Atmospheric Research Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Climate change impacts and adaptation: An international perspective Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology

Advertisements

CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5

Emissions From The Oceans To The Atmosphere Deposition From The Atmosphere To The Oceans And The Interactions Between Them Tim Jickells Laboratory for.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Martin Parry and Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chairs.

What is the point of this session? To use the UK’s experience to give ideas about creating and using climate change scenarios in other countries and situations.

TUC, 21st October 2013 Climate change – the scientific evidence and its implications Why climate change matters to us all Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief.

Master Narratives & Global Climate Change Charlie Vars Dave Bella Court Smith IPCC January 29, 2013.

Nidal Salim, Walter Wildi Institute F.-A. Forel, University of Geneva, Switzerland Impact of global climate change on water resources in the Israeli, Jordanian.

EPA’s Global Change Research Program: A View from EPA’s Office of Air & Radiation Terry J. Keating, Ph.D. OAR/Office of Policy Analysis & Review 9/26/2005.

A stocks and flows approach An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change: 1. the principal domains Society and Economy Greenhouse.

IIASA A. Grübler, 2002 IPCC SRES 4 qualitative storylines 6 IA model frameworks 40 Scenarios 6 Illustrative Scenarios representative of uncertainty range.

Uncertainty and Climate Change Dealing with uncertainty in climate change impacts Daniel J. Vimont Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department Center for.

27 June 2007 Synonyms in Science Examples from Earth Systems Science Nathan Bindoff ACECRC, IASOS, CSIRO MAR University of Tasmania TPAC.

BIOGEOSPHERIC CHANGE RESPONSE OF ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION TO ALTERED FORCING © 2007 T. Kittel Clarice Bassi - Anavilhanas.

 Country Context and status of National Communication  National climate change priorities, socio-economic scenarios and the driving forces  Climate.

Regional / Local Climate Change Needs and Requirements: The WGII Perspective.

Martin Manning and Greg Bodeker National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Presented at ‘Expert meeting on assessment of contributions to climate.

Climate change and its impact on health in the Pacific Basin Alistair Woodward School of Population Health University of Auckland.

Climate Change – 1: Background

Kim M. The Science of Climate Change.

Using Earth System Models to provide policy-relevant information (Couples therapy for the uneasy marriage between science and policy)‏ Gavin Schmidt NASA.

Working with Uncertainty Population, technology, production, consumption Emissions Atmospheric concentrations Radiative forcing Socio-economic impacts.

Atmospheric Research Climate Hazards & Risk Assessment Roger N. Jones AIACC Kickoff Meeting Nairobi February

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer PIARC XXIII World Road Congress Folie 1 Latest Results on Climate Change and Implications for Road Transport Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer.

Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development: A Framework for Integration John Robinson CLA, WGIII July 18, 2001.

Science themes: 1.Improved understanding of the carbon cycle. 2.Constraints and feedbacks imposed by water. 3.Nutrient cycling and coupling with carbon.

Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I and Non-Annex I to the Historical.

World and Asia climate change: Assessment results by IPCC and Japanese supercomputer model predictions LA of AR4 WG1 Chapter 5: Observations: Oceanic Climate.

Figures and selected tables from the Summary for Policymakers and Technical Summary of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment.

Climate Modeling Jamie Anderson May Monitoring tells us how the current climate has/is changing Climate Monitoring vs Climate Modeling Modeling.

IWRM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change Dealing with uncertainties.

Vulnerability of the Socio-economic Worlds of the IPCC Scenarios to Sea Level Rise & Water Stress  Saskia Werners Alterra, Wageningen University & Research.

Global Warming - 1 An Assessment The balance of the evidence... PowerPoint 97 PowerPoint 97 To download: Shift LeftClick Please respect copyright on this.

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007:

JTH COP6bis/SBSTA Briefing on WGI contribution Bonn: Tuesday 17 July 2001 The Scientific Basis Sir John Houghton Overview of WGI findings,

IPCC WG1 AR5: Key Findings Relevant to Future Air Quality Fiona M. O’Connor, Atmospheric Composition & Climate Team, Met Office Hadley Centre.

Role of Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) in climate change policy analysis The Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM) An ABARE-CSIRO joint initiative.

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Climate Models (from IPCC WG-I, Chapter 10) Projected Future Changes Primary Source: IPCC WG-I Chapter 10 - Global.

The IPCC’s SRES scenarios EmissionsNarratives Concentrations Climate changeImpacts.

Global Warming Projections for the IPCC SAR and TAR using simple models Sarah Raper.

The links to global problems Presentation at the 25 th anniversary special event of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution “Past successes.

