Results used for AMS meeting Water fraction was not always in first column of RAMS input, so some of the simulated changes were due to unanticipated changes.

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Presentation transcript:

Results used for AMS meeting Water fraction was not always in first column of RAMS input, so some of the simulated changes were due to unanticipated changes in open water extent, not urbanization.

2010 landcover SimulationObserved Need to fix problems with observed temperature record – known NCDC anomalies

2010 landcover SimulationObserved Note: Color scales are different

2010 / No Urban

2030 / 2010

New Results land cover fixed to have water class in first column

2010 landcover Old Sim.New Sim.Observed New results are ~ 2.5 degrees warmer. Why? Better initial conditions for northern domain?

Note: Color scale is different for observed 2010 landcover Old Sim.New Sim.Observed

New Ratios: 2030 / 2010

2030 / 2010 Precipitation Old New Changes are less heterogeneous, because fewer land cover changes were simulated (previous simulations would have assumed changes in open water class.) Seems reasonable.

2030 / 2010 Temperature Old versus New Patterns less intense, also much less cooling than we saw previously. Seems reasonable

New Ratios: 2010 / No Urban

2010/no urban Precipitation Old versus New Same general character, although some reversal in signs. Heterogeneity about the same. Seems okay.

2010/no urban Temperature Old versus New Patterns less intense, warming at Chicago much less, but more realistic continuous warming along southwest lake MI between Chicago and Milwaukee.