The Swedish Energy Foresight

Energy supply and use in Sweden 2001, TWh

Use of electricity in Sweden 1970–2001

Electricity production in Sweden 1970–2001

Energy supplies to district heating 1970–2001

Swedish imports of crude oil and petroleum products, 1972–2001 by country of origin (million tonnes, net)

Not just another energy study Energy is a resource for sustainable development – not a problem Focus on the reduction of the negative effects of energy use – not on the use of energy International developments are important Energy does not shape society – energy systems are shaped by society Transport, industry and buildings – integrated parts in the energy system

Sustainable development – not just environment Source: UN Global Compact

A scenario approach Scenarios are tools for building different conceivable future energy systems – not forecasts of the future. Scenarios should provide provoking, credible and relevant visions, but not necessarily the most likely or desirable ones. Scenarios should take into consideration the deep currents driving the development of energy systems – not merely individual events.

Organization System foresight panel User foresight panel Structure foresight panel Long-term foresight panel Expert teams on different energy sources

Deliverables A summary report Panel reports Factual reports A process

Energy demand Major energy savings in buildings – but more buildings to heat or cool More efficient office and household appliances – but more appliances in need of electricity Spread of integrated transport solutions and better logistics – but an increased demand of transport Improved efficiency in industrial processes – but an annual increase in production

Two scenarios Climate in focus Climate - one factor among others

Time Energy Solar energy Hydrogen Natural gas Clean coal New nuclear Oil & coal Nuclear Natural gas, clean coal and new nuclear - a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society

Climate in focus – characteristics Internationally harmonized measures to reduce emissions More efficient economic measures R&D and new infrastructures Emphasis on energy efficiency Higher energy prices

Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for the scenario Climate in focus? Hydro as today Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) and hydrogen fuel cells have a considerable and growing market share Existing nuclear reactors have been partly replaced after 60 years of operation. A new generation of nuclear technology offers improved safety and a bridge to a solar and hydrogen society. A majority of vehicles have fuel cells with hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon sequestration and from renewable energy. Heating with bio, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings)

Climate a factor among others – characteristics Limited harmonisation Focus on the local environment rather than on the global Emphasis on local production of heat and electricity Voluntary market-oriented actions from industry

Energy supply in Sweden 2050 for Climate - one factor among others? Hydro as today Solar-based electricity other than hydro (e.g. bio, wind, solar cells) has a limited but growing market share Existing nuclear reactors phased out after 40 years of operation and replaced by electricity from natural gas. A majority of vehicles use fossil fuels, liquid and natural gas fuels from natural gas where available. Only zero emission cars are allowed in central parts of urban areas. Heating using bio, natural gas, heat pumps and electricity (low energy buildings).

Priority questions in the two scenarios The level and composition of energy demand? Replacement of the existing nuclear reactors? Replacement/reduction of oil-derived fuels for transport?

Industry in 2020

Industry profile Knowledge content (”price per kilo”) Export share %

Sweden:

Process development, Swedish pulp mill

Energy use in Industry

Solar collectors Insulation and windows Efficient heating and ventilation systems Individual metering of heat and water Result is 40% reduction of heating requirements. Solar collectors Insulation and windows Efficient ventilation. Heat exchanger 85% efficiency. Heating from electric appliances Result is 50% reduction of energy use without additional building costs. Energy in buildings 2020

Energy use one-family houses

Energy use in the building sector

Transportation in hybrid vehicles in urban areas

Transportation in availability of fuel cell vehicles

Efficiency from well to tank (%) Vehicle efficiency (%) Overall efficiency (%) Gasoline vehicles 8816 HVs (gasoline) 8830 FCVs 58~50 future FCHV ~70~60 Efficiency of Well to Wheel Source: Toyota trial calculations

Energy use in the Transport sector

Total use of energy in Sweden Decreased use of energy in the Residental sector will compensate for increased use in Industry and Transport

Nuclear reactors years Oskarshamn 1 Oskarshamn 2 Oskarshamn 3 Ringhals 1 Ringhals 2 Ringhals 3 Ringhals 4 Forsmark 1 Forsmark 2 Forsmark 3 Barsebäck

Production cost new electricity 2002 Blueparts of the bars show costs after future add-ons (taxes and emission rights) and deductions ("green” certificates and wind power bonuses).

Natural gas to Europe

Separation and storage of CO 2 from electricity generation(coal) Development of total estimated cost (separation, transport and storage) with further developed technology EUR/ton CO 2

Institutional, industrial and technical structures in 2020 Climate in focus – requires joint European actions Climate – one factor among others – other issues surface European co-ordination of the energy field Diverging European development in the energy field Level European playing field – yields an oligopoly situation – few large actors with similar business Different playing fields – different business opportunities – multitude of actors of different size

Sweden 2020? Climate - one factor among others Half nuclear phased out Large scale introduction of natural gas Weak incentives for energy efficiency Diverging European energy market Climate in focus No change in nuclear Limited use of natural gas Strong incentives for energy efficiency Co-ordinated European energy market

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