1 FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODS Dr. Geurts Lecture.

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Presentation transcript:

1 FORECASTING MODELS AND METHODS Dr. Geurts Lecture

2 New Products u 1. Buyer intention surveys: u Definitely will buy u Highly possible u As likely as unlikely to buy u highly doubtful to buy u Definitely will not buy u 2. Test markets u 3. Flow through or economic study u 4. Diffusion models = rate of adoption imitators/innovators u 5. Product comparable

3 New Products- con’t u 6. Judgmental models = expert guess, Delphi u 7. New product models like dumps: u Durability u Number of potential Users u Number of Major competitors u Number of Potential customers u Proportion made aware [ MARKET Share ] u 8. Conjoint analysis = determine value of product attributes an estimate market share. u 9. Trend/fashion forecasts = Innovators

4 Existing Product Sales u 10. Business activity = capacity being used u 11. Time series = past data patterns u a. exponential smoothing u b. Box-Jenkins [ARIMA] u 12. Response models = Sales and marketing mix variables u 13. Econometric models = Using economic indicators u 14. Salesmen composite = Summation of salesman forecast for her territory u 15. Logistic regression = combination of marketing mix variables and time series forecasts.

5 Other Forecasting Methods u 15. Technological u 16. Combining forecasts u 17. Partitioned data u 18. Regression u 19. Interest rates u 20. Economic Growth

6 u Role of Data u Bad u Past u Other forecasts u Uses of Forecasts u Budgets u Production quantities u Inventory control u Planning u Bank loans u Identify effect of problems or promotions. If the forecasting has been accurate and the company runs a promotion. The company can measure the effects of the promotion as the difference between forecast and actual.