Selecting a President: The Presidential Nomination and Election Process

 Stage 1: Caucuses & Primaries The Battle for the Party Faithful  Stage 2: Nominating Conventions “Glorified Infomercials?”  Stage 3: General Election The Fight for the Center  Stage 4: Electoral College Power to the People? Presidential Selection

Why Primaries and Caucases? Turn and Talk We have watched parts of the Democratic and Republican debates. Why then, if we have these televised debates, do we feel the need to have statewide primaries and caucuses?

Announcing candidacy & organizing Candidates officially enter the “race” to the Presidency Campaign is organized for upcoming events: –Network of workers/volunteers (phone calls, publicity, planners, etc.) –Accounts created for future fundraising abcnews.go.com

Money Raised to Date…. Hillary Rodham Clinton raised $29.9 million for her campaign in the third quarter, just ahead of Bernie Sanders, who raised $26.2 million. Total Raised by Campaigns in the Third Quarter (in Millions) 1 Hillary Clinton $ Bernie Sanders Ben Carson Jeb Bush Ted Cruz 12.2

Pre-primary fundraising, campaigning, and debating Candidates begin fundraising for the upcoming spring primary/caucus season Campaigning for the party primary/caucus is in full swing during this time Debates will be held between the main contenders washingtonpost.com

Stage 1: Caucuses  Closed meeting of party members in each state  Delegates select the party’s choice for presidential candidate  Currently used in only six states Barrack Obama campaigns in Iowa

Stage 1: Caucuses Hilary Clinton (D) and Rudy Guilliani (R) campaigning in Iowa The Iowa Caucus is the first primary/caucus - Date for the Iowa Caucus is February 1, 2016 Considering Iowa is a relatively small state, why are the Iowa caucuses so important??

Stage 1: Primaries  Primary Season - January - June  Who Decides? - State party organizations for the most part decide the rules for the primaries in a particular state.  Types of Primaries: Closed Primaries Open Primaries Presidential Primary Elections - special elections in which voters select candidates to be the party’s nominee for president in the general election. Mitt Romney campaigning in New Hampshire

Closed Primary Voters may vote in a party's primary only if they are registered members of that party

Open Primary A registered voter may vote in any party primary regardless of his or her own party affiliation.

Methods of Selecting Presidential Delegates by State Which is most popular? Why??

2016 Open & Closed Primaries Virginia has a “modified open primary”

Iowa Caucus First major electoral event in the election process. Candidates campaign in Iowa months before the caucus –Ads, paid staffers, and publicity is centered around the many precincts in Iowa The winner of the Iowa caucus has served as an indication of the person who will win their parties nomination Nationaljournal.c om

New Hampshire Primary First primary of election year February 9, 2016 Focused upon by candidates –Media attention –Early success in contests / must perform well to continue in race nhhistory.org

Other Important Dates February 20 – Nevada Caucases February 27 – South Carolina Primary March 1 – June 14 – All other states Pennsylvania Specifically – Tuesday April 26 nhhistory.org

Importance of Early Caucuses and Primaries These states are small but play a big role They do not decide who IS the nominee for each party They decide who ISN’T the nominee. They significantly narrow the field of candidates Iowa New Hampshire Nevada South Carolina

SUPER TUESDAY In 2008, states realized that the sooner they go, the more say they have in who gets nominated. Both the Democrat and Republican Parties the earliest date for which a state can have its primary. Many states had their primaries on this date

SUPER TUESDAY This became known as SUPER TUESDAY. Most experts predicted that this date would decide the nominee early. This was not the case –2008: Hilary vs. Obama –2012: Romney vs. Santorum

Stage 2: Presidential Nominating Conventions Barack and Michelle Obama at the 2004 Democratic National Convention

Nominating Conventions An assembly held by political parties every four years Usually held in late summer before the general election in November George W. and Laura Bush at the 2000 Republican Convention

Nominating Conventions Democratic Convention 2016 Week of July 25 Philadelphia, PA Republican Convention 2016 July Cleveland, OH George W. and Laura Bush at the 2000 Republican Convention

Purposes of Nominating Conventions 1980 Republican National Convention in Detroit, Michigan 1.At the convention the party adopts a platform to unify support behind common goals. 2.Delegates to the convention elect that party’s nominees for President and Vice-president.

What is a Party Platform? Platform - a statement of principles and objectives a political party and a candidate support Plank - Individual topics in a party ’ s platform (ex: abortion, war in Iraq)

Who are Delegates? Delegate - A voting representative to the party nominating convention

Delegate Selection Proportional System  Primary system used by the Democratic Party  Candidates get a % of delegates based on the popular vote Winner-take-all System  System used in most Republican primaries  The winner of the popular vote in that state receives all that state ’ s delegates  Similar to electoral college

Democratic Party Rules: Two Types of Delegates Pledged Delegates v. Superdelegates

Pledged Delegates Pledged delegates count during the 2008 Democratic primaries  Pledged delegates are required to vote at the convention based on the popular vote in their state  (they have to listen to the people)

 Members of the Democratic Party establishment who serve as unpledged (??) delegates at the party convention  They are free to vote for any candidate at the convention (don ’ t have to listen to the popular vote in their state) Superdelegates

By John Trever, The Albuquerque Journal 03/30/2008

Convention Speeches: The Keynote Address  The speech given at the convention that embodies that party ’ s core message  Extremely important event – can propel a politicians career  Do you know who gave the 2012 Keynote Address at the Democratic Convention???

