An Issued Challenge  Goal: Provide resources for a global population that will quadruple in 100 years  Done: 1900 – 2000  Consequences: Depends on your point of view about progress versus quality of life versus human condition

Some Consequences Rapid mining/depletion of accessible high energy content medium  conventional oil Rapid mining/depletion of accessible high energy content medium  conventional oil Serious worldwide inequities in resource distribution and wealth due to rate of growth Serious worldwide inequities in resource distribution and wealth due to rate of growth Two world wars and some other minor skirmishes, invasions, annexations,etc Two world wars and some other minor skirmishes, invasions, annexations,etc Possible climate change or increased climate volatility Possible climate change or increased climate volatility

Peak Oil or Plateau Oil

Where Does US Oil Come From?

Business As Usual Scenario Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 (possible to do) Population stabilizes to billion by the year 2100 (possible to do) Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current US use is about 1.5 TW years) Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years (Current US use is about 1.5 TW years) Is there any solution to this? Is there any solution to this?

Ultimately Recoverable Resource Conventional Oil/Gas Unconventional Oil Coal Methane Clathrates Tar Sands Uranium Ore Geothermal Steam - conventional 1000 TWy (1/4 need) ,000 30,000 2,000 4,000

Coal Remains a Real Problem 51% of all electricity in the US is coal-fired and coal production in the US is up China is currently adding 1 new 1000 MW coal fired steam plant every 10 days to its energy infrastructure. Coal production in India is also significantly up.

China Could be the Tipping Point Increased Methane emissions from rice cultivation Chinese private vehicle fleet is doubling every 3 years. Coal fired electricity to increase Combined effects – China will equal the US in greenhouse gas emission per year by the year

Non Fossil Fuel Resources Breeder Reactors Hot Dry Rock Sunlight Wind Energy Global Biomass Fusion 2,000,000 TWy 1,000,000 9,000, ,000 10,000 Essentially unlimited

There is no Real Energy Barrier or Limit Alternatives to Fossil Fuels are available if we just build the infrastructure for harvesting and delivery of those resources. It can be done (i.e. we did it last century) However, we do have real problems to overcome

We may be running out of … Cheap Oil Livable Environment/Fresh Water Money (e.g. capital investments) for better options Time for a transition out of the fossil fuel economy into something else Leadership to do what is required

Terrawatt Production Schemes – 30 years to develop we invest now Wind turbines in the Aleutian Islands (total resource is 50 TW) – use Hydrogen as a proxy for a transmission line Wind turbines in the Aleutian Islands (total resource is 50 TW) – use Hydrogen as a proxy for a transmission line 100 x 100 sq km PV array in North Africa 100 x 100 sq km PV array in North Africa Gulf Stream Turbines Gulf Stream Turbines OTEC in equatorial waters OTEC in equatorial waters Ultimately, hot dry rock wells in the American west Ultimately, hot dry rock wells in the American west BUSINESS AS USUAL: Russian and Iran become our main importers. But will we be outbid by China?