“THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON AVIATION SAFETY” CHRISTOS PETROU EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

DIFFICULTIES IN ANSWERING THE QUESTION Complexity of air transport sector Difficulty in identifying clear responsibilities if there is a safety failure Usually failures are due to a sequence of events and to actions or inactions of more than one players. There are exogenous factors unrelated to aviation ( wars, conflicts,e.t.c.).

OUTLINE OF PRESENANATION define what is safety outline the current and future situation as regards traffic and accidents outline the main factors contributing to safety identify the main players responsible for safety assess the impact of economic crisis on each one of these players

HOW DO WE DEFINE FAILURE OF SAFETY Only when an accident or incident happens? NO! When the international rules and regulations are not implemented fully ? YES! When there are gaps in regulation and supervision? YES!

GLOBAL AVIATION STATISTICS 2014 Number of flights: 35 m. Passengers: 3.2 billions Traffic expected to rise by 50% in m.persons employed 4.4% of global GDP 21 fatal accidents 990 fatalities 50-year average : reduction by 50%

MAIN FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO SAFETY Human factors Technology Training Procedures Regulation and supervision Regional and international cooperation

RESPONSIBILITY FOR SAFETY Service providers Air navigation providers Airports Airlines Aircraft manufacturers Manufacturers of ATC systems

……RESPONSIBILITY FOR SAFETY Regulators and Supervisors ICAO, EASA AND EUROCONTROL at international and regional level –rules and regulations National Authorities at national level – national laws Facilitators Trade Organisations ( IATA, ACI, CANSO e.t.c.) Lobbying Organsisations ( IFATCA, IFALPA, NGOs e;t;c)

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) Regulated and supervised by NSA in accordance with EU legislation Recovery of costs through the route charges system ANSPs still in the Civil Service potentially my suffer budgetary cuts as other state services HENCE : Very unlikely that economic crisis may affect their safety procedures

…..IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY Airlines Regulated by national authorities, ICAO and EASA Follow IATA guidelines Nevertheless operate in a very competitive environment and costs are important There are minimum and maximum standards, according to the safety culture of each company HENCE: Potentially economic crisis may have some impact on the airlines safety standards depending on their culture and the effectiveness of the national supervisory authorities

…. IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY Airports Regulated and supervised by national authorities Since they are mostly private entities,costs are of great importance HENCE : Potentially economic crisis may have an impact on airport safety, depending on how effective are the supervisory national authorities.

…IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY Aircraft and ATC system manufacturers Very competitive industry Safety is an important feature of their promotion HENCE : Very unlikely that economic crisis has any impact on safety

…..IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY National Regulators In most countries this function belongs to the civil service National authorities are supervised by ICAO and EASA Mainly financed by State budget. Some income from airlines HENCE: Economic crisis and budget cuts may affect the effectiveness of the national authorities in supervising airlines and airports as regards safety

…..THE IMAPCT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS ON SAFETY Regulators at International and National level During economic crisis International and Regional Organisations may need to reduce costs However it is unlikely that this will have any impact on their supervisory functions as regards safety HENCE: Economic crisis does not have any impact on safety

CONCLUSION Aviation is a heavily regulated and supervised sector. There is a strong competition between the various player in the sector. Some parts of the sector are self financed regardless of costs. There exists a general safety culture by all players, since it involves billions of human lives and the repercussions of failure of safety are catastrophic.

…CONCLUSION The impact of economic crisis on aviation safety is very marginal. “Never take safety for granted!”