Presidential Elections Do Now Questions: What does it mean to be a “red” state? What does it mean to be a “blue” state? Where do these names come from?
Electoral Map - 2000
Popular Vote vs. Electoral Vote The number of individual votes cast Electoral Vote Votes cast by the states Number of votes varies How are they related? Popular vote determines how a state uses its electoral votes
Electoral College – Counting Votes Each state gets a certain number of votes to cast 1 per Senator 1 per Congressman Exception: Washington D.C. Has neither Senators nor Congressmen, but they get 3 Electoral Votes Example: New Jersey New Jersey sends 13 Congressmen to the House of Representatives and 2 Senators to the Senate. How many Electoral Votes does it get?
Electoral College – Counting Votes What is the fewest number of Electoral Votes a state can have? What state has the most? California – 55 Texas – 34 New York - 31
“Winner Take All” System Electoral Votes are cast based on a “winner take all” system The candidate that receives the highest popular vote in a state receives all of the state's electoral vote No “partial” votes No splitting the votes between multiple candidates Example #1: NJ votes 56% for Gore and 41% for Bush. Of the 15 electoral votes, how many does Gore get? Example #2: NH votes 48% for Bush and 47% for Gore. Of the 4 electoral votes, how many does Gore get?
Is the Electoral College Fair? Arguments against... Minority party Battleground states are ignored Popular vote vs electoral vote Third party candidates lose out Voters in small states have “too much” voice Arguments for ... Small states have a voice Third party candidates don't “dilute” the vote Simple maps on election night
Reforming the Electoral College Suggested reform in CA Electoral votes are split Popular vote is broken down by Congressional district Candidate wins one electoral vote for each Congressional district he wins Candidate with the most overall vote gets the 2 “Senator” votes
Reforming the Electoral College Another possibility... Split the electoral votes based on the proportion of the popular vote Use regular rounding rules (0.5+ is rounded up) Example: California votes 54% for Gore and 42% for Bush. Of 55 electoral votes, how many does Bush get?
Reforming: Examining the Problem According to the Constitution... Each state can decide how to use its electoral votes Change will likely happen over time, state by state What happens if only some states change their system, and some keep the “winner take all” system? Does one political party have more of an incentive to reform a state than the other?
Reforming: Examining the Problem To address these issues... We will re-calculate the 2000 Presidential election We will use the simple proportion rule Each candidate gets a percentage of the electoral votes equal to his percentage of the popular vote (rounded to a whole number) Groups will examine one of three possibilities All states switch to the new rule Only Democratic states switch to the new rule Only Republican states switch to the new rule