Climate Variations

 To assess the predictability of decadal fluctuations in Atlantic-European  To improve understanding and simulation of mechanisms via which ocean-atmosphere interactions cause decadal climate fluctuations  To improve the European capability for forecasting decadal fluctuations in Atlantic-European climate by developing forecasting systems  To work with targeted user groups to assess the potential benefits from future decadal forecasts PREDICATE Objectives

PREDICATE Partners

Partners 1.CGAM - Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Reading, UK 2.UKMO - The Met. Office, Bracknell, UK 3.MPI - Max-Planck Institut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany 4.LODYC - Laboratoire d’Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Paris, France 5.NRSC - Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Research Centre, Bergen, Norway 6.ING - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Bologna, Italy 7.DMI - Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark 8.CERFACS - European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, Toulouse, France

Work Packages WP1: Mechanisms and predictability of decadal fluctuations in the atmosphere WP2: Mechanisms of decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic ocean WP3: Decadal climate predictability and prediction WP4: Interaction with user community