Maj Greg Mayer, USAF Maj Nichole Scott, USAF LT Mate Aerandir, USN Capt Kevin Canning, USMC 2 nd Lt Kellan Bethke, USAF

Secure state control/influence over all domestic energy resources and exports Leverage energy dominance to control Russia’s near abroad and to restrain EU and NATO influence in Russian affairs Compete with China for control over energy resources and influence in Central Asia Locate, secure, and exploit new sources of hydrocarbons (especially in the Arctic) Increase control over downstream energy markets and infrastructure (Europe and Central Asia) Russia’s Multivector Energy Policy

Territorial disputes in the Arctic could require the United States to become diplomatically or militarily involved through its alliances. In Europe, the United States has enduring commitments to protect allies, maintain collective defense, and support the economic and institutional development of newly emerging democracies. Competition between Russia and China for influence and access to Central Asian resources could exacerbate regional instability. Collusive practices between the Russian state and energy sector have effectively closed Russia to American energy companies and have created incentives for inefficient and environmentally harmful energy extraction practices. U.S. National Interests

Europe State control of natural gas exports Monopolize gas acquisition Control European markets Political Influence Arctic Land-based reserves projected to begin to deplete around % government budget comes from export of hydrocarbons Territory disputes Increasing military presence to defend against encroachment Central Asia Competition with China for access to energy reserves Heavy investment in the region to discourage competition Political Sphere of Influence – Great Power China Diversify oil supply via ESPO in Asia Do not be a raw material appendage to China Continue as major benefactor of Central Asia Domestic Tremendous endowment of hydrocarbon reserves Autocratic trends in governance connected with Putin presidency Energy export tied to government revenues, Russian GDP High incentives for government and energy industry collusion Europe State control of natural gas exports Monopolize gas acquisition Control European markets Political Influence Central Asia Competition with China for access to energy reserves Heavy investment in the region to discourage competition Political Sphere of Influence – Great Power China Diversify oil supply via ESPO in Asia Do not be a raw material appendage to China Continue as major benefactor of Central Asia Domestic Tremendous endowment of hydrocarbon reserves Autocratic trends in governance connected with Putin presidency Energy export tied to government revenues, Russian GDP High incentives for government and energy industry collusion Arctic Land-based reserves projected to begin to deplete around % government budget comes from export of hydrocarbons Territory disputes Increasing military presence to defend against encroachment

Accede to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas in order to support allies’ Arctic claims. Advocate an Arctic role for NATO. Begin construction of new icebreakers, ice-capable naval, patrol vessels. Conduct regular combined-joint Arctic exercises to practice operating in extreme environments and work out sound collective defense doctrine. Policy Recommendations - Arctic

Promote economic and legal reform within Russia to promote a more hospitable business environment for foreign investment and economic diversification. Expansion of North American energy exports and alternative energy programs could increase downward pressure on world oil pricing and undercut Russia’s profit margins, forcing economizing measures. Policy Recommendations - Internal

Promote diversification of non-Russian natural gas supply to Europe Approve the exportation of U.S. LNG to Europe. Support efforts to construct a southern gas corridor to supply Europe with natural gas from Central Asia. Export U.S. technology and expertise to increase domestic supply Policy Recommendations - Europe

Improve local infrastructures to increase production capability and export opportunities Trans-Caspian pipeline and TAPI pipeline Improving regional security improves investor confidence Policy Recommendations – Central Asia

Encourage greater participation in global energy market Export LNG to China Export Coal to China Share shale technology with China? (this might be a bridge too far) Policy Recommendations – China

Russia’s energy policy is detrimental to the global market economy Work with allies to contain Russia Conclusion

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