OBSERVATIONSMODELINGPROJECT

SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model) BOM (Bergen Ocean Model) WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) ~1,9x1,9° 4-daily NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Navigation Land Map Ship observations Coastal HMS Own expeditions Oceanography SMS (Surface Water Modelling System)Supercomputer “Lomonosov” Moscow State University

Temperature (°C), Salinity (‰) and Currents (m/c) in Caspian Sea. August. Z=0 m Temperature (°C, November), Salinity (‰, May) and Currents (m/c, February) in Black Sea. Z=0 m

Bathymetry of Caspian Sea 5x5 km Spectral wave model SWAN Friction JONSWAPNonlinear quadruplet wave interactionsTriad wave-wave interactionsBreakingDiffraction NCEP-NCAR ~1,9x1,9; 4-daily;

Seasonal variability of storms with different significant wave height (m) Interannual variability of storm waves with significant wave height exceeding 2 m Number of storms Average duration, h Average area, km 2

The largest calculated parameters of storm waves Significant wave height of a possible 1 time in 100 years Significant wave height, m Period, s Wavelength, m Generalized characteristic of the wave regime are regime distributions. Analysis of measurement data showed that one-dimensional distribution of wave heights and periods are described by a logarithmically normal distribution : where μ - mathematical expectation, σ - the standard of the wave height logarithms. This distribution can be expressed in another way: where s=1/σ. To calculate the characteristics of extreme wave was the initial distribution method (IDM, Initial Distribution Method), in which to evaluate the highest wave height is taken quintile h(p) of regime height distribution F (h) for a given probability p:

Depth, m Wind (m/c) hSignificant wave height (m) h Wave period, sWave length, m

The model results for Black Sea Surface pressure, hPa (isobars are shown by solid lines), wind speed, m/ s (gradient fill), wind direction (arrows) Observations The wind and significant wave height. Blue Bay. Gelendzhik Significant wave height, m Comparison of observed data with data of numerical simulation Modeling of wind waves in the Blue Bay Unstructured grid The spatial field of wind-generated waves. At the open boundary are specified height, direction and wave period, calculated in the nearest bay to the point on the grid for the entire sea

Unstructured grid Example. Wind – SW, 20 m/s, 2 days Sea level, m Flow trace

Grid cells and nodes Black line - the boundary of the computational domain; blue line – shoreline; red points – sea; blue points - land Computational grid Storm surge December 1968