Peak Oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory? 98 oil producers 98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory? Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak Oil – what’s it like? terminal decline terminal decline demand destruction demand destruction examples: examples: –1990s: North Korea –1990s: Cuba –2000: UK fuel crisis –Now: Poor countries

Climate Change – the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today Dominant myths of today –Things are getting better –Economic growth is good –We must keep shopping –Technology will solve all our problems –There is no alternative –You can’t stop progress –Living standards are rising –Humans are selfish and greedy by nature –The market will solve it –We’re all doomed…

What’s stopping us? (2) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinking Short term vs long term thinking –rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian Belief in authority figures Belief in authority figures –electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose –obedient children survive Sunk cost, or investment in the present Sunk cost, or investment in the present –“it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job depends on him not believing it” Optimism Optimism –an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

Peak Oil – happening now (if you’re poor) Asia Asia –Nepal –Pakistan –Bangladesh –Sri Lanka –Philippines –China –India –Vietnam Africa Africa –Uganda –Zimbabwe –Ghana –Nigeria –Senegal –Kenya –Gambia –Philippines Americas Americas –Argentina –Nicaragua –Chile –Costa Rica –Dominican Republic Middle East Middle East –Iraq –Iran

Peak Oil – who’s peaked (1)? Top % of all oil extracted worldwide PeakedNot yet peaked 57% of world27% of world Russia, United States, Mexico, China, Norway, Canada, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Oman Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Kazakhstan

Climate Change – weather extremes

Climate Change – moral issue or personal interest? Some regions will be more affected than others: Some regions will be more affected than others: –The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem changes) –Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops) –Small islands (coastal erosion, inundation) –Asian mega-deltas (flooding from sea and rivers) –coastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea water Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: –Coral reefs, marine shell organisms –Tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions –20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinction Your town? Your town?

Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

Peak or Plateau? Existing fields decline – 4.5% = Peak in 2015 Existing fields decline – 4.5% = Peak in 2015

Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local currencies PEAK OIL PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

A ‘grass roots’ movement Established June 2008 transport, energy, food, social support, textiles, health & wellbeing, waste & consumerism, art & performance.

Film

Food

Plant and seed swaps Fruit tree planting : Community Fairfield Schools & Burbage

Food CSA – Community Supported Agriculture Allotments Landshare Forest Gardening Bee Keeping Seed Swapping & Plant stalls Community Orchard Guerilla gardening Education

Transport Car pooling Buxton Bikes Monsal Trail/Rail Enquiry

Energy Insulation seminar Curtain lining workshops Renewable Energy Seminar

Education Schools work – PSHE “Transition Tales” with ‘Funny Wonders’ puppet workshop Tree-planting - Fairfield

“Visioning” Creating positive mental goals to work towards! Visioning workshops Public consulting Talks

What can the BCA do?  OPTION 1 – DO NOTHING Wait & react to events. NOT AN OPTION! -BCA already committed to ‘enhancing the environmental & social benefits’ arising from its assets -And has clear environmental policy statement.

What can the BCA do? OPTION 2 – Identify potential Risks of Peak Oil & Climate Change to BCA: - Pest & disease - Fire - Increase in extreme weather events – wind, drought - Invasive species - Pressure for land – population movement? Food? - Fuelwood foraging DRAW UP PROTECTIVE MEASURES

What can the BCA do? OPTION 3 – BE PROACTIVE  Aim to be part of community’s resilience-building  “Vision” - Look forward to what we can do now to assist the next generation

A Vision for BCA? Environmental Change =inevitable need to be adaptable and prepared. Social change - 1.reduced fossil fuels -> demand for affordable fuel : incr. Woodburners 2.High Food prices -> demand for land/local produce 3.Demand for Building materials -> timber

A Vision for BCA? 1. Fuel : potential risk to woods from uncontrolled firewood cutting/foraging Currently a high % of sycamore. Most UK woodland not ‘Natural’ : highly managed ?PLANT NEW WOODS? ? Coppicing – ecological benefits & attaches economic value to woodlands.

A Vision for BCA? 2.Food : i.Forest Gardens? ii.Foraging opportunities? – currants & berries? hazelnuts? Mushrooms? iii.Allotments? iv. …?

What Next? We believe the BCA can play an important role in the future of Buxton – big changes ahead - need a long-term strategy - need a sense of URGENCY Discussion: end this meeting with an Action ! (strategy? Proposal to board? Membership discussion?)