Extracting valuable information from a multimodel ensemble Similarly, number of RCMs are used to generate fine scales features from GCM coarse resolution.

Science Advisory Board Public Session 1 1 Peter Schultz, Ph.D. Associate Director for Science Integration Climate Change Science Program Office CCSP Update.

E.A. Mathez, 2009, Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future, Columbia University Press. Source: Solomon et al., 2007 Chapter.

The Impacts of Climate Change: An Overview MS&E 290 Public Policy Analysis March 2, 2004.

The evolution of climate modeling Kevin Hennessy on behalf of CSIRO & the Bureau of Meteorology Tuesday 30 th September 2003 Canberra Short course & Climate.

Atmospheric Research Characterising Climate Risks Breakout Workshop Presentation Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research.

Modelling the climate system and climate change PRECIS Workshop Tanzania Meteorological Agency, 29 th June – 3 rd July 2015.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure – Gulf Coast Study CCSP Product 4.7.

SRES Approach to Scenario Formation Linda O. Mearns NCAR/ICTP GECAFS Meeting Reading, UK August 2003.

Integrated Assessment and IPCC: Links between climate change and sub-global environmental issues presentation at Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling,

1 UIUC ATMOS 397G Biogeochemical Cycles and Global Change Lecture 14: Methane and CO Don Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois,

Air pollution and climate change Short lived climate forcers Øystein Hov.

Climate change impacts on water resources in the southeastern U.S. – Can we adapt? Peter Caldwell USDA Forest Service, Eastern Forest Environmental Threat.

Picture: Bill Chapman. From the 1998 ARCSS Science Plan, the first theme was identified as follows: 1. How will the Arctic climate change over the next.

Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options Nathan Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA,

Global Climate Change and my career Your Name. Global climate change … is unequivocal, is almost certainly caused mostly by us, is already causing significant.

Future Air Quality in Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios: Relationships Between Economic Wellbeing and Air Quality J. Jason West Steven J.

Metrics and MODIS Diane Wickland December, Biology/Biogeochemistry/Ecosystems/Carbon Science Questions: How are global ecosystems changing? (Question.

Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition.

Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties Report from the NRC Committee on Radiative Forcing of Climate commissioned.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE TEACHERS’ CONFERENCE, Borki Molo, Poland, 7-10 February 2007 The warming trend for the.

Oliver Elison Timm ATM 306 Fall 2016

Model Summary Fred Lauer

MAGICC/SCENGEN Model for Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change/A Regional Climate SCENario GENerator.

Climate Change and Agriculture

The Human Influence on Climate: How much is known, What’s in store for us? Loretta Mickley Harvard University CO2 concentrations, Mauna Loa.

Research needs: vulnerability, impacts, adaptation and mitigation

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Presentation transcript:

Atmospheric Research Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research

Atmospheric Research Acknowledgments Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme

Atmospheric Research Chapter 13 WG I Climate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Distinguishes between Climate change scenarios ( representation of change from baseline ) Climate scenarios ( representation of future climate )

Atmospheric Research Chapter 13 WG I Climate Scenario Development Mearns and Hulme et al. Key development of methods, for: Representing uncertainty High resolution information Variability and extreme events

Atmospheric Research Chain of dependencies in global change scenarios Socioeconomic assumptions Interactions and feedbacks Emissions scenarios Concentrations projections Radiative forcing projections Climate projections Sea level projections Regional scenarios Impacts Source: Mearns et al., 2001

Atmospheric Research Typology of extreme climate events

Atmospheric Research Chapter 3 WG II Developing and Applying Scenarios Carter and La Rovere Major developments Features non-climatic scenarios Characterises SRES scenarios Recommends consistency between scenarios Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As for Ch. 13)

Atmospheric Research Types of scenarios Climate Socioeconomic Land-use and Land-cover Change Environmental Sea-level rise

Atmospheric Research Structure of Chapter 3

Atmospheric Research Socioeconomic scenarios Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability Pre-climate change Determine climate change impacts Post-adaptation vulnerability

Atmospheric Research Land-use and land-cover scenarios Food security Carbon cycling Current and future land-use Integrated assessment models most appropriate for developing LUCC scenarios

Atmospheric Research Environmental scenarios Atmospheric carbon dioxide Tropospheric ozone Acidifying compounds UV radiation Water resources Marine pollution

Atmospheric Research Sea-level rise scenarios Need long baseline records Need to estimate relative sea level rather than absolute Regional variations unknown Variability important Amenable to risk assessment

Atmospheric Research Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000) The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

Atmospheric Research Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001

Atmospheric Research Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001 Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts