1. Aviation Safety in a Competitive Environment February 2015 Ola Blomqvist Chairman The Swedish Association of Licensed Aircraft Engineers Svensk Flygteknikerförening

2. Highlights  Dysfunctional airline market  Engineering and maintenance  Regulatory compliance, oversight and standardization  Examples of the effect of aggressive competition in combination with lack of effective oversight and standardization  The way forward Svensk Flygteknikerförening

3. Since 1970 air travel demand, measured by Revenue Passenger Kilometers flown (RPKs) has risen 10-fold, compared to a 3-4-fold expansion of the world economy. Air cargo demand, both reflecting and facilitating the globalization of business supply chains and economies generally, rose 14-fold. Source: IATA Economics Briefing No10, 2013 Some figures Svensk Flygteknikerförening

4. From 1970, after adjusting for general price inflation, air transport services have also more than halved the prices charged to customers. Source: IATA Economics Briefing No10, 2013 A Dysfunctional market For decades net profit for the airline industry has been lower than the cost of capital. Despite that fact, more seat capacity is constantly added to the market. Svensk Flygteknikerförening Some figures

5. the failure of a key system during aircraft operation is more likely to lead to catastrophic results than in most other transport sectors  Close link between standards of maintenance and safety  ICAO minimum standards of airworthiness and operational safety  EU (EASA), FAA and National regulations Aircraft engineering and maintenance – a cornerstone in aviation safety Svensk Flygteknikerförening

6. Current situation  Airlines and maintanance organisations under pressure  Cost cutting  Virtual airlines and confusing company structures  Aviation authorities without control SFF view:  Ineffective regulatory oversight increase the risks of air travel  Is this happening already? Svensk Flygteknikerförening

7. Ref N.Y Times and AAIU, Ireland, Accident investigation report http://www.aaiu.ie/node/621

8. Accidents are: “the effect of a systematic migration of organizational behavior toward accidents under the influence of pressure towards cost-effectiveness in an aggressive, competitive environment.” (Rasmussen & Svedung, 2000, p. 14) ” Svensk Flygteknikerförening

9. Contracting and sub-contracting of work – a huge risk factor  Airline operation with several different companies contracted and sub-contraced  Ticket office  Lease of aircrafts  Wet lease of aircrafts  Operator/airline  Technical Maintenance  Contracted temporary staff  Often authorities and stake holders from two, three or four different nations inolved Authorities at least one step behind!

10. Organisational loopholes ?? Trying to get to grips with a ”no frills” airline maintenance

11. Safety and regulatory oversight ?? Trying to get to grips with a ”no frills” airline maintenance

12. Another example – A ticking time bomb in a failing system Avies AS  Regulatory responsibility in Estonia  Operation in Sweden  Swedish Transport Administration contract Avies after public procurement  Certification and oversight is under the control of Estonia  Proof of a failing authority  Several serious incidents without proper corrective actions from the airline.  Actions from EASA and the EC? Svensk Flygteknikerförening

13. –Loss of power on both engines after Take-Off –Runway excursions –Landing to the right of the runway – No report to the NAA, no technical inspection of the aircraft –Pilots are told not to enter remarks in the tech-log –Lack of response to safety recommendations

15. Alarm bells should be ringing when: Statistics about numbers of fatal accidents is the only thing the industry point at when safety is discussed The airline industry constantly lobby for less regulation and oversight The airline industry push for less trained and less educated personell in safety critical posistions (responsibility for airworthiness) Svensk Flygteknikerförening

16. The way forward In a global and extremely competitive environment the following factors are paramount for safety: Strong safety regulations Enforcement of safety regulations Protected status for safety professionals like Licensed Aircraft Engineers Svensk Flygteknikerförening

17. For More Information Contact: Ola Blomqvist Ordförande Svensk Flygteknikerförening inom Saco-förbundet SRAT +46(0)70 574 4353 ola.blomqvist@flygtekniker.se www.flygtekniker.se Svensk Flygteknikerförening