Mayor Julian Castro, San Antonio Texas – Hispanic – Youngest mayor of top 50 cities

Governor Chris Christie – New Jersey Governor of New Jersey Republican Convention Keynote Speaker

The Acceptance Address  Given at the final day of the convention - winning candidate formally accepts the party ’ s nomination for president  Huge media event - Acceptance Address is always televised by the major networks 1960 presidential candidates John F. Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon deliver their Acceptance Addresses at their party’s national convention

Critics say that party nominating conventions have become nothing more than infomercials Democratic National Convention in New York City What do you think?

Stage 3: General Election Candidates ACTIVELY campaign by… (Basically do ANYTHING that they think will get them more voters)

Raise money In the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama raised over $600 million dollars – more than any other candidate ever—most of it through small, single online donations

Run ads (TV, radio, mail, internet etc)

Participate in Debates

Hold rallies and give speeches

Fall Campaign After convention to Election Day Candidates travel from state to state (speaking, rallies fundraising, etc.) Focus on swing states (states that are contested) Run TV ads to increase name recognition, spread ideas, “mud-sling” Debates held against opponent (media attention, show “likeability”, appear presidential, etc.) thesoundsofhistory.com

Campaign Finance The McCain-Feingold Act (2002) sought to limit campaign corruption by limiting the amount of money that could be donated by individuals and organizations. Citizen’s United Decision (2010) struck down key limitations in McCain-Feingold allowing corporations and organizations to spend and donate unlimited money.

Campaign Finance At the beginning of the 2012 election season, many experts estimated that a candidate would need to raise $1 billion in order to run a successful campaign for the presidency. So far: Romney: $771.7 million Obama: $834.7 million

General Election Held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November –November 2-8 Eligible citizens of the U.S. cast votes for the candidate of their choice for President. Popular vote winner in each state helps determine the electors who will cast the official vote in the Electoral College Time.com

 Stage 4: Electoral College  We’ll talk about it in more detail

1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 47 The Electoral College

True or False? 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 48 The candidate with the most votes is elected president. Answer: Not necessarily. Ask Al Gore.

The 2000 Election 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 49 The Popular Vote Al Gore50,996,039 George W. Bush 50,456,141 The Electoral Vote George W. Bush271 Al Gore267

Historical Background 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 50 The framers of the Constitution disagreed on how to elect a president –Congressional selection –direct popular election. The electoral college was a compromise –combining features of both approaches.

The Electoral College and Federalism 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 51 The electoral college also reflects the federal nature of the Constitution –Ensures that the states have a role in selecting the president.

State Electoral Votes 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 52 Each state is entitled to as many electoral votes as the sum of its representation –U.S. House of Representatives –U.S. House of Senate Ohio: 18 House members plus 2 senators = 20 electoral votes –Total: 435 House members 100 senators 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral votes

Who are the Electors? 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 53 Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. Ohio selects 20 electors to cast the state’s 20 electoral votes. Framers anticipated that electors would be state leaders who would exercise good judgment. Today, party leaders select electors who are typically long-time party activists. Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates.

Delegate Votes Divided 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 54 Each state determines the manner of selection All but two states use a winner-take-all delegates statewide election system Nebraska Maine Everyone else If Candidate A gets the most votes in a state, Candidate A gets the all of the delegates.

Voters and Electors 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 55 Therefore, –An Ohioan who votes for Obama is really voting for a elector pledged to cast the state’s electoral votes for Obama. –Remember: In 2000, Bush won all of Florida’s 25 electoral votes because the final official vote tally showed him ahead of Gore by about 600 votes.

The Real Election 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 56 In December of election year –The electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast ballots for president and vice president. In January –Congress comes into session –They open the ballots received from each state –They announce the official outcome.

What if no one receives a majority? 1/5/ To win, a candidate needs a majority, 270 electoral votes. If no candidate has a majority the House of Representatives selects the president from among the three presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. If this happens, each state has one vote. Happened only once! 1824 Congress chose John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson and Henry Clay. The Senate selects the vice president from the top two vice- presidential candidates.

Popular Vote v. the Electoral Vote 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 58 In a close race, the popular vote winner may not win the electoral college. –One candidate may win states by lopsided margins while the other wins states by narrow margins. Electoral vote winners who lost the popular vote –Bush over Gore in 2000 –Benjamin Harrison over Grover Cleveland in 1888 –Rutherford B. Hayes over Samuel Tilden in 1876

Criticisms of the Electoral College 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 59 The popular vote winner may lose the presidency. Electors may vote for persons other than their party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates. If no candidate receives a majority, Congress will pick the president and vice president.

Proposals for Reform 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 60 Eliminate electors but still count electoral votes. Choose the president by direct popular election.

Review Question 1/5/2016Political Science Module Developed by PQE 61 North Carolina has 13 U.S. representatives. How many electoral votes does the state have?

Electoral College December – After General Election Distributes votes to states based upon # of senators & representatives State’s popular vote winner earns all Electoral votes of state Must earn majority (270) of Electoral votes to win election Map: 2012 distribution Used originally to “check” voters (uneducated & uniformed) census.gov